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Preview #63: 6/9 @ Rockies

Can Koch avoid being cooked in Coors?

Miami Marlins v Arizona Diamondbacks Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images

Today's Lineups

Jon Jay - RF DJ LeMahieu - 2B
Paul Goldschmidt - 1B Charlie Blackmon - CF
Jake Lamb - 3B Nolan Arenado - 3B
Daniel Descalso - 2B Carlos Gonzalez - RF
David Peralta - LF Trevor Story - SS
Jarrod Dyson - CF Gerardo Parra - LF
Nick Ahmed - SS Ian Desmond - 1B
Alex Avila - C Tony Wolters - C
Matt Koch - RHP Chad Bettis - RHP

First things first, because this is important. I’ll (maybe) remind you again in the Gameday Thread, but today’s game is not on Fox Sports Arizona. It’s being nationally-broadcast so is on Fox. Actually, I’ve changed my mind. I’m not going to mention it in the Gameday Thread, simply so I can tell who doesn’t read the previews, and know where to direct the air-strike by SnakePit Team Six... Hehehe. Hopefully it’ll go better than the last time we were exposed to a national audience - the Facebook game against the Giants earlier in the week. On the plus side, no Eric Byrnes. At least, I presume, unless he storms the Fox booth like Jesse Ventura on a mission.

I can’t say I’m too confident. Matt Koch and Corrs Field [I’m leaving that typo there, simply for the amusing images it creates in my mind] are a troubling match. While his ERA is a very respectable 3.76, the expected value (FIP) sites north of five. However, his last outing was a significant uptick in terms of strikeouts: six in seven innings, while still being very efficient, throwing only 84 pitches. On the other hand, it was against the Marlins in Phoenix, and you’d think the Rockies in Denver might be more of a challenge. I say “might”, because collectively, by wRC+, Colorado’s hitters are actually worse than Miami, coming in 80 compared to 82, making them the very worst in the majors.

Playing half your games a mile high helps conceal this fact, with a very respectable OPS at home of .795. But take the team out of Coors and that drops by 127 points: the Rockies hit .222 with a .296 on-base percentage [this year they have hit significantly more home-runs on the road than in Denver, by a 43-32 margin, but that’s mostly an artifact of scheduling. Their slugging percentage is 82 points higher in Coors]. The problem is that Coors cuts both ways, with Rockies’ pitchers being tagged for a .290 average and .852 OPS. That’s why they are 11-17 so far there, a home record almost identical to those Marlins, who are 11-18. Koch willing, that’s where Colorado will end the day, too.