NOTE: Article edited to include key off season dates. See bottom of article
Periodically throughout the off season I will post updates to the tables below showing the current status of 2019 team payroll and a rough WAR projection. This is not intended to be a projection of where they will end up, it’s simply a tracking chart to see where they are at the moment. As there are major moves or changes, updates will be posted accordingly.
Just a few comments of explanation before proceeding to the tables:
War projections are based on a 3 year weighted avg, combining both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs WAR. The projected 2019 playing time numbers (IP and PA) are mine. The 2019 WAR projection is therefore arrived at by taking the rate of the 3 year weighted avg and applying it to my playing time projection.
Salary numbers are either known guaranteed numbers combined with estimates for arbitration and pre arbitration salaries yet to be known or published.
“Replacement” in this case is simply the innings or PA that still need to be accounted for. I am not projecting that those innings will ultimately go to replacement level players at league minimum wages. Think of those as playing time and salary placeholders until we know more and can fill in the blanks. But they do serve a purpose in letting us know where the current holes to be filled are.
So as you can see I have inserted Eduardo Escobar into the table. As Mike Hazen made clear Eduardo is here to play every day, I gave him 600 PA. We don’t actually know the exact breakdown yet of how his 3 yrs 21 M is allocated, but I inserted 7M for now. It could be less if the contract is a little back loaded.
This leaves roughly 850 PA to be accounted for at the moment, most of it from the outfield and catching. The number of outfield PA’s that need to be found would increase if Chris Owings were to be non tendered.
I am estimating the team needs to account for at least 900 IP from Starters and 550 IP from relievers, and therefore are still 280 and 110 IP shy, respectively. Adding Patrick Corbin back in would be nice, but would appear to be a budget buster. Getting more , (and productive) innings out of Shelby Miller would help. Assuming he isn’t non tendered.
One little side note: The DBacks have seemingly zigged while the rest of the league has zagged when it comes to SP and RP innings pitched allocation. The 900 IP projection from SP is actually lower than the last 2 years. I am assuming league wide trends impact the team a bit more than they have the last 2 years. But maybe not.
A replacement level team is expected to win about 48 games, so to get the team win projection you simply add the projected WAR (Wins ABOVE replacment) to 48 to get a rough estimate of team win total. So as of right now they project to about a .500 team on paper for 142 Million dollars. It will be fun to see how the rest of the off season unfolds and if the team can get that “on paper” win projection up into the high 80’s and what it will take from a payroll standpoint to get there.
KEY OFF SEASON DATES
November 1: Earliest eligible players can file for free agency
November 1-5 is the 5 day “quiet period” when teams can negotiate exclusively with their own free agents.
At the end of the 5 day quiet period teams must decide whether or not to extend a qualifying offer, and the player has 15 days from end of World series, to accept or reject.
Teams must also decide at end of 5 day quiet period whether or not to pick up player options.
November 6th: Free agents can sign with any team they wish.
November 6-8th : GM’s meeting in Carlsbad California
November 30th: Non tender deadline. This is when we find out if any player on the above lists will be cut loose
December 9-13th: Winter Meetings, Las Vegas
December 13th: Rule 5 draft
January 11th: Players and teams exchange salary arbitration figures
February 1-20: Arbitration hearings