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Place your bets on the 2016 Arizona Diamondbacks: Almost there

Here’s the penultimate update before it’s time to cash in all the chips...

Las Vegas Strip Exteriors Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Leading up to Opening Day, anyone who wanted to was awarded fifteen hundred SnakePit dollars and invited to wager them on a series of over-under lines about the Diamondbacks' season. 31 people entered the doors of our theoretical casino, betting on anything from team wins to Brad Ziegler saves. Since then, we’ve been slicing the season up into equal portions, one-sixths or 27 games, and Saturday night’s victory over the Rockies marked the completion of #5. So it’s time for an update on the lines so far: all stats are through the end of Saturday. For each, I've given the original line, the amounts wagered on each side of that line, the projected tally based purely on the number through 108 games, and whether that projected figure would be over or under the line. That's then used to figure out the standings.

Team wins: 82.5 (8850-1059) - 68, UNDER

Technically, this is still in play. However, the emphasis there is very much on the word “technically,” since the Diamondbacks would need to go 26-1 the rest of the way, to reach 83 wins and cross the line. Anyone fancy a small wager on that happening? Thought not. That said, the team actually had their best record over the last section. going 14-13, compared to these marks over the first four segments: 12-15, 11-16, 13-14, 7-20. As you can see, it was pretty much July that destroyed the season, the team playing only somewhat below .500 elsewhere.

Goldschmidt BA: .300 (6260-350) - .3002, OVER
Goldschmidt: HR: 32.5 (531-100) - 24, UNDER
Goldschmidt RBI: 109.5 (1650-2504) - 96, UNDER

We have movement! Even if it proved necessary to go to the fourth decimal place to decide it, Goldschmidt is batting over .300 for the first of these updates this year. He peaked at a season high of .305 on August 26, though has gone 3-for-15 on this road-trip, to settle back almost exactly on the line. However, it does seem to have been at the expense of his power and driving in runs: he has only hit three home-runs and 17 RBI since July 24, a span covering 36 games and 134 at-bats. Save them all for next year, Goldy - that seems like a good idea at this point in a disappointing season for the Diamondbacks.

Pollock BA: .295 (50-830) - .321, OVER

A.J. made a very welcome return to the line-up, and it didn’t take him long - two hitless games - to get back into the swing of things. After going 0-for-8 there, he has now hit in five straight, including three multi-hit contests, and is 9-for-20 over that time. I also note he has been very enthusiastic on the base-paths, already stealing four bases without being caught. It feels almost as if he has something to prove; as if there were much doubt about how much the team missed him this season. I’d have been happy simply for him to be running around the outfield, with all limbs functioning. This early production, although in a small sample size, augurs well for Pollock into 2017.

Peralta BA: .290 (600-969) - .251, UNDER - BOOK CLOSED

He’s back! No, he’s gone again! In the last update, I wrote “Hopefully, this return from the DL will last a bit longer than his previous one.” It was, sadly, not to be: he only appeared once after that, and at a mere seven games, it was one fewer appearance before the Freight Train was once again taken out of service for maintenance. And this time, he’s up on blocks for the rest of the year, having undergone season-ending wrist surgery on August 11. He has been having issues with it since the end of last year, and may have aggravated things by banging into the wall while making a catch in early August. Hopefully, this will address it, and he will be 100% again for 2017.

Greinke Wins: 15 (5850-289) - 14, UNDER
Greinke ERA: 2.90 (1352-1600) - 4.17, OVER
Greinke Strikeouts: 199.5 (850-860) - 137, UNDER

Greinke came back from the DL since I last wrote, but the results since have been a bit underwhelming. He has a winning record at 2-1, but the ERA is a hefty 6.41, mostly due to arguably the worst start of his career on August 14, when the Red Sox took him behind the wood-shed. Three of the other four have been quality starts, though one was the bare minimum. With six starts likely remaining, he needs three W to make this a push, and four to get over the line. Tomorrow’s outing, marking Zack’s return to Dodger Stadium promises to be a particularly interesting one. The ERA and K lines, however, are both pretty much decided at this point.

Miller Wins: 11.5 (7488-0) - 2, UNDER - BOOK CLOSED

Speaking of decided, I’m officially calling this one. Mark the time of death on Shelby Miller’s season at 9:48 am, on September 4th. Though, let’s be honest: it had been pretty close to stillborn. He did come back from the minor-leagues, and didn’t pitch badly on his return in San Francisco, though still got tagged with the loss, largely due to a lack of run support. But even if he is now 8-27 since the beginning of 2015, Miller’s actual record doesn’t matter any more. This year is a write-off, including for contract purposes. The remaining starts will matter, only as a test to see whether he’ll be able to help the Diamondbacks next season.

Ziegler Saves: 29.5 (800-3659) - 25, UNDER

I miss Brad Ziegler. Nothing against Daniel Hudson, but I hope we re-sign Z for next season, because he has been, and continues to be, hard as nails. He has a 1.89 ERA over 20 appearances for Boston, although that includes only one save since I last wrote, closing duties having been returned to Craig Kimbrel. Save for further health issues for Kimbrel, that’s going to remain the way the rest of the season, and it looks highly doubtful that Ziegler will pick up the nine saves needed to turn this bet into a winner for the over brigade.

Standings

All told, the most action we’ve seen all season. Goldschmidt BA went from under to over, Pollock’s BA entered play and is strongly over, Greinke W dropped from push to under, and Ziegler Saves slid below the line as well. Goddamit, that means I’ve got a bunch of updates to do on the spreadsheet... Be right back...

Okay, the big winner this period is shoewizard, who cashes in on the Ziegler saves and moves into a tie for the lead with Diamondhacks. But the loser is TucsonTim, who finds himself now sitting on the wrong side of Greinke W’s and Goldschmidt BA, and plummets into a tie for last place. However, all told, this was a good period for the gamblers, and though the collective line is still significantly below break-even, at -$12,297, that’s about ten grand better than it was. Here are the full standings...

A B
1
Name Standing
2
shoewizard $1,500.00
3
repre $900.00
4
SenSurround $683.69
5
Steven Burt $600.00
6
Diamondhacks $500.00
7
JoeCB1991 $500.00
8
Zavada's Moustache
$500.00
9
Sprankton $500.00
10
preston.salisbury
$300.00
11
John Baragona -$500.00
12
BenSharp -$500.00
13
aj90 -$500.00
14
AzRattler -$500.00
15
pete25 -$500.00
16
MrMrrbi -$500.00
17
Lozenge -$500.00
18
ScrubDaCubs -$500.00
19
ryeandi -$700.00
20
LilolSnake -$700.00
21
imstillhungry95 -$700.00
22
Xipooo -$850.00
23
Hazzard21 -$900.00
24
Basebal144 -$900.00
25
mitze -$900.00
26
GuruB -$1,100.00
27
TucsonTim -$1,500.00
28
AzDbackfanInDc
-$1,500.00
29
Makakilo -$1,500.00
30
Xerostomia -$1,500.00
31
noblevillain -$1,500.00
32
Fangdango -$1,500.00
33
TOTAL -$13,716.31