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Place Your Bets on the 2018 Diamondbacks: Around the turn

We’ve reached the two-third point of the season, so let’s check in to the SnakePit Casino for an update.

Las Vegas Strip Exteriors Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

In case you missed it, before the season we continued a long tradition of opening the doors to the SnakePit Casino. There, we gave people $1,500 SnakePit Dollars, and invited them to wager on a series of over/under lines, for D-backs player and team performance this season. We capped each individual bet at $500, so you have to make at least three bets. With last night’s game against the Rangers, we have reached 23 of the way through the season, so let’s check in and see where those wagers stand.

For each bet below, you’ll first get the line drawn by Then, in brackets, the amount wagered over and under by the 37 participating gamblers, rounded to the nearest dollar. Finally, we have the end-of-year pace, based on games to this point, and whether that number will be over or under the line. All stats are based on the position through 108 games, up to and including Monday night [yesterday was... kinda busy on the SnakePit, hence I held this over to today!]

A win today against the Rangers would put the D-backs at .500 for the month of July. Given many people were predicting a May-like implosion for the team early on, that wouldn’t be too bad. But it is concerning that since the start of May, this team has played sub-.500 baseball for almost half a season, at 39-41. Of course, you could slice it another way, and point to the team’s 31-22 record since the END of May, a 95-win pace for the season. This inconsistency is part of what makes this team so hard to predict, but the good news is, how this season is remembered will be determined by what happens over the remaining 54 games, not the first 108.

  • Paul Goldschmidt: BA .299 (2059-401) - Pace .277, UNDER
  • Paul Goldschmidt: HR’s 31.5 (1307-2768) - Pace 3412 , OVER
  • Paul Goldschmidt: RBI’s 105.5 (2304-0) - Pace 87, UNDER
  • Paul Goldschmidt: Runs 105.5 (1159-94) - Pace 102, UNDER (was OVER)

Paul batted .305 with six home-runs since we last checked in. While above the line, the BA deficit resulting from his slump is likely too much: he’d need to hit better still, likely around .340 now, to make up the difference. However, the home-runs are still coming along nicely and his current pace is fine. What’s interesting is that his run-scoring has dropped off significantly, perhaps a result of him batting higher up the order on occasion, at #2? Here are his runs tallies by month: April 21; May 10; June 25; July 12. He has been crossing home-plate almost at the frequency he was during the slump, even though his batting average is more than twice what it was in May (.316 vs .144).

  • A.J. Pollock: HR’s 14.5 (1457-491) - Pace 21, OVER
  • A.J. Pollock: BA .280 (3157-139) - Pace .291, OVER
  • A.J. Pollock: SB 26.5 (279-2372) - Pace 15, UNDER

One more home-run and Pollock would claim the first line to be locked in on the over. Which is quite impressive, considering he has only appeared for the Diamondbacks in 62 games this year. Like other batters, most notably Nick Ahmed, Pollock seems to have tapped into a power stroke, and has been able to do so without it affecting his batting average. However, his pace on the bags definitely has been hurt by the missing time: he has only 10 SB so far. Though if we extrapolate that for a full, 162-game season, Pollock would be at 26.1 stolen-bases, so his rate hasn’t been far off the mark.

  • David Peralta: BA .290 (309-685) - Pace .285, UNDER
  • Jake Lamb: HR’s 27.5 (357-2531) - Pace 9, UNDER
  • Jake Lamb: RBI’s 89.5 (2887-33) - Pace 4612, UNDER
  • Steven Souza: HR’s 24.5 (157-4628) - Pace 3, UNDER
  • Steven Souza: RBI’s 70.5 (337-64) - Pace 2212, UNDER

Peralta and Lamb are currently both out of action with shoulder issues, though we have our fingers crossed the Freight Train will be back on the tracks before long. But this is shaping up to be more or less a lost season for both Jake and Steven, with each man likely to miss half our games or more. Those injuries were likely significant factors in the team needing to trade for Jon Jay and Eduardo Escobar, and those players will likely cut into playing time for the rest of the season. Peralta still has a shot at the BA line, regardless of time missed, but the others might as well have a fork stuck in them, because they are basically done.

  • Zack Greinke: Wins 14.5 (1659-468) - Pace 18, OVER
  • Zack Greinke: Ks 195.5 (405-2208) - Pace 21412, OVER
  • Zack Greinke: ERA 3.30 (1853-254) - Pace, 2.96, UNDER (was OVER)

Greinke has put up one of the most extended spells of great pitching we’ve seen over the past decade or so. Over the past seven starts, his line is:
Greinke: 46.2 IP, 34 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 5 BB, 48 SO, 1.16 ERA, 6-0 record
He is on pace to match last year’s K tally of 215, and has got a shot at Dan Haren’s tally of 223 in 2009, the most by a D-back since the Big Unit was in his prime (I think Randy’s total of 290 from 2004 is probably out of reach!). This recent surge from Zack has pulled his ERA down below three, and beneath the line. A long way from the 4.37 of his first season with Arizona, when the huge contract looked a terrible mistake.

  • Robbie Ray: Wins 13.5 (4762-508) - Pace 412, UNDER
  • Robbie Ray: Ks 219.5 (1561-0) - Pace 12012, UNDER
  • Robbie Ray: ERA 3.30 (1227-1529) - Pace 5.05, OVER

Consistency is the problem for Ray. He has had some very solid outings, such as the seven innings of one-run ball against the Cubs in Chicago. But he has yet to put together consecutive quality starts, or indeed, consecutive six inning games, regardless of runs allowed. His ERA has spent the month bouncing above and below five, and there’s little or no chance of any of these lines changing between now and the end of the season. There’s a good case to be made, given our high pre-season hopes for him, that Robbie is the biggest disappointment of the 2018 season.

The standings

The following lines changed from the half-way point:

  • Paul Goldschmidt: Runs 105.5 (1159-94) - Pace 102, UNDER (was OVER)
  • Zack Greinke: ERA 3.30 (1853-254) - Pace, 2.96, UNDER (was OVER)

Both work in favor of the house, with betting heavily on the over for each line. As a result, the collective outcome of the bets has gone from about $4,700 in the black, from the customers’ perspective, to $561.10 in the red. However, we do have a new leader, as makakilo is now on the right side of Greinke’s ERA, and his $100 bet on that moves him to a $1,200 profit, edging out the unchanged eel at $1,100 up. At the other end, poor hventure now sits in lonely splendor, five hundred dollars worse off than anyone else! Here are all the current accounts of the participants this year:

  • Makakilo - $1,200.00
  • eel - $1,100.00
  • Oz-Dbacks - $900.00
  • Lamar Jimmerson - $600.00
  • Wesley Baier - $500.00
  • Craig’s City Counsell - $300.00
    Michael McDermott
  • SenSurround - $207.56
  • Hazzard21 - $200.00
  • Keegan Thompson - $0.00
  • soco - -$100.00
  • david.munter - -$234.00
  • preston.salisbury - -$300.00
  • ryeandi - -$394.70
  • AzDbackfanInDc - -$499.96
  • fsudude - -$500.00
  • GuruB - -$700.00
  • Steven Burt - -$740.00
  • JoeCB1991 - -$900.00
  • smartplays - -$1,000.00
  • hventure - -$1,500.00