In case you missed it, before the season we continued a long tradition of opening the doors to the SnakePit Casino. There, we gave people $1,500 SnakePit Dollars, and invited them to wager on a series of over/under lines, for D-backs player and team performance this season. We capped each individual bet at $500, so you had to make at least three bets. Now, it’s time for the end of the season reckoning: as well as the financial ramifications, it actually offers a good “snapshot” of the overall state of the team.
For each bet below, you’ll first get the line drawn by Bovada.lv. Then, in brackets, the amount wagered over and under by gamblers. Finally, we have the end-of-year figure, and whether that number will be over or under the line, with changes from last time shown in bold.
- Diamondbacks team - Wins 77½ ($3,293.35-$2,344.33) - 93, OVER
151⁄2 games better than the expected figure? We’ll take that. In the time we’ve been doing this exercise, we’ve certainly not see such a comprehensive over on the projected figure. If we’d been running it in 2011, that would probably have been more, with the actual win tally being 94, and pre-season projections ranging between 70 and 76 wins. But after a series of seasons where it seems the team has consistently played below expectations, it was a very pleasant surprise to have them over-achieve, and do so by a significant margin. For once, the fan optimism shown here (58% betting the over on this line) proved fully justified.
- Paul Goldschmidt - BA .299 ($2,488.31-$1,016.33) - .297, UNDER
- Paul Goldschmidt - HR 30½ ($166.33-$3,192.65) - 36, OVER
- Paul Goldschmidt - RBI 100½ ($2,376.36-$83.33) - 120, OVER
- Paul Goldschmidt - Runs 99½ ($1,015.75-$83.33) - 117, OVER
The September struggles of Goldschmidt cost him - and a significant number of bettors - the chance at a clean sweep of over in these four categories. Paul finished August hitting .319, and this looked like almost a sure thing. But Goldschmidt managed an average of only .171. Even on Sep 25, this still seemed likely, as his season average was .306. Instead, he didn’t get a hit after the D-backs clinched the division, going 0-for-16 in the final week. Just one more knock in those games - or, indeed, at any point in the season, would have turned this under to an over, albeit at the fourth decimal place of his average.
- A.J. Pollock - HR 14½ ($4,145.10-$166.33) - 14, UNDER
- A.J. Pollock - BA .290 ($1,224.66-$335.76) - .266, UNDER
- A.J. Pollock - Stolen Bases 29½ ($900.66-$1,928.05) - 20, UNDER
While his health was better this season, Pollock still only appeared in 112 games, which makes the home-run line being so close - not fully decided until his final at-bat of the year - something of an achievement. Pro-rated to a full season, HR would have easily cleared the over, as most expected, and SB possibly might have ended up there as well. A.J. had five home-runs in the final 17 games of the season, but overall, this year would still have to be classed as disappointing. With a likely arbitration bump due from his 2017 salary of $6.75 million next year, the team will have to make some decisions: but do they have any credible alternatives to play CF?
- David Peralta - BA .290 ($0.00-$4,619.30) - .293, OVER
Like Goldschmidt, Peralta struggled over the final month, batting only .253 from the beginning of September on. However, he did just enough to keep his line up there. The Freight Train entered the final game of the season sitting at .291, like Goldschmidt, not having had a hit since we clinched the wild-card. An 0-for-4 would have pulled this line to the under. But Peralta got a pair of doubles in that last contest, to ensure the house scored big here, with no-one at all believing he would make the over. Well done, David for proving the doubters wrong!
- Jake Lamb - HR's 24½ ($1,383.66-$573.58) - 30, OVER
- Jake Lamb - RBI 79½ ($2,665.79-$0.00) - 105, OVER
- Yasmany Tomas - HR 24½ ($749.99-$572.44) - PACE 8, UNDER
- Yasmany Tomas - RBI 80½ ($266.66-$1,309.95) - PACE 32, UNDER
Nothing significant to add to any of these lines, which were all closed the last time we checked in. Lamb’s first-half allowed him to cruise to an easy over in both his categories, despite a very significant drop-off in production after the break.
