In case you missed it, before the season we continued a long tradition of opening the doors to the SnakePit Casino. There, we gave people $1,500 SnakePit Dollars, and invited them to wager on a series of over/under lines, for D-backs player and team performance this season. We capped each individual bet at $500, so you have to make at least three bets. Today, we have the last update on the standings before the end of the season reckoning: as well as the financial ramifications, it actually offers a good “snapshot” of the overall state of the team.
For each bet below, you’ll first get the line drawn by Bovada.lv. Then, in brackets, the amount wagered over and under by gamblers. Finally, we have the end-of-year pace, based on the first month of the season, and whether that number will be over or under the line, with changes from last time shown in bold. All stats are based on the position through 108 games, which was yesterday afternoon’s thrilling win over the Cubs.
- Diamondbacks team - Wins 77½ ($3,293.35-$2,344.33) - PACE 93, OVER CLOSED
Technically, this wasn’t quite closed after Friday’s game, but Saturday’s was the 78th win, so there’s no way this can be anything but over now. Being able to make such a statement with a month to go seemed very unlikely after the Twins series, but the team completely turned things around since, winning 12 of the last 13 games. Next up, will be locking up our first winning season since 2011. Four wins are needed for that - it would be nice to be able to do so by the end of the series against the Dodgers in Los Angeles!
- Paul Goldschmidt - BA .299 ($2,488.31-$1,016.33) - PACE .317, OVER
- Paul Goldschmidt - HR 30½ ($166.33-$3,192.65) - PACE 40, OVER CLOSED
- Paul Goldschmidt - RBI 100½ ($2,376.36-$83.33) - PACE 131, OVER CLOSED
- Paul Goldschmidt - Runs 99½ ($1,015.75-$83.33) - PACE 122, OVER CLOSED
It’s weird. I’ve probably seen more BS chatter about Goldschmidt “slumping”, “struggling” and “looking bad” this season than any previous one. But Paul clearly does not care, and is continuing to put up numbers which arguably make him close to the favorite for the NL MVP voting [it may well depend on how many more home-runs Stanton hits] But he has crushed his marks for HR, RBI and Runs with a month left, and is on pace for one of the best seasons ever by a Diamondbacks position player.
- A.J. Pollock - HR 14½ ($4,145.10-$166.33) - PACE 11, UNDER
- A.J. Pollock - BA .290 ($1,224.66-$335.76) - PACE .266, UNDER
- A.J. Pollock - Stolen Bases 29½ ($900.66-$1,928.05) - PACE 22, UNDER
Pollock has been having some significant issues at the plate for a while. Over the period under discussion, he batted below the Uecker Line hitting just .191. However, a significant factor was a BABIP of .187, and it’s not as if his plate discipline gave out, with a K:BB of only 15:10. Pollock did also hit four home-runs, well above the expected pace, and he does have a small, 5-game hitting streak, so maybe things are coming around a bit for him. But he will probably need to hit around .300 the rest of the way, to get this one back above the line.
- David Peralta - BA .290 ($0.00-$4,619.30) - PACE .299, OVER
The Freight Train has been running to schedule, hitting .292 this period. While the average has dipped down below the .300 mark, there’s still enough of a buffer that he should be fine, short of hitting .250 the rest of the way. Interesting that he has taken over from Pollock at the top of the order, though results there have been a little mixed, with David batting .267 and having an OPS of .766, compared to figures of .324 and .881 in the #2 position.
- Jake Lamb - HR's 24½ ($1,383.66-$573.58) - PACE 31, OVER CLOSED
- Jake Lamb - RBI 79½ ($2,665.79-$0.00) - PACE 116, OVER CLOSED
- Yasmany Tomas - HR 24½ ($749.99-$572.44) - PACE 8, UNDER CLOSED
- Yasmany Tomas - RBI 80½ ($266.66-$1,309.95) - PACE 32, UNDER CLOSED
Lamb has been having his struggles of late too, batting .202 with only 12 runs driven in since last time. However, that book was already closed, and the home-run line joined it, as Jake hit four long-balls, giving him a total of 27 for the year. Also closed - but in rather less pleasant circumstances - are the two wages involving Tomas, who underwent season-ending surgery to address his groin issue. Something I wouldn’t wish on my worst enemy. I think it’s safe to say that the $9.5 million could have been better spent. Don’t worry, folks: only $46 million more to go!
