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Arizona Diamondbacks Game Preview, #126: Excitement, adventure and really wild games

Will tonight live up to the enthralling spectacle that was the opening game in the series?

Norm Hall/Getty Images
Rob Whalen
RHP, 1-2, 5.73
Archie Bradley
RHP, 4-8, 5.04
Ender Inciarte - CF Jean Segura - 2B
Adonis Garcia - 3B Michael Bourn - CF
Freddie Freeman - 1B Paul Goldschmidt - 1B
Matt Kemp - LF Yasmany Tomas - RF
Nick Markakis - RF Welington Castillo - C
Tyler Flowers - C Jake Lamb - 3B
Jace Peterson - 2B Mitch Haniger - LF
Dansby Swanson - SS Chris Owings - SS
Rob Whalen - RHP Archie Bradley - RHP

Say what you like about last night's game, it wasn't short of excitement. The Diamondbacks came back from 5-0 down in the middle of the second, blew a lead going into the ninth, and then won it on a walk-off home-run. No fewer than nine different DIamondbacks posted Win Probabilities for the game of more than plus or minus 10%:  six hitters (five positive and one negative) and three pitchers.(one positive and two negative). That isn't the record: there isn't any obvious way to check, but I did find this regulation length game from May 2005, where we had seven hitters, all worth more than +15% and three pitchers, all worth less than -15%.

However, it didn't actually rank as highly as you might think for average leverage index - the metric which measures the importance of an at-bat (or in this case, average over the course of a game). That results from the significant amount of time when the Braves were three runs or more ahead, and the D-backs didn't have the tying run at the plate or better. The game only really came alive in the bottom of the seventh inning, as the Diamondbacks loaded the bases with two outs, and Castillo made no mistake, taking full advantage to unload them with a go-ahead three-run double. We came in to that half-inning with a 13% chance of victory, and left at 74%.

Will tonight's game prove to be as exciting? We can only hope so, since remarkably, it will actually represent the first trip to Chase Field this year for myself and Mrs. SnakePit. [Thanks to ish95 and his family for the opportunity]. This is mostly due to work scheduling - Mrs. S and I don't have a full day off in common, and anything save a late Saturday night game requires one or other of us to take vacation time. But decided we might as well go for it here, and so I have spent the afternoon happily work-free, slumped in front of the TV and/or napping, in order to be fully prepared for tonight's game. I'll be the one wearing the D-backs shirt...