First half: .279/.376/.546, 20 HR, 67 RBI
Second half: .204/.332/.403, 10 HR, 38 RBI
Figuring out why that has happened for the second season in row, and addressing teh cause, should be one of the main things facing the D-backs this winter. Tomas’s year was ended on June 2. He is apparently appearing in Instructional League games, so we’ll see what spring may bring.
- Zack Greinke - Wins 13½ ($2,099.06-$1,083.33) - 17, OVER
- Zack Greinke - Strikeouts 179½ ($782.00-$3,111.31) - PACE 215, OVER
- Zach Greinke - ERA 3.40 ($2,532.99-$985.22) - PACE 3.20, UNDER
Greinke only picked up one W over his final five starts, although both that and the strikeouts line were already a lock. His ERA was 3.90, bloated significantly by the terrible outing he had against the Marins. However, the rest of his appearances were decent enough that he came in easily under the ERA tally, and delivered a season that was much more in keeping overall with the contract he signed to play in Arizona. However, getting a W tomorrow would certainly be worth a couple of million dollars more!
- Taijuan Walker - Wins 9½ ($1,807.31-$83.00) - PACE 9, UNDER
It was THIS CLOSE to being over. In his final start of the year, Walker needed a W to get over the line. When he threw his last pitch, to end the bottom of the fifth, the score was 1-1 in Kansas City; however, a two-run jack from A.J. Pollock in the top of the sixth did make Taijuan the pitcher of record at that point. Then Archie Bradley came in, and allowed three runs in the bottom of the inning, to whisk that win away from Walker, and leave him stranded on nine. I think Archie should be buying steak dinners for all those affected by his blown lead!
- Fernando Rodney - Saves 19½ ($2,034.88-$1,066.66) - PACE 39, OVER
This one was closed before the All-Star break, so no drama here at all. Rodney finished the season with exactly twice the projected number of saves for the 2017 Diamondbacks. He ranks third on the franchise single-season record list, behind Jose Valverde (47 in 2007) and J.J. Putz (45 in 2011). He’ll be in line for a nice pay-day this winter as a result. I’m not sure it will be from the Diamondbacks, and I’m not convinced it should be from the Diamondbacks either. Another one of those interesting decisions the front-office will have to make this winter!
A lot of lines are now officially closed, but to summarize, we have the following changes in lines since the last update:
- Goldschmidt BA: now UNDER
- Walker W: now UNDER
Factoring those two changes in, made a BIG difference to the standings, with the wagering being heavy on the over, both for Goldschmidt’s average and Walker’s wins. The net result was a swing towards the house of almost $6,400 in the final month. Looks like I will be able to get those gold toilet seats for SnakePit One after all... Here are the final rankings.
- Makakilo $1,300.00
- david.munter $836.00
- Cumulus Choir $798.00
- GuruB $700.00
- SenSurround $534.06
- JoelPre $500.00
- Imstillhungry95 $300.00
- ryeandi $166.66
- Steven Burt $156.00
- Arizona CardinalBacks $0.00
- Hazzard21 -$100.00
- Keegan Thompson -$300.00
- Lamar Jimmerson -$400.00
- Fangdango -$499.98
Michael McDermott -$499.98
- Craig from Az -$500.00
Nate Rowan -$500.00
- jp100 -$700.00
- Sean Testerman -$750.00
- hventure -$900.00
- DbacKid -$1,100.00
- AzDbackfanInDc -$1,500.00
makakilo holds on to the top spot, but loses his clean sweep of bets, due to wagering $100 on Walker’s wins. No-one managed to record a 100% successful slate this season. david.munter moves up into second, benefiting from both the two late changes in line. Cumulus Choir drops to third. But overall, the success of the Diamondbacks did not translate into success at the sports book, with an overall deficit on the year’s wagers of $8,059.24.
Thank you for coming. Please remember to hand your shirts in on the way out of the building, and we’ll see you again next spring training for another
shake-down set of friendly wagers. :)