Okay, ten games might be a bit early to be thinking about the playoffs. But an 8-2 start, and a 3.5 game lead in the division, is not bad at all. As I mentioned last week, it’s worth remembering that the five teams in the National League who were in the playoff spots at the end of April, were the same five teams who ended up making the post-season. And the D-backs have done it over ten games, all of which were against teams projected before Opening Day to have winning records. The projections are sitting up and taking notice. Fangraphs has bumped up our expected win tally by four games, and our playoff odds there are up around 19%, more than any other team in the majors bar the Mets.
As we did last season, we’ll track the D-backs’ post-season chances every ten games as the season progresses, until the number either reaches 100% or 0%. Here’s where we stand after the first 10 games of the season:
- Fangraphs: 17.9% division, 25.8% wild-card = 43.7% playoffs
- Baseball Prospectus: 43.8% division, 25.8% wild-card = 69.6% playoffs
- FiveThirtyEight: 40% division, 25% wild-card = 65% playoffs
- NumberFire: 55.4% division, 18.3% wild-card = 73.7% playoffs
The average of the four above comes in at 63.0%. For comparison, last year, our playoff odds at Fangraphs didn’t reach that level until May 26, and was lower than this figure as late as June 6. So, we’re certainly ahead of the 2017 schedule - although a good chunk of that is down to significantly lower projections for the rest of last season.
For this edition, I’ll also throw in the pure ZIPS projections (Fangraphs uses a mix of that and Steamer), since Dan Szymborski posted updated numbers for them earlier today.
Stay tuned for an update, in another 10 games or so...