The Gist

We’re great, they suck. For reference see this.

Fangraphs Playoff Odds

Diamondbacks: 50.5%

Rockies: 22.1%

Last time these two teams met it went exactly how I predicted. Diamondbacks only took the first game of 3, while Miller and Ray struggled. Now Shelby sits back on the bench with a sore elbow (we’re all hoping that’s all it is, no results announced yet of the MRI).

This time around I think the pitching match ups are going to tell the story again.

Offense

The edge on Offense goes to the Rockies. The Rockies lead the Diamondbacks in just about every stat offensively.

Pitching wise, lets just stick with the bullpen since team starter stats don’t really matter. Individual starters do.

Honestly, even factoring in ball park, the Diamondbacks are miles ahead. Fewer walks, more runners left on base, and a stunningly good ERA.

If any of these games are close late, I would look to see the Diamondbacks pull out on top. However I think these games will largely come down to the starters.

Probable Starters

Game 1

German Marquez (RHP, 8-8, 4.81 ERA) vs Robbie Ray (LHP, 3-2, 5.03 ERA)

German has been struggling a bit lately. In his last 7 starts he’s given up 40 hits, 24 earned runs, and a 5.49 ERA. But when he’s not pitching at home he really seems to shine. A commanding 2.62 ERA, with only 40 hits and 16 earned runs over the course of 55 innings seems to indicate this 23 year old has lots of upside. His strikeout to walks is a big part of his success on the road averaging 4 strikeouts per walk and 9.16 strikeouts per 9 innings.

With Robbie Ray it remains to be seen if he can get back to his dominating self. In the month of July Robbie has gone 0-2 in 3 games, pitched 14.2 innings, given up 18 hits and 12 runs, and earned a 7.36 ERA. Injuries are often difficult for pitchers to come back from so there’s definitely going to be a grace period before Robbie feels comfortable. But even before going on the DL, Robbie was struggling a bit more than last year. In his first 6 games Robbie was only pitching to a 4.88 ERA as opposed to the 2.89 he pitched all of last year.

Game 2

Kyle Freeland (LHP, 8-6, 3.11 ERA) vs Zack Godley (RHP, 11-6, 4.61 ERA)

In Kyles last 7 starts he’s been arguably the Rockies best pitcher with a 2.49 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and only giving up 12 runs. In his last game against the DBacks he went 5.1 innings only giving up 1 run but only getting 4 strikeouts. As opposed to German, Kyle seems to struggle more on the road than he does at home. At home he’s sporting a nice 2.76 ERA, but on the road it’s up a tick to 3.38. I’d say he’s still rather good either way.

Zack is still a conundrum wrapped in riddle put in a mystery box. Zack has been much better as of late earning a 3.89 over his last 7 starts. But the story still remains to be his lack of control. Despite his winning record, a 1.528 WHIP leaves much to be questioned. He’s still very much a ground out pitcher averaging 1.68 ground outs for every fly ball out. We’ll see if he can continue to throw more strikes and get those ground outs.

Game 3

TBA vs Zack Greinke (RHP, 10-5, 3.18 ERA)

Zack has performed exactly how you might expect him to but there is one stat that jumped out at me. His strike outs to walk ratio. 5.39 strike out per walk! That’s truly an amazing stat. He’s always been seen as a good mixer of pitches and crafty, but this is a career high for him. What more is there to say about Zack that hasn’t already been said? He’s still the ace of the club and will probably get the win.

Prediction

I’m going to once again predict the Rockies win 2 out of 3. But I am willing to concede it hinges on which Zack Godley shows up. I don’t think offensively these two teams are too far apart from each other. The starting pitching will be the determining factor in my estimation, but as I said, if it comes down to a battle of the bullpens I have confidence the Diamondbacks will win that match up.