Leading up to Opening Day, anyone who wanted to was awarded fifteen hundred SnakePit dollars and invited to wager them on a series of over-under lines about the Diamondbacks' season. 31 people entered the doors of our theoretical casino, betting on anything from team wins to Brad Ziegler saves. As we go into the All-Star break )now nine games past the 50% mark), it's time to take a look at the lines so far. For each, I've given the original line, the amounts wagered on sides of that line, the projected tally based purely on the number through 54 games, and whether that projected figure would be over or under the line. That's then used to figure out the standings.
All stats are through 81 games, which was the end of the series at Chase against the Phillies last Wednesday.
Team wins: 82.5 (8850-1059) - 72, UNDER
A slight tick in the right direction, up from the 69 at the end of May. However, the 27 games crossed off the schedule probably have a bigger impact, and even the 13-14 record in June was short of the line. Starting July off 2-7 hasn't helped in the slightest, and it really seems like getting above .500 is going to be an impossible dream for the team. Personally, it feels more a question of how far short of last season's 79 wins the team will fall. If I'd to guess, right now I'd say between five and ten, but the exact number may depend how far into sell mode the team goes. If we end up with Dominic Leone closing, things could get ugly.
Goldschmidt BA: .300 (6260-350) - .298, UNDER
Goldschmidt: HR: 32.5 (531-100) - 28, UNDER
Goldschmidt RBI: 109.5 (1650-2504) - 106, UNDER
No changes here in actual direction, but BA in particular is looking a good deal healthier than it was last time we looked, when Paul Goldschmidt was hittng .269 for the year. That's because Goldie's June unfolded at a blistering pace of .350/.432/.563. He actually peeked over the top of Mount .300 for a couple of days on June 27 and 28. but ended the month fractionally below the line. 20 RBI for the month also brought that line up significantly, and he added another five in the nine games since, so is still there or thereabout. Home-runs did take a little step back, with for for Goldschmidt, but is still in the realms of possibility.
Pollock BA: .295 (50-830) - .000, UNDER
Still out, but he has now, at least, resumed baseball activities, and was seen running around Chase Field during the home-stand. Of course, running wasn't exactly the problem to begin with: I'd have been more impressed if he had been throwing or taking batting practice. Still, we'll see when or if he comes back. If Tankapalooza 2016 has a bright side, it's that there's absolutely no reason for Pollock to be hurried back. It would be nice to see him face major-league pitching before the end of the season, simply so he can get his eye back for that, in games that won't matter too much. But no big.
Peralta BA: .290 (600-969) - .259, UNDER
Peralta came back off the DL, but played only eight games before having to go back on it, and so hasn't appeared since June 14. He went 6-for-24 over that brief return, so the needle didn't move much. However, there's no doubt that his return will be welcomed by an Arizona outfield which is clearly struggling to function at replacement level over the past few games. Last we heard, the Freight Train took live batting practice before the game on July 5, but without any rehab appearances, seems any return to the main roster is still going to be a fair distance into the second half.
Greinke Wins: 15 (5850-289) - 20, OVER
Greinke ERA: 2.90 (1352-1600) - 3.62, OVER
Greinke Strikeouts: 199.5 (850-860) - 182, UNDER
June started very well for Greinke, as he won his first four outings, with an ERA of 0.87 and a K:BB ratio of 25:5. However, thing went a bit south from there, as he didn't manage a quality start in either of his final two outings, and the last one was abruptly truncated after an at-bat led to him pulling a muscle, requiring a trip to the DL (something something NL DH something). However, it was still a pretty good month, shaving more than a run off his season's ERA. Hopefully he will be able to return action soon after the All-Star break, though the way the team has been playing of late, I'm not certain they will necessarily get the six more wins needed.
Miller Wins: 11.5 (7488-0) - 4, UNDER
I suppose it's still possible Shelby Miller could pick up the necessary ten more wins after the break. He will probably have 14, maybe 15 outings to get them. But given he managed just two victories in his fourteen first-half outings, and could only handle the worst pair of offenses in the National League, I'm not overly optimistic. Okay, it would be the most remarkable resurrection since Lazarus. Probably even more so, actually, since Jesus actually appeared to knew what he was doing there, and had a clear plan to handle things. I'm far from convinced the same can be said for Mike Butcher and the D-backs front office.
Ziegler Saves: 29.5 (800-3659) - 32, OVER
After dipping below the line in May, Ziegler saved seven games in June, to move this one back over the expected line, which is good for the house. However, I won't be inclined to start cashing in those SnakePit dollars yet. On the one hand, the line does carry forward to Boston [it wasn't "Saves for the Diamondbacks"], and the Red Sox are likely to have more wins - and thus, more saves, than the Diamondbacks in the second half. On the other, it's likely Ziegler will only be closer until Craig Kimbrel comes back, which is not expected to be all that long, perhaps early August. At time of writing, Brad needs 12 more saves. Could go either way...
The only move of a line from last month is Ziegler going from below to above the line, but that does make a significant difference in the standings, with 'Hacks now the only player left holding a full hand of winning bets. But things might change, especially if Goldschmidt continues his fine form of late. Here's the full set of standings: