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Preview, #57: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins

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Patrick Corbin starts, hoping to put a terrible May behind him.

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Today's Lineups

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS MIAMI MARLINS
Reymond Fuentes - CF Dee Gordon - 2B
David Peralta - RF Giancarlo Stanton - RF
Paul Goldschmidt - 1B Christian Yelich - CF
Jake Lamb - 3B Marcell Ozuna - LF
Yasmany Tomas - LF J.T. Realmuto - C
Brandon Drury - 2B Justin Bour - 1B
Chris Owings - SS Christian Colon - 3B
Chris Iannetta - C J.T. Riddle - SS
Patrick Corbin - LHP Jose Urena - RHP

Corbin will be glad to see the start of June, simply because it means it won't be May any more. He made five starts in the month just ended and put up an ERA of 9.00, allowing 26 earned runs in 26 innings of work. He went 2-2, which is a better record than in the first month but in one of those wins, he got 11 runs of support, and the other was Corbin's sole quality start of May. It was a radical chance from April. For comparison, here are his numbers in each of the first two months:

  • April: 2-3, 2.29 ERA, 35.1 IP, 34 H, 13 R, 9 ER, 11 BB, 30 SO
  • May: 2-2, 9.00 ERA, 26.0 IP, 42 H, 26 R, 26 ER, 8 BB, 20 SO

The strikeout to walk ratio hasn't changed that much. So why did Corbin's ERA spike so dramatically? Two numbers not listed above explain it. His BABIP jumped by almost a hundred points, going from .287 to .382. That lead to a sharp increase in hits, opponents' hitting .359 in May, compared to .246 in April. But the real source of the problem was the long-ball. Corbin allowed only three homers in the first month - all solo shots. But last month, throwing effectively a complete game less, he gave up eight homers, culminating in Domingo Santana's grand-slam in Milwaukee. Those 8 PA of the 125 this month, were responsible for driving in more than half (15 of 26) the runs Corbin gave up.

Getting back to allowing fewer home-runs than walks in June would probably be a good idea for Corbin. And, ideally, not by increasing the number of walks...