FanPost

NL All Star Roster Prediction

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

How many Diamondbacks could wind up on the NL All Star roster? While it certainly won't be as many as the six that made the roster in 2002, it should probably be more than any year since 2007, the last time the Diamondbacks had three representatives (Jose Valverde, Brandon Webb, and Orlando Hudson.) Spoiler alert: I have as many as four D-backs on the roster, and none of them are Jake Lamb.

First, how is the All Star roster put together? The fan vote is the most obvious part of the roster, but for the NL, that only accounts for eight of the roster spots. Sixteen players are selected via the player vote, and nine are selected by the manager. The final spot is determined by the (possibly sham) final vote.

Basically, the fans and the players (managers and coaches may also vote on what is generally called the player ballot, but is really a clubhouse ballot) will each select one player per position. In addition, the player ballot selects five starting pitchers and three relief pitchers.

Here is a breakdown of what the roster might look like, stage by stage:

Fan Vote

We already have a decent idea of who the fans will vote in. Cubs (whether they deserve it or not) will receive a major World Series bump, much like the Royals did in recent years. Here is a summary of who is currently leading, and my favorite to eventually win the vote.

C: Buster Posey (Posey says his ankle injury sustained last night wasn't serious, so I anticipate him holding his big lead. If he winds up missing time, Willson Contreras of the Cubs is currently in second place.)

1B: Ryan Zimmermann (I suspect Anthony Rizzo passes Zimmermann before the end of voting.)
2B: Daniel Murphy
3B: Kris Bryant
SS: Zack Cozart (Either Corey Seager or Addison Russell will almost certainly pass Cozart.)
OF: Bryce Harper, Charlie Blackmon, and Jason Heyward. (Harper will certainly keep his spot. Blackmon has a large lead and will likely keep his as well. Heyward is being pushed by Ben Zobrist, with Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton, and Kyle Schwarber not far behind. I'm going to predict an upset by Stanton here, as his bigger name will likely get the spot.

This leaves the fan vote eight as Posey, Rizzo, Murphy, Bryant, Seager, Harper, Blackmon, and Stanton.

Player Vote

The player vote is probably harder to predict, although Goldy has been elected that way in recent years. Much as with the fan vote, the players select their top choices, with the difference being that if the fans and players elect the same player to fill a position, the second-place player on the players ballot is elected. Reputation plays a big role here, of course. Here are my predictions for All Star selections via the player vote.

C: Yadier Molina
1B: Paul Goldschmidt
2B: Josh Harrison (this is the hardest position to handicap. Dee Gordon might win the vote, but I went with Harrison, the current 2B leader in fWAR. Brandon Drury might even have a shot here.)
3B: Nolan Arenado
SS: Zack Cozart
OF: Ozuna, Ender Inciarte, Andrew McCutchen.

SP: Scherzer, Kershaw, Strasburg, Carlos Martinez, Robbie Ray
RP: Kenley Jansen, Greg Holland, Wade Davis

Manager Selections

Obviously, there has to be one representative for each team. So for starters, let's summarize which teams are represented at this point, and by whom.

Arizona: Goldy, Ray
Colorado: Blackmon, Arenado, Holland
LAD: Seager, Kershaw, Jansen
SF: Posey
SD:

Cubs: Rizzo, Bryant, Davis
CIN: Cozart
MIL:
STL: Molina, Martinez
PIT: Harrison, McCutchen

ATL: Inciarte
MIA: Stanton, Ozuna
NYM:
PHI:
WAS: Harper, Scherzer, Strasburg

As can be seen, four teams are left needing a representative. Beginning in San Diego, there is a clear problem. The only Padres currently with more than 1 fWAR are Clayton Richard and Trevor Cahill, neither of whom is going to be selected. Nor is Brandon Maurer. Wil Myers is the biggest name and possible selection, but I'm going to pick Austin Hedges as the third NL catcher. First base is just too deep in the NL to even begin to justify picking Myers ahead of deserving candidates like Joey Votto and Eric Thames.

The Brewers have two pitchers who should definitely get consideration. Chase Anderson and Corey Knebel. For now, I'll give Knebel the pick and save Anderson for the final vote.

Noah Syndergaard is still leading Mets pitchers in fWAR. He made five starts. Michael Conforto leads position players, and the team as a whole, with 2.1 fWAR. He gets the spot.

