In case you missed it, before the season we continued a long tradition of opening the doors to the SnakePit Casino. There, we gave people $1,500 SnakePit Dollars, and invited them to wager on a series of over/under lines, for D-backs player and team performance this season. We capped each individual bet at $500, so you have to make at least three bets. Today, we have the second update on the standings so far: as well as the financial ramifications, it actually offers a good “snapshot” of the overall state of the team.
For each bet below, you’ll first get the line drawn by Bovada.lv. Then, in brackets, the amount wagered over and under by gamblers. Finally, we have the end-of-year pace, based on the first month of the season, and whether that number will be over or under the line, with changes from last time shown in bold. All stats are based on the position through 81 games, which was the opener against Colorado on Friday night. But with an off-day today, it’s a good chance to get caught up with everything.
- Diamondbacks team - Wins 77½ ($3,293.35-$2,344.33) - PACE 100, OVER
Arizona have managed three consecutive months with at least 16 wins. Not bad, considering the last month with merely a winning record for the D-backs was September 2015. The last 16-win month? June 2012. We managed consecutive months with 19 and 16 in August/September 2011. But to find the last three-peat of them, you have to go back to 1999-2000. Discounting the 2-1 record posted in October 1999, we had a streak of five months with 16, 20, 19 (all in 1999), 16 and 17 (in 2000) wins. This one is looking secure.
- Paul Goldschmidt - BA .299 ($2,488.31-$1,016.33) - PACE .317, OVER
- Paul Goldschmidt - HR 30½ ($166.33-$3,192.65) - PACE 38, OVER
- Paul Goldschmidt - RBI 100½ ($2,376.36-$83.33) - PACE 132, OVER
- Paul Goldschmidt - Runs 99½ ($1,015.75-$83.33) - PACE 138, OVER
Some of these are also looking close to done. Goldschmidt needs just 31 runs and 35 RBI over the second half, plus a dozen home-runs, in order to lock those lines up. Barring (and I’m rubbing a black cat on some wood here) any health-related issues, those appear to be all but certain. Hell, he had 27 runs, 23 RBI and seven home-runs in the month of June alone. Even during his recent “slump” on this home-stand, Paul still has an OPS of .678, and that on a BABIP of .200. He’s still on pace for a franchise record number of runs.
- A.J. Pollock - HR 14½ ($4,145.10-$166.33) - PACE 4, UNDER
- A.J. Pollock - BA .290 ($1,224.66-$335.76) - PACE .299, OVER
- A.J. Pollock - Stolen Bases 29½ ($900.66-$1,928.05) - PACE 22, UNDER
It seems we might get A.J. back, and that’ll certainly be a boost to the team, even if their W-L record in his absence has been perfectly fine. It’s probably going to be too late for him to be able to do much about home-runs, as he needs 13 in the second half for that to cross the line. Stolen-bases are in a better spot, even as the projection has now dropped below the line. He had 11 in only 37 games before the injury, so getting the 19 needed to cash in on the over, is not impossible - with the obvious “assuming he’s fully healthy” caveat.
- David Peralta - BA .290 ($0.00-$4,619.30) - PACE .314, OVER
Peralta has been above the line all bar one day since April 22 - he had an 0-for-5 on May 9, which dropped him to .283, but a multi-hit game two days later got him back on top, and he has been there ever since. In this period, the low-point was .299 on June 6 + 7, but he hit .326 overall to increase his season average by seven points. The Freight Train started the second half on the tracks, and we’ll hope he doesn’t get derailed like the rest of our outfield has been by injuries. And, speaking of which...
- Jake Lamb - HR's 24½ ($1,383.66-$573.58) - PACE 36, OVER
- Jake Lamb - RBI 79½ ($2,665.79-$0.00) - PACE 130, OVER
- Yasmany Tomas - HR 24½ ($749.99-$572.44) - PACE 16, UNDER
- Yasmany Tomas - RBI 80½ ($266.66-$1,309.95) - PACE 64, UNDER
Lamb is even closer than Goldschmidt to finishing off the job. Seven home-runs and 15 RBI will get it done, so the latter in particular will likely be completed by the end of this month. The news isn’t as good for those who took the over on Tomas, since his absence from the roster has now dropped the RBI line back down below the line. However, most bettors there did go for the under, so that change is mostly bad tidings for the house!
- Zack Greinke - Wins 13½ ($2,099.06-$1,083.33) - PACE 18, OVER
- Zack Greinke - Strikeouts 179½ ($782.00-$3,111.31) - PACE 232, OVER
- Zach Greinke - ERA 3.40 ($2,532.99-$985.22) - PACE 3.08, UNDER
With his win over the weekend, although in the second half so excluded above, Greinke has reached double digits, and only needs four wins the rest of the way. His strikeouts slowed a bit last month: he has 32 in June, compared to 44 for May, in the same number of starts. But that’s still looking very good as well. And with a 2.70 ERA, Greinke did enough to get named to the National League All-Star roster, for the first time as a member of the Diamondbacks.
- Taijuan Walker - Wins 9½ ($1,807.31-$83.00) - PACE 12, OVER
A pesky blister cost Walker about four weeks, but he won the first two starts on his return, before getting a pair of no-decisions his last time out. That sends him into the second half on six wins, and like Greinke, four more is all it will take to get the line locked in on the over. Blisters and other health problems permitting, I don’t expect that to be much of a problem, and tend to think both men will see those W books closed before we enter September
- Fernando Rodney - Saves 19½ ($2,034.88-$1,066.66) - PACE 40, OVER CLOSED
This has to be one of the fastest closings with the over of any betting line in the history of the SnakePit casino. Rodney did it by notching his twentieth save in just game #70. The pace has slowed a bit since - over the thirteen games, he has added only one more save, though has also vultured a pair of victories. But it doesn’t matter for betting purposes. Those who had confidence in him, please form an orderly line at the teller window to collect your winnings.
To summarize, we have the following changes in lines since the first update:
- Pollock SB: now UNDER
- Tomas RBI: now UNDER
Both come largely as the result of injuries sapping the players in question’s time on the field. That’s an aspect that often gets forgotten about when wagering, but can play an important part in establishing bet value. With Pollock’s history of fragility, for example, wagers that seem insanely good value are turning out to be a bit of a poisoned pill for some punters. Here are the standings at the half-way point.
- Imstillhungry95 $1,500.00
- Cumulus Choir $1,400.00
- GuruB $1,100.00
- david.munter $670.00
- SenSurround $650.48
- JoelPre $500.00
- ryeandi $333.32
- Steven Burt $324.00
- DbacKid $300.00
- Arizona CardinalBacks $166.66
- Xerostomia $100.00
- Fangdango $0.00
- hventure -$300.00
- Michael McDermott -$333.32
- Craig from Az -$500.00
- jp100 -$1,100.00
- AzDbackfanInDc -$1,500.00
ish95 moves into a tie with makakilo at the top of the standings, both having a perfect score. ish95 benefited from the swing in Pollock stolen-bases, completing his 5-for-5 record, alongside Goldschmidt BA, Pollock BA, Lamb RBI and Greinke Wins. Cumulus Choir sits third, with just a small $50 wager on the Pollock’s SB preventing him from also being perfect. Overall, the swings took the tally across all entrants back into the very slightly positive column, the 35 entrants being up a combined $111.14 to this point.