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Preview #107: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs

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Well, at least it can’t go much worse than last night. Can it?

Arizona Diamondbacks v St Louis Cardinals Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

Today's Lineups

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS CHICAGO CUBS
David Peralta - LF Ben Zobrist - 2B
A.J. Pollock - CF Kris Bryant - 3B
Jake Lamb - 3B Anthony Rizzo - 1B
Paul Goldschmidt - 1B Kyle Schwarber - LF
J.D. Martinez - RF Alex Avila - C
Daniel Descalso - 2B Addison Russell - SS
Chris Iannetta - C Jason Heyward - RF
Jack Reinheimer - SS Jon Jay - CF
Zack Godley - RHP Jake Arrieta - RHP

Yesterday was the 15th time the Diamondbacks had conceded 16 runs in a game. So there’s been worse. On nine occasions, incidentally - and on Arizona teams that reached the post-season too. Particularly memorable is the 19-1 thrashing at the hands of the Dodgers on Sept 2, 2002. which ended in Mark Grace’s outing on the mound. Indeed, last year, 40% of playoff teams had worse outings, with the Giants, Red Sox, Rangers and Indians all having games where they conceded 17 or more runs. So, bad though last night certainly was, it’s one game. It reduced our Fangraph playoff odds by just one-half of one percent.

What’s more important is how the team bounces back from that. As a yardstick, let’s look at the previous 14 occasions the team got bombed in this way. How did they perform the next time out?

  • 1998-06-23: ARI 5 @ TEX 16 - ARI 2, TEX 3
  • 2000-06-18: ARI 2 @ COL 19 - ARI 3, SDP 2
  • 2000-08-21: ARI 8, MIL 16 - ARI 3, MIL 4
  • 2002-09-02: ARI 1, LAD 19 - ARI 2, LAD 3
  • 2003-09-23: ARI 9 @ COL 20 - ARI 6 @ COL 3
  • 2004-09-03: ARI 7 @ SFG 18 - ARI 7 @ SFG 9
  • 2005-04-04: ARI 6, CHC 16 - ARI 5, CHC 4
  • 2005-05-08: ARI 2, PIT 16 - ARI 3, WSN 4
  • 2005-05-13: ARI 3 @ COL 18 - ARI 10 @ COL 4
  • 2005-08-19: ARI 3 @ CIN 17 - ARI 6 @ CIN 2
  • 2005-08-24: ARI 4 @ NYM 18 - ARI 1 @ NYM 3
  • 2010-05-08: ARI 3, MIL 17 - ARI 3, MIL 6
  • 2015-10-02: ARI 5, HOU 21 - ARI 2, HOU 6
  • 2016-08-14: ARI 2 @ BOS 16 - ARI 10, NYM 6
  • 2017-08-01: ARI 4 @ CHC 16 - ???

That’s six wins and eight defeats, so within the statistical range of even, and we actually outscored the opposition (63-59) over those post-apocalyptic contests. It’s kinda impressive that there was a spell of almost a decade, between August 2005 and October 2015, where we only conceded more than 15 runs once, especially considering we had five such games in 2005 alone. But if you want an omen, that year gives us the only previous time the Cubs scored sixteen against us (and that was on Opening Day!). We beat them 5-4, Russ Ortiz getting the W over Greg Maddux...