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The above is subject to change, in the event Lance Lynn gets traded, but at this late stage, that feels rather unlikely. Which is a shame, because he will likely be tougher for the D-backs to face than any (literal) replacement-level starter the Cardinals would send up. A win would probably push Arizona’s Fangraph odds back into the 90th percentile; they’re sitting at 89.9% after last night’s victory. How far, will depend on results elsewhere, I guess. The last few days have not been kind to anyone’s chances there outside of the Cubs. Pittsburgh appear especially dead, losing series to SF, LA and SD on their current road-trip. Time to cross “...but the Pirates!” off the list of worries.
Very similar K/9 and BB/9 numbers for the two starters today. The main differences are that Lynn has allowed a lower rate of hits, but has also given up home-runs much quicker. Given the way the D-backs offense has played of late, with virtually all their runs this series coming by way of the round-tripper (I think it’s nine of eleven in the first three games), that could end up decisive both ways. Either we rap out a lot of homers and win, or we don’t get the ball out of the park and lose. Lynn is 0-4 in five games when allowing more than one HR; he’s 6-0 in eight when allowing zero HR.
Of course, that should be no surprise, but it’s a significantly bigger split than, say, Taijuan Walker has shown. However, he has only allowed more than a single homer once this year (a loss). But his record of eight starts when giving up zero long balls is only 3-2. For Walker though, his W-L mark is more dependent on the support he gets from the Arizona offense.:
- When he gets a W, the D-backs average 7.5 runs
- When he gets a ND, the D-backs average 5.8 runs
- When he gets an L, the D-backs average 1.5 runs
Indeed, Taijuan has yet to lose this year when getting more than three runs of support. We’ll see if that holds true again today. Maybe he can hit another homer and help his own cause a bit!