The Arizona Diamondbacks’ playoff odds: 110 games in

As we did last season, we’ll track the D-backs’ post-season chances every ten games as the season progresses, until the number either reaches 100% or 0%. Here’s where we stand, 110 games into the season.

• Fangraphs: 14.9% division, 32.7% wild-card = 47.5% playoffs
• Baseball Prospectus: 23.2% division, 29.9% wild-card = 53.0% playoffs
• FiveThirtyEight: 23% division, 28% wild-card = 51% playoffs
• NumberFire: 21.4% division, 29.2% wild-card = 50.6% playoffs

A slight up tick in all four systems of between three and five percent over the last ten games. That appears mostly to have come in our division odds, as the D-backs (briefly) enjoyed a spell at the top of the division again. The projections for the rest of the season will (presumably) also have taken into account the D-backs’ recent deals, picking up Eduardo Escobar to replace Jake Lamb and also strengthening the bullpen - though you’d have been forgiven for thinking otherwise last night! The D-backs still had the second-best record over the last ten games among all of the contenders, though as you can see below, it was very tightly bunched:

• Brewers: 7-4
• D-backs: 6-4
• Cardinals: 6-4
• Nationals: 6-4
• Dodgers: 6-5
• Rockies: 5-4
• Pirates: 5-4
• Giants: 5-4
• Braves: 5-4
• Phillies: 5-5
• Cubs: 4-6

Here are the graphs showing Arizona’s playoff odds for all four systems since Opening Day:

Across all four systems, the average right now is 50.5%, so we are still basically at a coin-toss. That is an increase of 4.1% over the 100-game mark, so hopefully it will continue to trend in the correct direction. The next ten games for the D-backs comprise the remainder of the series against the Giants, three at Chase against the Phillies, and the start of the road-trip, with a series in Cincinnati and the first of a quick two-game set in Texas. With the schedule in September seeming tough, it looks like the D-backs should aim to take advantage of the August contests, and anything less than a winning record before we next check in, will be very disappointing.

It’s interesting to compare the wide-open situation in the National League with that in the American League, where four of the five playoff spots are basically locked up, with more than 50 games to go. There, the Red Sox, Yankees, Indians and Astros are all at 99.7% or higher playoff odds. The sole question left is whether it will be the Athletics or Mariners who get the second wild-card spot. Oakland are slight favorites at Fangraphs (51.8 to the Mariners 47.8%), but since they combined for 99.6%, there’s precious little room for anyone else. Nobody outside those six is above 0.5%. Meanwhile, in the NL, only the Cubs and Dodgers are over even 90%, with eleven teams in total still having some hope.