2018 Baseball Winter Meetings Diamondbacks Preview

Major League Baseball’s Winter Meetings start on this coming Sunday, December 9th, with the first open session on Monday morning and concluding with the rule 5 draft on Thursday December 13th. A full schedule of events can be found HERE

As Mike Hazen and his Baseball Operations Team head to the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas this weekend, having just traded franchise icon Paul Goldschmidt, and adding several players back, there are still numerous questions to be answered and probable moves to occur. Will Zack Greinke be traded? If yes, will the DBacks eat enough money to actually receive back a prospect of note, or will it be a straight salary dump? Is the team rebuilding or retooling? Which label to apply is still up for debate, or even TBD.

As things currently stand, after the Goldy trade and recent non tenders of Shelby Miller , Chris Owings, and Brad Boxberger , the team is looking at roughly a 118 M payroll commitment, which is well below last year’s opening day and season ending payrolls. (130-140M respectively) That figure includes the recent signing of Merrill Kelly for 2M in 2019, as well as league minimum salary for Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly, both of whom are expected to be on the major league roster. Of note, the “on paper” WAR projection adds up to a 79 win team at the moment. That’s because there are positive projections for Weaver, both Kelly’s, and Walker. Collectively they are offsetting some of Goldy’s loss.

The below table includes playing time, WAR and Payroll projections for players with guaranteed contracts, salary estimates for arbitration eligible players, and several pre arb, league minimum players that will clearly be on the opening day roster barring a trade or injury. The “Replacement” player sections are merely placeholders. The IP and PA allotted in the replacement slots need to be filled by somebody. Whether they are filled with internal depth players at league minimum salary, or by players brought in through trade or free agency that might cost more is TBD. The salary shown there is the least amount possible to fill those innings and PA. As additional moves are made and the personnel changes, we’ll update the Payroll and Projections tracking sheet accordingly:

Internal Starting Rotation options to fill remaining innings include Jon Duplantier and Taylor Widener, neither of whom are on the 40 man roster at the moment, as well as Taylor Clarke, who is on the 40 man. (I suggest you push a click through to scope out the 40 man roster) Mike Hazen indicated that the rotation is set, “in it’s current form”. However a Greinke trade could change things.

As for the bullpen, Hazen indicated they still have some work to do, which was a little surprising to me. In addition to the 7 relievers listed in the table above, (in which Jimmie Sherfy already features prominently) internal options also include Yoan Lopez who made a strong impression during his September call up last year, as well as Jake Barrett and Joey Krehbiel , who made a couple of appearances last year and may get another look. Also watch for Kevin Ginkel, who put up video game K/BB ratios in 2018. (117 K, 14 BB between A+, AA, and the AFL).

Despite all these internal options, Mike Hazen’s M.O. has been to add a couple of veteran relievers, including finding established closers to fill that role each of the last two years with...ahem...mixed results. This year might be no exception, as the team was recently linked to veteran Joakim Soria, who has 220 career saves and a 148 ERA+

On the position player side, with the departure of AJ Pollock to free agency, one obvious hole is Center Field, and Hazen indicated the outfield is an area they are still looking to work on. The team has also indicated they may try Ketel Marte in CF. Jarrod Dyson is coming off a season in which he it .189/43 OPS+, before suffering a season ending groin injury that required surgery. The defensive standout is signed for 2019, but is not viewed as a full time option. If they do end up going with the Marte to CF plan, then most likely Eduardo Escobar sees significant time at 2b. However with the uncertainty surrounding Jake Lamb and his recovery from shoulder surgery, as well as his persistent issues with hitting left hand pitching, the team is probably looking to shore up the infield some more, especially with the likely departure of free agent Daniel Descalso.

Whether the team acquires a true center fielder, or opts for the experimental route with Marte they have some significant holes to fill that won’t likely be filled with internal options. It would seem like this is the last chance for Socrates Brito to make his mark in the majors with this organization, but just the fact that the team has been looking at Marte as a CF option indicates the out of options Brito’s future with the organization may not be very strong or long. Other players on the 40 man include Christian Walker, who I plugged into the first base projection for now, as well as Kevin Cron, Ildemaro Vargas, and Domingo Leyba. Any or all could see playing time before September call ups. Vargas, due to his position flexibility is in a strong position to win the utility role out of spring training, as he can play any of SS, 2b, or 3b.

And finally, Hazen made clear the team will continue with the 3 catcher model so Kelly has been inserted accordingly in a time share with Alex Avila & John Ryan Murphy.

Fingers crossed they don’t pull the trigger on a Greinke trade before this article gets published. I’ve already revised it twice. :)