The Phillies are apparently still a Major League team, so they have to have someone. Cesar Hernandez would be the pick, but his injury takes him out of consideration. Something called an Aaron Altherr leads the team in fWAR, but is an outfielder, so probably doesn't get selected, given that there are already seven outfielders chosen. However, Pat Neshek is having an excellent season, with a 0.72 ERA over 27 games. He is the selection here.

Managerial Selections

The roster breakdown at this point is as follows:

C: Posey, Molina, Hedges
1B: Rizzo, Goldschmidt
2B: Murphy, Harrison
3B: Bryant, Arenado
SS: Seager, Cozart
OF: Harper, Blackmon, Stanton, Ozuna, Inciarte, McCutchen, Conforto
SP: Scherzer, Kershaw, Strasburg, Martinez, Ray
RP: Jansen, Holland, Davis, Knebel, Neshek

The manager now gets to make five more selections, making sure that there are enough players at key positions. Going off of last year's roster, there should be one more first baseman, one more third baseman, 1 more position player of any position, and two more pitchers. Last year, the final vote was for a position player. This year, I'm making it be for a starting pitcher and getting an extra position player up the middle. Using the final vote for a pitcher also means that these players will be replacements for pitchers who throw the Sunday before the game.

At this point, there are two position players in the top-ten by fWAR not on the roster: Ryan Zimmermann and Joey Votto. Zimmermann is an obvious choice, given his key role on a first place team. Votto may wind up snubbed. The top third baseman (by fWAR) not on the team so far is Anthony Rendon, so he likely gets the 3B spot.

For the final position player, utility is a big concern. This needs to be someone who can play multiple positions if needed. Of course, it also needs to be someone having a good season. Chris Owings checks all of those boxes, although there are powerful arguments to be made for Brandon Drury, Eugenio Suarez, and others. There's a possibility that Ben Zobrist would get the spot, given that Joe Maddon is making the selections, but Owings is having a better season and can play shortstop.

The two pitchers should be a reliever and a starter. With only two LHP on the roster so far (and one of those a candidate to start the game) at least one needs to be left handed. There are three LH relievers that would be considered: Jake McGee, Felipe Rivero of the Pirates, and Andrew Chafin. Rivero has the best numbers, but McGee gets the spot if the Rockies are in first place. If the Diamondbacks are in first place, Chafin may get the spot. To further add to the balance, and to put another Cub in the roster (given that Joe Maddon is the manager, after all) Jon Lester is selected.

Roster Before Final Vote

C: Posey, Molina, Hedges
1B: Rizzo, Goldschmidt, Zimmermann
2B: Murphy, Harrison
3B: Bryant, Arenado, Rendon
SS: Seager, Cozart, Owings
OF: Harper, Blackmon, Stanton, Ozuna, Inciarte, McCutchen, Conforto
RHP: Scherzer, Strasburg, Martinez, Neshek, Knebel, Jansen, Holland, Davis
LHP: Kershaw, Ray, McGee, Lester

Final Vote Candidates

The final vote candidates are all starting pitchers. The aforementioned Chase Anderson, Zack Greinke, Jeff Samardzija, Jacob deGrom, and the surprising Antonio Senzatela.

First in line to replace injured players

C: Yasmani Grandal
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Dee Gordon
3B: Jake Lamb
SS: Trea Turner
OF: Eric Thames, Scott Schebler, Christian Yelich

The final vote candidates would be injury/rest replacements for pitchers.

Conclusion

This exercise shows how difficult it is to put together a roster that doesn't snub anyone, is balanced, and represents each team. It would be made much harder by Addison Russell winning the vote at SS, or one of the Cubs outfielders winning the vote there. As with any All Star roster, there are some big snubs. Joey Votto is the biggest, with he and Reds teammate Eugenio Suarez the only position players above 2 fWAR not on the roster. If flexibility is not a concern, Owings is left off for Votto. Eric Thames and Jake Lamb could also feel aggrieved at their not being selected. If the final vote were for a position player, Votto, Lamb, and Thames would be three of the players on the ballot. It's difficult, however, to find two other deserving position players that are on different teams; Jordy Mercer and Christian Yelich would likely wind up being the others.

This also shows how difficult it will be for Jake Lamb to get on the roster. As things stand right now, it would take at least one injury, possibly two, depending on what level of roster balance Joe Maddon wants.