As we did last season, we’ll track the D-backs’ post-season chances every ten games as the season progresses, until the number either reaches 100% or 0%. Here’s where we stand after the first 20 games of the season:
- Fangraphs: 15.4% division, 25.6% wild-card = 41.0% playoffs
- Baseball Prospectus: 54.1% division, 26.9% wild-card = 81.0% playoffs
- FiveThirtyEight: 43% division, 24% wild-card = 67% playoffs
- NumberFire: 55.4% division, 19.8% wild-card = 74.2% playoffs
It’s interesting to compare and contrast the way the four systems have reacted to the Diamondbacks’ last ten results. Fangraphs thinks we’re slightly less likely to make the post-season, mostly because our division chances have dropped, with the Dodgers rebounding from their terrible start. But Baseball Prospectus now have joined Number Fire in making Arizona favorites for the division, boosting the odds they give us of winning the NL West by more than 10%. 81% playoff odds and we still have a week left in April? I’ll take that! Meanwhile, both FiveThirtyEight and NumberFire have us little changed from the previous standings.
Overall, the D-backs slightly improved their average playoff odds, going up from 63.0% to 65.8%. The next ten games will cover the end of the Padres series this afternoon, then a potentially tough road trip through Philadelphia and Washington, before returning to finish off the month with three against the Dodgers. If we can sustain those playoff odds when we next check in, I think I’d be fine with that.