- Zack Greinke - Wins 13½ ($2,099.06-$1,083.33) - PACE 19, OVER CLOSED
- Zack Greinke - Strikeouts 179½ ($782.00-$3,111.31) - PACE 226, OVER CLOSED
- Zach Greinke - ERA 3.40 ($2,532.99-$985.22) - PACE 3.08, UNDER
With a record of 16-4, Greinke cruised past the line, and has a shot at perhaps winning 20. Zack is already the first D-back with as many as sixteen wins since Wade Miley in 2012; one more victory, and you can push that bar back to Ian Kennedy’s 21 wins in 2011. The K’s also passed the bar, with Greinke currently on pace for the most since the prime of the Big Unit (who fanned 290 in 2004). He needs 36 to pass Dan Haren’s 223 in 2009: he probably has five starts left in the regular season, depending on how the team plays things heading into any potential wild-card game. Greinke is currently set up to pitch #159, which would be a full week before that, so seems likely.
- Taijuan Walker - Wins 9½ ($1,807.31-$83.00) - PACE 10, OVER
This is probably the one which is most in doubt at this point. Walker did finally end his long winless streak, but only after 10 consecutive games without a W. He did get the win in each of his last two, which pushed the projected total just over the line (without rounding, it’s 9.6 wins!). His current tally of eight, leaves Taijuan needing two more during the last month. Like Greinke, Walker will probably have five more starts, and the way the team has been playing, you’d have to think this is likely: but it’s also by no means certain.
- Fernando Rodney - Saves 19½ ($2,034.88-$1,066.66) - PACE 41, OVER CLOSED
His last two appearances have both been in non-save situations, which is a little unusual, but Coors gonna Coors, and I can’t blame Torey Lovullo for wanting to lock down even a four-run lead. At 34 saves, Rodney is already fourth on the single-season list for the D-backs, with Byung-Hyun Kim’s 2002 (36) within reach. The top two (47 + 45, Jose Valverde and J.J. Putz, on our last two playoff teams) are probably a bit of a stretch. But Rodney will certainly do nicely, as those contract incentives for appearances and games finished continue to rack up.
A lot of lines are now officially closed, but to summarize, we have the following changes in lines since the last update:
- Walker W: now OVER
- Pollock BA: now UNDER
Factoring those two changes in, here are the standings before the final 27 games of the season get under way.
- Makakilo - $1,500.00
- Cumulus Choir - $1,400.00
- GuruB - $1,100.00
- Imstillhungry95 - $900.00
- SenSurround - $820.68
- david.munter - $504.00
- JoelPre - $500.00
- ryeandi - $499.98
- Steven Burt - $492.00
- Arizona CardinalBacks - $333.32
- Hazzard21 - $300.00
- Xerostomia - $100.00
- TucsonTim - $0.00
- Fangdango - -$166.66
- DbacKid - -$300.00
- Michael McDermott - -$499.98
- Craig from Az - -$500.00
- Sean Testerman - -$750.00
- jp100 - -$1,100.00
- AzDbackfanInDc - -$1,500.00
makakilo returns to the top, Walker now being back on pace to reward the over. Meanwhile, previous leader ish95 drops out of the top three, courtesy of Pollock’s recent slump. Cumulus Choir stays in second, but improves by a whole $2, so can afford a large drink to get his three free tacos today (* between 4-6pm, at participating restaurants). No change for GuruB, but he still climbs onto a podium spot, with one month left to go. The two changes overall help move punters closer to the break-even line, with the deficit dropping from $3,337 to $1,667.
Tune in next month for the final accounting.