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2016 MLB Draft: Day 3 Open Thread

Three-quarters of all draft picks will take place today. That, however, does not mean that three-quarters of major-league players will come from this portion...

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Here's a list of the best players - those with a career value of one win or greater - taken by the Diamondbacks over the course of their draft history (since 1996), who came from outside the first ten rounds:

  • 1996: 36th round, Junior Spivey (career bWAR 8.2)
  • 1998: 29th round, Mike Koplove (3.5)
  • 1999: 18th round, Lyle Overbay (16.9)
  • 2000: 17th round, Doug Slaten (1.7)
  • 2001: 11th round, Dan Uggla (17.6)
  • 2004: 16th round, Mark Reynolds (6.7)
  • 2007: 15th round, Josh Collmenter (7.6)
  • 2007, 26th round, Tommy Layne (1.7)
  • 2008, 27th round, Ryan Cook (3,2)
  • 2010, 19th round, Adam Eaton (12.7)

We haven't had one since Eaton, though of course, those players have perhaps not had enough time to develop fully. If we draw the cutoff there, that's a total of 450 players drafted in rounds 11-40 by the Diamondbacks, ten of whom have gone on to be useful major-leaguers (for a loose definition of "useful"). Using that percentage, we have roughly a 50-50 chance (49.04%, to be precise) of finding someone like that out of today's selections. There's a 51% chance we get nobody at all, and a 14.3% chance we end up with more than one. Remind me to check back in 2022 and see what happened!

Not sure what kind of traction we might get from this, or if anyone is even going to be paying attention, but there may be a pick or two of interest down the pipe. At least there is no delay here, with picks following each other  immediately. The draft just got under way, at 9am Arizona time, and as yesterday, is live on