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Place Your Bets on the 2016 Diamondbacks: One-third left

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The Vodafone Derby - Ladies Day Photo by Ben Stansall/Getty Images

Leading up to Opening Day, anyone who wanted to was awarded fifteen hundred SnakePit dollars and invited to wager them on a series of over-under lines about the Diamondbacks' season. 31 people entered the doors of our theoretical casino, betting on anything from team wins to Brad Ziegler saves. The two-thirds mark of the season was reached with the completion of the Nationals’ series last week, so it's time for an update on the lines so far. For each, I've given the original line, the amounts wagered on each side of that line, the projected tally based purely on the number through 108 games, and whether that projected figure would be over or under the line. That's then used to figure out the standings.

Team wins: 82.5 (8850-1059) - 64.5, UNDER

The book on this one could conceivably be closed by next update. Arizona needs 40 wins, so anything worse than 13-14 over the upcoming month will result in this one getting a line drawn through it. And a warm smile of satisfaction from the house, considering almost 90% of people bet on the over here. How long ago such confidence seems, as we’ve seen in the evaporating confidence polls. Right now, I’m not sure anyone would make a significant wager against the team finishing with 100 losses, particularly given their play over the last month.

Goldschmidt BA: .300 (6260-350) - .296, UNDER
Goldschmidt: HR: 32.5 (531-100) - 25.5, UNDER
Goldschmidt RBI: 109.5 (1650-2504) - 103.5, UNDER

There or thereabout for Goldschmidt, who hit .288 over the last 27 games, to finish the period a mere four points below the line, having entered it two under. As in June, he did make a foray into above, peaking at .303 on July 29. This one looks likely to go to the wire. Home-runs is looking less likely, with Paul having only three bombs since June 18. He is still being fairly productive, driving in 16 runs in this spell, though even that is a couple below the necessary pace. Could get back on track with one of his strong weeks though,

Pollock BA: .295 (50-830) - .000, UNDER

Pollock has now officially begun his rehab assignment, which started with an appearance in the AZL on Friday. He could be in the majors this month, which does increase the chances of this being decided by a semi-meaningful number of at-bats. Or, at least, the BABIP in a semi-meaningful number of at-bats. But it’s going to be a sprint rather than a marathon, and you have to wonder how dialed-in Pollock will immediately be to face major-league pitching after so long on the DL. But, beyond the betting lines, I’ve no problem with him using meaningless games at the end of a lost season, to get back into the swing of things.

Peralta BA: .290 (600-969) - .253, UNDER

He’s back! But hopefully, this return from the DL will last a bit longer than his previous one, which saw the Freight Train make only eight appearances before being shunted back to the engineering yards. So far, however, it hasn’t been awesome. Peralta went 4-for-19 in his first six contests to close out this section, after going 6-for-24 in his previous return. His 2016 BABIP has dropped by 50 points from last season, and that appears largely responsible for the lower batting average. Both David’s line-drive and home-run rates are back to major-league average, so one wonders if this might be the “new normal” for him going forward? We’ll know more once things normalize further.

Greinke Wins: 15 (5850-289) - 15, PUSH
Greinke ERA: 2.90 (1352-1600) - 3.62, OVER
Greinke Strikeouts: 199.5 (850-860) - 136.5, UNDER

The only change in this update is Greinke’s W tally, which is now sitting exactly on the projected line. As a result, all moneys wagered on this bet are simply disregarded for the purposes of the standings. However, he is scheduled to return on Tuesday, which should give him, health permitting, 11 starts left. He needs six wins to make the over, which is certainly possible. The ERA and strikeouts are looking pretty tough: he’d need to fan virtually 10 hitters a game to make the latter, and he has precisely one start with more than eight K’s in his first 17.

Miller Wins: 11.5 (7488-0) - 3, UNDER

No, to answer the obvious question: minor-league wins do not count toward this line. This one is looking like a unanimous victory for the house, which is amazing. Not one of the more than 30 participants chose to wager on the possibility of Shelby Miller winning 11 or fewer games this season. Two-thirds of the way into things, he currently has two, and even after his (semi-)complete game shutout this week, there’s still no firm decision as to when he might return to the majors. It seems entirely conceivable that he may end up falling short even to last year’s tally of six wins by the end of the season. So much optimism. So completely mis-placed.

Ziegler Saves: 29.5 (800-3659) - 30, OVER

Brad picked up two saves since his arrival in Boston, keeping him on target to reach 30 by the end of the year. The bad news - for the house, at least - is that Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel has returned. Although Ziegler still picked up a save on Thursday night, it seems almost inevitable that Kimbrel will return to the closer’s role full-time before very long. Ziegler will then become the set-up man, and the chances of him getting the remaining necessary to reach the line, seem slim unless there are further problems with Kimbrel’s health. Still might end up with more saves for Boston than anyone on the Diamondbacks gets over the remaining 54 games....

Standings

Name Standing
1 Diamondhacks $1,500.00
2 shoewizard $500.00

Steven Burt $500.00
4 SenSurround $35.23
5 repre $0.00
6
preston.salisbury
-$300.00
JoeCB1991 -$300.00
8 TucsonTim -$500.00

Zavada's Moustache
-$500.00

Sprankton -$500.00

John Baragona -$500.00
12
AzDbackfanInDc
-$600.00

Hazzard21 -$600.00
14
Xipooo -$700.00
15
ryeandi -$800.00
16
LilolSnake -$900.00
17
Makakilo -$1,000.00

BenSharp -$1,000.00

Xerostomia -$1,000.00

aj90 -$1,000.00
21
imstillhungry95 -$1,100.00
Basebal144 -$1,100.00
23
GuruB -$1,150.00
24
mitze -$1,200.00
25
AzRattler -$1,500.00
pete25 -$1,500.00

noblevillain -$1,500.00

Fangdango -$1,500.00

MrMrrbi -$1,500.00

Lozenge -$1,500.00

ScrubDaCubs -$1,500.00
TOTAL -$22,714.77