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Preview #88: 7/5 vs. Padres

Excessive heat in Phoenix: will that warm up the D-backs offense?

Arizona Diamondbacks v Miami Marlins Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images

Today's Lineups

SAN DIEGO PADRES ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Travis Jankowski - CF Jon Jay - LF
Carlos Asuaje - 2B Nick Ahmed - SS
Wil Myers - LF Paul Goldschmidt - 1B
Eric Hosmer - 1B A.J. Pollock - CF
Hunter Renfroe - RF Steven Souza - RF
Cory Spangenberg - 3B Ketel Marte - 2B
Freddy Galvis - SS Jake Lamb - 3B
Austin Hedges - C John Ryan Murphy - C
Eric Lauer - LHP Shelby Miller - RHP

The Diamondbacks didn’t hit a home-run last night. That has become par for the course of late. Going back to the second game of the Miami series, they have just three long-balls in a total of 299 at-bats, and the last time anyone other than Paul Goldschmidt hit one was on June 27, eight days ago. It goes without saying, going deep makes it easier to win games, but you might be surprised how much easier. Here’s a breakdown of the results for the 2018 Diamondbacks, based on the number of home-runs hit in that game.

  • Zero home-runs: 11-26.
  • One home-run: 15-10.
  • Two or more home-runs: 22-3

Something similar goes on the other side of the coin, naturally. However, it’s interesting to note that, while the first couple of categories show a similar win percentage for the hitting team, allowing two or more does not doom the D-backs to defeat in the same way that hitting 2+ all but guarantees victory. Here are the results for the team, based on the home-runs allowed.

  • Zero home-runs: 23-10
  • One home-run: 15-9
  • Two or more home-runs: 10-20

This may be because a slightly higher percentage of the home-runs Arizona allows are of the solo kind. It’s also worth noting that Arizona seem particularly averse to hitting home-runs when behind. Of the 95 in total so far, only 18 (so less than one-fifth) have come with the team trailing. Generally, teams will tend to hit more home-runs when ahead than behind, but across all of MLB the trailing figure is 34%, rather than the 19% for the D-backs. No team in the majors has hit fewer home-runs when behind than Arizona. The 18 are divided as follows: Paul Goldschmidt (8), David Peralta (3), Jake Lamb and Daniel Descalso (2 each), with Nick Ahmed, Christian Walker and Chris Owings having one.