In case you missed it, before the season we continued a long tradition of opening the doors to the SnakePit Casino. There, we gave people $1,500 SnakePit Dollars, and invited them to wager on a series of over/under lines, for D-backs player and team performance this season. We capped each individual bet at $500, so you have to make at least three bets. Today, we have the fourth update on the standings so far: as well as the financial ramifications, it actually offers a good “snapshot” of the overall state of the team.
For each bet below, you’ll first get the line drawn by Bovada.lv. Then, in brackets, the amount wagered over and under by gamblers. Finally, we have the end-of-year pace, based on the first month of the season, and whether that number will be over or under the line, with changes from last time shown in bold. All stats are based on the position through 108 games, which was yesterday afternoon’s thrilling win over the Cubs.
- Diamondbacks team - Wins 77½ ($3,293.35-$2,344.33) - PACE 93, OVER
After three consecutive months with at least 16 wins, the team hit its first speed-bump in July, going 10-14. That reined in our projected win total from the three-digit mark it was at last time. But this still looks to be an easy over, with only 16 more victories needed over the remaining 54 games to cross the line. If the D-backs can return to the form they show from April through June, they have a shot at closing the book on this one by our next update, at the beginning of September.
- Paul Goldschmidt - BA .299 ($2,488.31-$1,016.33) - PACE .320, OVER
- Paul Goldschmidt - HR 30½ ($166.33-$3,192.65) - PACE 37½, OVER
- Paul Goldschmidt - RBI 100½ ($2,376.36-$83.33) - PACE 127½, OVER
- Paul Goldschmidt - Runs 99½ ($1,015.75-$83.33) - PACE 129, OVER
Reports of a Goldy “:slump” were, clearly, greatly exaggerated. Although even before yesterday’s monumental performance, he still had a .941 OPS since we checked in last. That did include only three home-runs and 13 RBI in 26 games. But he matched the HR total and added six more RBI in one afternoon’s work. This leaves needing six home-runs over the rest of the season, along with fourteen runs and sixteen RBI. It would not surprise me if all three of these have been signed, sealed and delivered when we next check in. If opposing teams would stop hitting him, that would be really appreciated!
- A.J. Pollock - HR 14½ ($4,145.10-$166.33) - PACE 7½, UNDER
- A.J. Pollock - BA .290 ($1,224.66-$335.76) - PACE .296, OVER
- A.J. Pollock - Stolen Bases 29½ ($900.66-$1,928.05) - PACE 22½, UNDER
Pollock has at least returned to the Diamondbacks line-up, but would need 10 home-runs over the final two months, a 30-HR season pace which seems unlikely. The batting average line is going to be close, and so are the stolen bases. He currently has 15 SB in 62 games, and needs 15 more with 54 left to play. While he therefore needs to pick up the pace a bit there, the fact it’s still even somewhat possible after he missed 44 games entirely, is still quite impressive.
- David Peralta - BA .290 ($0.00-$4,619.30) - PACE .301, OVER
Peralta has been doing just enough here, with his average finishing every game since June 7 above .300 [it did dip down below it temporarily, during a game in the Cubs series]. However, the later we get in the season, the bigger the sample size, and this makes the line more secure since it will require a correspondingly larger slump to impact the batting average enough. He’d probably need to bat below .270 the rest of the way for this line to drop, and that’s good news for the punters, since 100% of the money here went on the over.
- Jake Lamb - HR's 24½ ($1,383.66-$573.58) - PACE 34½, OVER
- Jake Lamb - RBI 79½ ($2,665.79-$0.00) - PACE 127½, OVER CLOSED
- Yasmany Tomas - HR 24½ ($749.99-$572.44) - PACE 12, UNDER
- Yasmany Tomas - RBI 80½ ($266.66-$1,309.95) - PACE 48, UNDER
We have another line crossed, with Lamb’s 20 RBI giving him 85 for the season, so this book is officially closed with one-third of the season to go. Given this was also one where the fans bet unanimously on the over, the optimism proved well-founded. Home-runs looks all but certain to join it, Jake currently sitting on 23 - be nice if that was finished during the Giants series! The news is not so good for Yasmany “I remember him” Tomas, who is still among the missing. Even if he returned tonight - and that ain’t happening - it would be a tough haul for him to get above the line.
- Zack Greinke - Wins 13½ ($2,099.06-$1,083.33) - PACE 19½, OVER
- Zack Greinke - Strikeouts 179½ ($782.00-$3,111.31) - PACE 235½, OVER
- Zach Greinke - ERA 3.40 ($2,532.99-$985.22) - PACE 3.10, UNDER
One more win is all Zack needs, sitting at 13-4 right now - if the bullpen had been able to strand the runner they inherited yesterday, we could perhaps have been shutting the door on this wager right now. The K’s are still piling up for Greinke, with 41 in 40 innings during this stretch of games, and he’s now a mere 23 strikeouts short. Even though his ERA took a hit after the savage and unprovoked assault by Contreras - it’s the highest it has been since June 20 - as with Peralta, the increased sample-size works in his favor. If Greinke’s ERA is below four over the remaining schedule, he should be good for the under.
- Taijuan Walker - Wins 9½ ($1,807.31-$83.00) - PACE 9, UNDER
The only alteration we have this update comes as a result of Walker’s unfortunate winless streak. His last victory was all the way back in game #72, since when he is 0-2 in six starts. He hasn’t really pitched badly, with an ERA of 3.75 and a K:BB ratio of 32:13 over 36 innings. It has as much been a lack of support, with the Diamondbacks only managing to score an average of three runs per game when Walker starts. He needs four wins, in what will probably be 11 starts between now and season’s end, so it is still very plausible.
- Fernando Rodney - Saves 19½ ($2,034.88-$1,066.66) - PACE 36, OVER CLOSED
Probably a good job Rodney closed the book on this way in our seventieth game, because until the Cubs series on Wednesday and Thursday, saves have been notable by their absence. He went almost four weeks between saves, or indeed, even save opportunities (July 7-August 2). Still, the four saves this period are icing on the cake - though it should have been six, except for his consecutive blown changes on July 4 and 6. Fun fact: over his last five opportunities, he has faced 18 batters, and struck out 11 of them, a K-rate of higher than 60%.
To summarize, we have the following changes in lines since the last update:
- Walker W: now UNDER
Annoying, that late change - if he’s won his last start, it would still be over. Because it means I don’t quite get simply to copy-paste the results from last time. Be right back, updating the spreadsheet...
- Imstillhungry95 - $1,500.00
- Cumulus Choir - $1,398.00
- Makakilo - $1,300.00
- GuruB - $1,100.00
- david.munter - $836.00
- JoelPre - $500.00
- SenSurround - $472.50
- Oz-Dbacks - $300.00
- ryeandi - $166.66
- Steven Burt - $156.00
- Arizona CardinalBacks - $0.00
- DbacKid - -$100.00
- Fangdango - -$166.66
- hventure - -$300.00
- Michael McDermott - -$499.98
- Craig from Az - -$500.00
- Lamar Jimmerson - -$700.00
- jp100 - -$1,100.00
- AzDbackfanInDc - -$1,500.00
ish95 now has the lead all to himself, with makakilo having lost his perfect score as a result of Walker’s winless streak. He drops to third, with Cumulus Choir taking over second, having wagered just the one dollar on Walker’s wins! GuruB and david.munter round out the rest of the top five, in the same positions as last time. There’s no change at the bottom either, with AzDbackfanInDc, Diamondhacks and LiamNeeson all looking likely to be walking home at the end of the night. Overall, the drop of Walker cost bettors about $3,400, and leaves the collective wealth in the red by $3,337.48.