While Robbie Ray is in the midst of a breakout season, there is one big issue that seems to be plaguing the 25-year-old budding ace. That issue is the lack of consistent success in his home ballpark since the Diamondbacks acquired him after the 2014 season. Chase Field is a noted hitter’s park, but pitchers with similar skill sets as him have succeeded in the past there.
Early on the 2017 season, Ray has some ugly home and road splits. At home, he gets hit hard and on the road he is virtually unhittable. It could very well be a small sample size, but I checked his career home/road splits and we see the same issue. These numbers do not include Ray’s complete game shutout of the Pittsburgh Pirates last night.
Robbie Ray Home and Road Splits through May 30, 2017
| Split | Starts | TBF | K | BB | wOBA | K-BB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | BABIP | Hard Hit Rate | WHIP | HR/FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split | Starts | TBF | K | BB | wOBA | K-BB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | BABIP | Hard Hit Rate | WHIP | HR/FB |
| 2015 Road | 12 | 295 | 62 | 26 | 0.286 | 12.20% | 2.49 | 3.42 | 4.11 | 0.273 | 31.7% | 1.16 | 5.8% |
| 2015 Home | 11 | 250 | 57 | 23 | 0.355 | 13.60% | 4.88 | 3.66 | 3.92 | 0.358 | 38.9% | 1.55 | 9.3% |
| 2016 Road | 17 | 404 | 121 | 41 | 0.315 | 19.80% | 4.50 | 3.76 | 3.38 | 0.323 | 34.7% | 1.38 | 16.0% |
| 2016 Home | 15 | 373 | 97 | 30 | 0.351 | 17.96% | 5.36 | 3.57 | 3.53 | 0.381 | 38.4% | 1.57 | 14.9% |
| 2017 Road | 5 | 128 | 43 | 13 | 0.198 | 23.44% | 0.81 | 2.10 | 3.35 | 0.200 | 40.8% | 0.84 | 3.1% |
| 2017 Home | 5 | 120 | 31 | 16 | 0.385 | 12.50% | 6.75 | 5.54 | 4.28 | 0.333 | 48.6% | 1.65 | 23.1% |
| Career Road | 34 | 827 | 226 | 80 | 0.286 | 17.65% | 3.14 | 3.35 | 3.65 | 0.285 | 34.4% | 1.21 | 9.9% |
| Career Home | 31 | 743 | 185 | 69 | 0.358 | 15.61% | 5.42 | 4.02 | 3.78 | 0.366 | 40.1% | 1.58 | 14.3% |
In his tenure with the Diamondbacks, Ray has been a significantly better pitcher away from Chase Field than in it. In fact, the biggest and most unusual discrepancy comes on balls in play. On the road, Ray has yielded a career .285 BABIP and at Chase Field the number jumps to .366. That’s a result of hitters getting better contact as Ray’s hard hit rate also jumps 6% in these splits from 34% to 40%. I said walks were the key impediment, although Ray’s strikeout and walk rates for his career are pretty close. Ray just needs to figure out how to get weaker contact when the ball is in play at home and that should help fix things.
I’m very optimistic Ray can make the fix at home. He’s pitched extremely well on the road this year, so it’s not a question of if he can pitch well. I do expect him to be a slightly better pitcher on the road than at home given that Chase Field is a hitter-friendly environment. If Ray can figure out a way to fool hitters and get them off of his fastball at Chase Field, the numbers should improve almost overnight. I have to wonder if the issue is related to why the organization seems to be willing to install a humidor at Chase Field. Once Ray gets more comfortable and has success in his home ballpark on a more regular basis, the sky is the limit.