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Preview, #49: 5/23 @ Brewers

Remember when the D-backs couldn’t lose a series? Fun times...

Washington Nationals  v Arizona Diamondbacks Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images

Today's Lineups

David Peralta - LF Hernan Perez - LF
Nick Ahmed - SS Christian Yelich - CF
Chris Owings - CF Jesus Aguilar - 1B
Paul Goldschmidt - 1B Travis Shaw - 3B
Ketel Marte - 2B Domingo Santana - RF
John Ryan Murphy - C Jonathan Villar - 2B
Socrates Brito - RF Tyler Saladino - SS
Deven Marrero - 3B Jett Bandy - C
Zack Godley - RHP Brent Suter - LHP

I wonder what the record is for greatest difference in win percentage over consecutive months? The 2018 Diamondbacks feel like they might be in with a shot, their April and May currently having a differential of 470 points. They went 18-7 in April for a .720 W%, but are only 5-15 in May, for a .250 W%. They didn’t lose a single series in April. They are currently a walk-off win against the Astros from not having won a single series in May. The turn-around has been staggering. It’s all about the offense, there’s no doubt about it. While the ERA has increased this month, 3.81 is still pretty respectable - it’s better than the NL average (3.88). It’s the offense which has cratered.

Apr: .235/.317/.422 = .738 OPS
May: .186/.261/.292 = .553 OPS

Arizona have gone from tied for third in the league by OPS, to dead-last - and it’s not even close. The 14th-placed Padres are ahead of us by 89 points. They are closer to the Rockies in eighth, than the 15th-placed D-backs. We lead the lead in strikeouts, yet that aggression has not shown up in any power: we are last in home-runs. We have scored a mere 46 runs; the Mets are the only other team with fewer than 69 runs to this point in May. The average for Arizona is now down to 2.30 runs per game, and they have a shot at the lowest rate in the majors, since they came into existence. That currently belongs to the 2014 Padres, who scored 60 over 27 games in June, for an average of 2.22.

The D-backs have seven games left, and need to score fifteen or more runs to avoid tying that mark. It’s possible - but by no means guaranteed. Over the last seven games, for example, they have managed only twelve. You would think that facing the A’s and Reds for the final two series of the month should help, but I seem to recall we said the same thing about facing the then-slumping Mets, and it didn’t appear to make much of a difference. At this point, about all I can say is “We’ll see,” as the team tries to avoid another series sweep. With Zack Godley having walked 15 batters in his last five starts and 25 innings, I can’t say I feel over-confident, but that’s why we play the games! Join us! Or not. S’okay...