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Preview #146: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies

San Diego Padres v Arizona Diamondbacks Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Today's Lineups

COLORADO ROCKIES ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Charlie Blackmon - CF David Peralta - LF
DJ LeMahieu - 2B Ketel Marte - SS
Nolan Arenado - 3B Jake Lamb - 3B
Trevor Story - SS Paul Goldschmidt - 1B
Mark Reynolds - 1B J.D. Martinez - RF
Carlos Gonzalez - RF Daniel Descalso - 2B
Ian Desmond - LF A.J. Pollock - CF
Jonathan Lucroy - C Chris Herrmann - C
German Marquez - RHP Patrick Corbin - LHP

Diamondbacks post-season magic number: 12

Diamondbacks home-field magic number: 15

Diamondbacks division anti-magic number: 8

By dropping the first two games of the series, and four of five overall. the D-backs haven’t done too much damage to their postseason chances. Per Fangraphs, they still sit at 99.7%, so are virtually a lock. Which makes sense. They currently sit 612 games clear of the first non-wildcard team (the Cardinals), with 17 games left to play. So, even if the D-backs go just 6-11 the rest of the way, the Cardinals would have to finish 13-5 to force a tie. And the schedule is definitely in our favor. This series is the last one we have against any team with a winning record; the Cardinals still have 10 remaining against the Cubs and Brewers, teams whose post-seasons hopes are very much alive.

There is still the question of home-field advantage. Right now, we are three up on the Rockies. While it would be nice to win both, simply splitting the two remaining games would be adequate. That would keep us three ahead of Colorado, and brings us down to 15 games left. Importantly, a split would also give us the season series - we currently have the edge 9-8 - which would be used to determine home-field if both wild-card teams finish with the same record. In that scenario, if the D-backs then go 6-9 the rest of the way, the Rockies would need to go 10-5 - they finish the season with three games against the Dodgers. Which might or might not be a good thing.

Speaking of which... there’s a case to be made that we might be better off playing Colorado in Coors Field. Admittedly, a lot of the Rockies hitters see their numbers crater away from Denver. But that cuts both ways: Martinez, Goldschmidt and Iannetta all have a season OPS greater than 1.100 at Coors. Overall this year, we have done better there, going 6-3, than at Chase Field, where were are only 3-5. This is reflected in the run differentials too. In Colorado, we have outscored the Rockies by more than twenty (58-37); in Phoenix, the numbers are 28-30. So, perhaps something to keep in mind: losing home field wouldn’t be a death sentence based on 2017 form.