In case you missed it, before the season we continued a long tradition of opening the doors to the SnakePit Casino. There, we gave people $1,500 SnakePit Dollars, and invited them to wager on a series of over/under lines, for D-backs player and team performance this season. We capped each individual bet at $500, so you have to make at least three bets. Today, we have the second update on the standings so far: as well as the financial ramifications, it actually offers a good “snapshot” of the overall state of the team.
For each bet below, you’ll first get the line drawn by Bovada.lv. Then, in brackets, the amount wagered over and under by gamblers. Finally, we have the end-of-year pace, based on the first month of the season, and whether that number will be over or under the line. NOTE: Participants should check their betting slips, as the SnakePit Casino cannot absolutely guarantee accuracy otherwise. I’ve sanity checked the figures, to make sure they add up to $1,500, but would not bet the SnakePitette’s life I have not shuffled anyone’s bet from over to under!
All stats are based on the position through 54 games, which was Robbie Ray’s shutout against Pittsburgh. It’s just taken a little while to get everything tallied up, and find a suitable slot to post the results - Michael and James have been keeping us occupied with the draft possibilities, for which, we thank them! But here’s an off-day with a bit of room to get caught up...
- Diamondbacks team - Wins 77½ ($3,293.35-$2,344.33) - PACE 96, OVER
Exactly the same pace we were after the first update, the D-backs have followed up an enormously surprising equal, with an even more pleasant May. Sitting 32-22, means the D-backs would need only to go 46-62 to cash in on the over. That’s the equivalent of repeating last season’s 69-win record the rest of the way. Seems almost guaranteed, providing the team can remain relatively healthy for the next four months. But I’ll be happier when we have A.J. Pollock back. To the half-way point, the schedule is in Arizona’s favor, so it’d be nice to get fat on wins against some of those sub-.500 teams.
- Paul Goldschmidt - BA .299 ($2,488.31-$1,016.33) - PACE .307, OVER
- Paul Goldschmidt - HR 30½ ($166.33-$3,192.65) - PACE 33, OVER
- Paul Goldschmidt - RBI 100½ ($2,376.36-$83.33) - PACE 114, OVER
- Paul Goldschmidt - Runs 99½ ($1,015.75-$83.33) - PACE 132, OVER
Paul batted a hair under .300 since the last update, but made up for that with seven home-runs, to push that projection above the line - though that hurt more people than it helped. He also continued to drive in runs, and perhaps most remarkably, is the rate at which he himself is crossing home-plate. The pace of 132 would tie the franchise all-time mark, set during the greater offensive era of 1999, by Jay Bell. Being on pace for 36 stolen-bases doesn’t hurt. Since 1922, only four first-basemen have ever stolen that many in a season.
- A.J. Pollock - HR 14½ ($4,145.10-$166.33) - PACE 6, UNDER
- A.J. Pollock - BA .290 ($1,224.66-$335.76) - PACE .299, OVER
- A.J. Pollock - Stolen Bases 29½ ($900.66-$1,928.05) - PACE 33, OVER
No change here, but SB, which looked an easy over after A.J. swiped eleven bags over the first 28 games, is now on decidedly shakier ground due to Pollock’s injury. He has been out of action for three weeks now, but even before that, seemed to have become more cautious, not stealing a base in his more recent 11 games. Home-runs looks like a bit of a lost cause, with only two so far, but we’ll see what happens when he returns. How confident he feels about his groin may play into how active he is on the base-paths.
- David Peralta - BA .290 ($0.00-$4,619.30) - PACE .307, OVER
Cooled off a bit in May, batting .284 overall. Still enough to keep him above the line at the one-third point. The team does appear to be treating him a bit more as a platoon guy, with Peralta starting only 16 of the 27 games this period. However, that is probably more likely to help the over, since he will (presumably) be getting the platoon advantage. With everyone having gone “under” on this one, it could end up being costly.
- Jake Lamb - HR's 24½ ($1,383.66-$573.58) - PACE 42, OVER
- Jake Lamb - RBI 79½ ($2,665.79-$0.00) - PACE 129, OVER
- Yasmany Tomas - HR 24½ ($749.99-$572.44) - PACE 24, UNDER
- Yasmany Tomas - RBI 80½ ($266.66-$1,309.95) - PACE 96, OVER
Good news for Lamb fans, as he put up nine home-runs and 22 RBI over the second stretch. He would be on pace for only the third 40-homer season in franchise history, after Gonzo’s 2001 and Mark Reynolds in 2009. Seems to be pausing for breath a bit, with no home-runs in Lamb’s last nine games, his longest streak of the season. On the other hand, Tomas has struggled after his torrid start, with three home-runs and a mere 12 RBI. That has dropped his home-run projection below the line, albeit only just.
- Zack Greinke - Wins 13½ ($2,099.06-$1,083.33) - PACE 18, OVER
- Zack Greinke - Strikeouts 179½ ($782.00-$3,111.31) - PACE 252, OVER
- Zach Greinke - ERA 3.40 ($2,532.99-$985.22) - PACE 3.24, UNDER
Greinke’s wins finally caught up with his strikeouts last month, as he picked up a quarter of consecutive victories to move this line above projection. But the most outstanding feature continues to be his staggering rate of K’s. He fanned 44 in only 35.2 innings of work, and is on pace for over 250 K’s. As we mentioned last time, no D-back has even reached 225 since the Big Unit in 2004.
- Taijuan Walker - Wins 9½ ($1,807.31-$83.00) - PACE 12, OVER
Last time, we wrote: “The way Walker has been pitching, 9.5 wins seems almost like a sure lock.” Of course, as we’ve seen with Shelby Miller, health is no respecter of pitching performance. After three wins in the first stretch, he had only one over the second, and hasn’t been seen at all since May 19. Should be back soon though, and if he keeps pitching well, this still looks like a fairly safe bet - health permitting.
- Fernando Rodney - Saves 19½ ($2,034.88-$1,066.66) - PACE 39, OVER
Still here. Still employed. Still notching the saves. To his credit, didn’t allow a run in this stretch, the only one since April a) coming in game #55, and being unearned due to Goldschmidt’s error. At current rate, this one will have its book closed, with the “over” by the All-Star break, and it now seems unlikely he will be removed from the closer’s role without achieving the necessary 20 saves - he currently sits on 14.
To summarize, we have the following three changes in lines since the first update:
- Goldschmidt HR: now OVER
- Tomas HR: now UNDER
- Greinke HR: now OVER
That has had a significantly negative impact, mostly due to almost no-one betting the OVER on Goldy home-runs. The overall balance is now about four thousand dollars in the red, after showing a small profit in the first month. Here are the individual standings. Makakilo extends his lead, thanks to a perfect set of over bets - team wins, Goldschmidt RBI, Greinke wins, Walker wins and Rodney save.
- Makakilo $1,500.00
- GuruB $1,100.00
- Cumulus Choir $900.00
- JoelPre $500.00
Nate Rowan $500.00
- david.munter $338.00
- Fangdango $333.32
- Steven Burt $324.00
- DbacKid $300.00
- SenSurround $141.12
- MrMrrbi $100.00
- Michael McDermott $0.00
Sean Testerman $0.00
- Arizona CardinalBacks -$166.66
- hventure -$300.00
Lamar Jimmerson -$300.00
- preston.salisbury -$500.00
- Keegan Thompson -$900.00
- jp100 -$1,100.00
- AzDbackfanInDc -$1,500.00
Craig from Az -$1,500.00