2017 MLB Draft Scenario: Wright or Haseley?

This is what I consider the disaster case for the Diamondbacks in the draft. Hunter Greene ultimately does not fall to the San Diego Padres and the top high school players go at 2, 3, 4, and 5.

Previous Draft Scenarios

• Beck falls to 7th overall
• Royce Lewis and Kyle Wright fall to 7th overall

Draft Scenario

1. Twins: Brendan McKay, 1B/LHP, Louisville
2. Reds: Hunter Greene, RHP, Notre Dame HS (CA)
3. Padres: Royce Lewis, SS, JSerra HS (CA)
4. Rays: Austin Beck, OF, North Davidson HS (NC)
5. Braves: Mackenzie Gore, LHP, Whiteville HS (NC)
6. Athletics: JB Bukauskas, RHP, North Carolina

In this scenario, we see Hunter Greene doesn’t drop to the Padres, which unlike the last scenario where they did an under slot deal, they elect to draft Royce Lewis 3rd overall. The Rays and Braves dry up the well of high school talent and the Athletics end up taking the last sure bet with All-Star upside in the Top 10. If you’re the Diamondbacks, this is a disaster scenario, but they could either go for best bat available in the draft with Adam Haseley, take the highest upside pitcher in Kyle Wright, or go for an under slot pick.

Best Position Player Available: Adam Haseley, OF, Virginia

If it comes down to position player vs. pitcher, I will take either the surer bet or the position player. In this case, Haseley is a surer bet and a position player. Haseley has seen a dramatic improvement each year at Virginia, with his extra base hit power developing nicely in a breakout junior year. Haseley has already cemented himself as the top college bat in my opinion. Haseley’s tools all rate in the 50-60 range, so the limited upside could convince the Diamondbacks that doing an under slot deal (~$4M) and use the savings at 44 and 68.

Best Pitcher Available: Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt

Kyle Wright can look the part of a budding ace, but he didn’t have the big junior season that many hoped, which worries me a bit. Wright features 4 pitches, but for a Top 10 guy, he only has 1 plus pitch (mid 90s fastball) and 2 pitches (fastball, curveball) that don’t require major tinkering once he goes pro. The lack of a strong secondary pitch in his repertoire and the less than ideal junior season at Vanderbilt is very concerning and one I’d have to give Wright a hard pass on. If the Diamondbacks are taking a pitcher, I’d like a surer bet and if they’re trading in upside, then it will be an under slot pick.

Under Slot: David Peterson, LHP, Oregon

A strong junior season has put Peterson in the first round conversation. I did have the opportunity to watch this guy pitch in person. Hi Corbett Field doesn’t have radar guns so I don’t know how hard he was throwing, but he made easy work out of a normally difficult Arizona lineup. He had a few bumps in the game, most of them inflicted by bad defense. Peterson doesn’t have a ton of upside, but is a polished starter whose pitched in a very strong conference in the Pac-12 with excellent command. Peterson makes sense if they really wanted to make a well under slot pick (~$3M).

Best College Bat Available: Adam Haseley, OF, Virginia

The case for picking Haseley here already made above under best position player available.

Best HS Player Available: DL Hall, LHP, Valdosta HS (GA)

If by some reason, the Diamondbacks don’t like the group of college players available at 7, they could always go the high school route with DL Hall. Despite being a bit shorter at 6’1”, Hall has a good enough fastball and a really devastating curveball reminiscent of what Archie Bradley throws. Hall doesn’t have a lot of projection due to his shorter frame, but has a solid feel for 3 pitches. I don’t think Hall is any more risky than Kyle Wright, even though Wright pitched in the SEC for 3 years. Like with Haseley, Hall is a guy the Dbacks should look at for about $3.5-4M to sign.

Conclusion

I consider this the absolute worst-case, froompiece level scenario for how the MLB Draft goes. In the Diamondbacks case, you don’t get All-Star level talent without significant risks at this point, so it’s better to go under slot and play for upside at 44 and/or 68. In my opinion, Kyle Wright’s flags are too scary for me to consider picking even with Ace-like upside. So my choice is the best position player in Adam Haseley. Haseley doesn’t have perennial All-Star upside, but has an advanced approach at the plate and he should develop quicker once he becomes a full-time position player. With average or better tools across the board, Haseley is the type of player who could develop potentially into an AJ Pollock type player who plays above his tools.