|ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS||SAN DIEGO PADRES|
|Chris Owings - SS||Manuel Margot - CF|
|David Peralta - RF||Matt Szczur - LF|
|Paul Goldschmidt - 1B||Wil Myers - 1B|
|Jake Lamb - 3B||Yangervis Solarte - 2B|
|Yasmany Tomas - LF||Hunter Renfroe - RF|
|Brandon Drury - 2B||Austin Hedges - C|
|Chris Herrmann - C||Cory Spangenberg - 3B|
|Reymond Fuentes - CF||Erick Aybar - SS|
|Robbie Ray - LHP||Luis Perdomo - RHP|
There's always the feeling, when a team pours it on in a blow-out victory, that they should "Save some runs for tomorrow." We saw evidence for that the last time the D-backs played in San Diego. They won the opening contest 11-2, only to manage one run over the next two games, losing the series despite outscoring the Padres by a 12-7 margin. The team has had an impressive nine "blowout" (margin of victory = five runs or better) wins this season. What has happened the game following the previous eight such contests?
Well, the jury is pretty much out: four of those blowout wins were followed with another win, and four with a loss. There is weak evidence the offense does seem to sit back a little, with Arizona scoring a total of 33 runs in those eight games, for an average of 4.1. That's lower than the overall season average, of 5.0 runs per game. But the pitching steps it up somewhat too, conceding 30 runs (3.8 per game), which is also below the average (4.0), though by a smaller amount. Small sample size applies to all these though: you'd need a much bigger sample to see whether this is any kind of genuine trend.
But on that basis, I'd be somewhat inclined to take the under on runs at Petco tonight. Not least because both pitchers have had recent success against their opponents. We didn't see Perdomo in either of the earlier series against San Diego, but he's 3-for-3 in quality starts against Arizona, all coming in 2016, with an ERA of 2.25 and a K:BB of 12:0 over 20 innings. Meanwhile, last time Ray faced the Padres was also last year, in August, and he tossed seven innings of one-hit ball, and becoming the first Arizona pitcher to strike out 13 in a game, since Randy Johnson in 2008. So, yeah: I'm not expecting this to be a double-digit victory again!