Arizona Diamondbacks October confidence poll

September results

Another feeble attempt at ballot-box stuffing, I see. Which completely backfired, because it means I simply discount all the “1” votes - whether given legitimately or not. Hence, you actually succeeded in raising the overall score, by getting any legit 1’s discarded too. Good work! Your mothers must be very proud... :) LOLDodgers.

• 0% - 1 (not confident in the slightest)
• 5% - 2
• 12% - 3
• 19% - 4
• 19% - 5
• 17% - 6
• 12% - 7
• 7% - 8
• 9% - 9 (very, very, VERY confident)

However, there’s no doubt that the awfulness of the final three games of the season in Chavez Ravine, along with the looming terror of the September schedule had a significant dampening impact on fan confidence. 36% were below five, a very sharp uptick from the 7% who dwelled down there at the beginning of August. 28% were still at seven or higher, yet even that was kess than half of the 64% who occupied the same zone the previous month. However, oddly, the nines fractionally increased.

Below, you can see the breakdown of voting for the past year. Time progresses from the top down, beginning with the September 2017 poll.

All told, that reversed the gains shown at the start of September, and then a little bit more. The overall average dropped from 6.75 back to 5.40, still slightly higher than it was in June (5.18), but clearly concerned about what was to come. Here’s the chart with all the poll averages.

Interestingly, we now sit almost exactly in the middle between the confidence at the start of September 2016 (2.79) and September 2017 (7.84). That’s notable, because last year, we were a lot further back in the division, yet had a significantly better record than this season. Confidence seems to be tied more directly to playoff odds overall, rather than directly to the standings. Next time, once we get this month’s results in, I’ll plot the two against each other and see if that holds up.

October poll

Well, it’s over now. The D-backs fell out of first, out of the playoffs and only just managed to finish the season above .500. We look forward to an uncertain winter, at least until Mike Hazen and the front-office show us what direction they’ll be taking. As we head into the off-season, how are we feeling? Please explain yourself in the comments, as ever.