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Place Your Bets on the 2018 Diamondbacks: Mid-way mark

We’ve reached the half-way point, so how are your bets holding up?

Las Vegas Photo by Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images

In case you missed it, before the season we continued a long tradition of opening the doors to the SnakePit Casino. There, we gave people $1,500 SnakePit Dollars, and invited them to wager on a series of over/under lines, for D-backs player and team performance this season. We capped each individual bet at $500, so you have to make at least three bets. I forgot about the update at the end of May, probably because I was too busy mourning what I was assured was the death of the Diamondbacks’ season... But here we are, at the half-way point, with the state through the end of the road-trip this morning in Miami.

For each bet below, you’ll first get the line drawn by Bovada.lv. Then, in brackets, the amount wagered over and under by the 37 participating gamblers, rounded to the nearest dollar. Finally, we have the end-of-year pace, based on games to this point, and whether that number will be over or under the line. All stats are based on the position through 27 games, which was yesterday afternoon’s loss to the Nationals.

The team has cooled off just a TAD, having been on pace for 114 (!) wins when we first checked in. But they are still comfortably on schedule to hit the over, needing to go only 39-42 the rest of the way to make that happen. Right now, they project slightly better than last year’s 93 wins, and with the return of Ray, Pollock and Souza likely providing a boost in the second half, I’m feeling optimistic that the optimistic among us will be rewarded for their optimism.

  • Paul Goldschmidt: BA .299 (2059-401) - Pace .267, UNDER
  • Paul Goldschmidt: HR’s 31.5 (1307-2768) - Pace 34, OVER (was UNDER)
  • Paul Goldschmidt: RBI’s 105.5 (2304-0) - Pace 84, UNDER
  • Paul Goldschmidt: Runs 105.5 (1159-94) - Pace 112, OVER

Paul Goldschmidt’s June. With two games left, his line is .380/.475/.780 for a 1.255 OPS. There have been precisely two player months (min 70 PA) with a higher OPS in franchise history: Gonzo’s June 2001 (1.350) and J.D, Martinez’s Sept/Oct last year (1.382). Yet Goldy’s average has actually dropped since we checked in at the end of April. That’s thanks to the awfulness of the first three weeks of May: 1st-22nd, he was batting less than a buck (.096). But he has 12 home-runs in his last 31 games, which has pushed his HR projection back over the expected line. Though he still only has as many RBI as Daniel Descalso!

  • A.J. Pollock: HR’s 14.5 (1457-491) - Pace 22, OVER
  • A.J. Pollock: BA .280 (3157-139) - Pace .293, OVER (was UNDER)
  • A.J. Pollock: SB 26.5 (279-2372) - Pace 18, UNDER (was OVER)

In the first check-in, we wrote “What a difference a healthy Pollock makes to this team.” Two weeks later, he avulsion fractured, and hasn’t been seen since, though the team has withstood the loss better than many expected. But it tells you something about how hot his start was, that even after missing half our games to this point, he’s still comfortably on pace to blow away the HR line. Indeed, he only needs four more for the book to be closed on that. He also pushed average over the line before going down, but between a quiet May (only three SB) and the injury, the line for stolen-bases has gone in the opposite direction.

  • David Peralta: BA .290 (309-685) - Pace .278, UNDER (was OVER)
  • Jake Lamb: HR’s 27.5 (357-2531) - Pace 12, UNDER
  • Jake Lamb: RBI’s 89.5 (2887-33) - Pace 48, UNDER
  • Steven Souza: HR’s 24.5 (157-4628) - Pace 0, UNDER
  • Steven Souza: RBI’s 70.5 (337-64) - Pace 2, UNDER

Since last time, we have at least got Lamb back, though after missing almost a full quarter of the season, it’s going to be very difficult for him to make up lost time. Souza came back, did nothing and went away again. Sitting on no home-runs and one RBI, it’s safe to say he has not yet quite performed up to expectations. Peralta is having an interesting season: he seems to have traded home-runs for average. He’s on pace for a thirty-homer year, but his average over the last forty-odd games is down around the .260 mark. I’m inclined to view this as a reasonable trade-off.

  • Zack Greinke: Wins 14.5 (1659-468) - Pace 16, OVER (was UNDER)
  • Zack Greinke: Ks 195.5 (405-2208) - Pace 216, OVER (was UNDER)
  • Zack Greinke: ERA 3.30 (1853-254) - Pace, 3.41, OVER

Heck of a road-trip Greinke had, going 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA and 18:2 K:BB ratio, over 19.1 innings of work. That has helped push the lines for both wins and strikeouts up above the betting lines, though both remain close. A clearly reduced velocity - his fastball is averaging just 89.3 mph - clearly hasn’t been a problem, with Greinke finding ways to get batters out, including that delightful eephus pitch. Since the end of April, Zack has been very good, with a 2.82 ERA over 11 starts. And that’s not including his hitting and base-running, which were both in evidence today in Miami.

  • Robbie Ray: Wins 13.5 (4762-508) - Pace 6, UNDER
  • Robbie Ray: Ks 219.5 (1561-0) - Pace 102, UNDER (was OVER)
  • Robbie Ray: ERA 3.30 (1227-1529) - Pace 4.01, OVER

The wins and strikeouts lines are both in serious trouble. If Ray has missed one month, there might still have been a chance, but the oblique costing him almost two - likely 10 or 11 starts - makes them almost impossible. With good health presumed (touch wood), we’re probably looking at 16 starts for Ray in the second half. To get across the lines he needs 11 of those to be personal (not team) wins, and average 11 strikeouts per game. For context, Robbie has three wins in seven starts, and just one 11 K outing to date. His start against the Marlins was one of his best of the year, however, amid talk of a mechanical adjustment. Counterpoint: it was against the Marlins...

The standings

A lot of switching of the lines since last time, with seven bets now projected on the other side from where they were. The most significant financially was Pollock’s batting average going from under to over, which was a net swing of slightly more than three thousand SnakePit dollars against the house. Surging to the top is eel, who was at -$100 after the first month, but is now at +$1,100. Six of his seven bets are looking promising at the current time, with only Ray’s Wins going the wrong way. However, it’s close at the top, with red_leader, Makakilo and suroeste sitting on +$1,000, while Michael McDermott and Oz-Dbacks are just another hundred SnakePit bucks further back.

At the other end, a moment of silence for hventure, whose wagers on over Lamb RBIs, over Goldy’s BA, and under team Wins... Yeah. About that... But the overall line across everyone’s bets, is in the black by S$4,765.98, an improvement from the end of April of about S$3,700 Here are the full standings.

Bettor Value

  1. eel $1,100.00
  2. red_leader $1,000.00
    Makakilo
    suroeste
  3. Michael McDermott $900.00
    Oz-Dbacks
  4. CumulusChoir $700.00
  5. Lamar Jimmerson $600.00
  6. Wesley Baier $500.00
    BenSharp
    soco
    shoewizard
    TucsonTim
    Diamondhacks
  7. Craig’s City Counsell $300.00
    MikeDavisAZ
    Xerostomia
    MrMrrbi
    Umbrella24
    Imstillhungry95
  8. SenSurround $264.64
  9. Hazzard21 $200.00
  10. onedotfive $0.00
    Keegan Thompson
  11. david.munter -$234.00
  12. preston.salisbury -$300.00
    Wtwcats
  13. ryeandi -$394.70
  14. Steven Burt -$420.00
  15. AzDbackfanInDc -$499.96
  16. fsudude -$500.00
    Fangdango
    Sprankton
  17. JoeCB1991
    GuruB
  18. smartplays -$1,150.00
  19. hventure -$1,500.00