|Jean Segura - 2B||Nick Markakis - RF|
|Jake Lamb - 3B||Ender Inciarte - LF|
|Paul Goldschmidt - 1B||Freddie Freeman - 1B|
|David Peralta - RF||A.J. Pierzynski - C|
|Welington Castillo - C||Reid Brignac - 3B|
|Brandon Drury - LF||Erick Aybar - SS|
|Chris Owings - CF||Daniel Castro - 2B|
|Shelby Miller - RHP||Julio Teheran - RHP|
|Nick Ahmed - SS||Mallex Smith - CF|
Both starters here are looking for their first win, having gone 0-3 in their outings so far. However, this is more evidence - as if any were needed - of the questionable stat for a pitcher which is W-L. For Teheran has three quality starts over his six outings, and an average Game Score of 55; Miller has no quality starts, and his best Game Score is 42. Teheran's last outing involved seven shutout innings against a very good Cubs offense, holding them to two hits but getting a no-decision. the Braves eventually winning that one, 4-3. That represents a season high in run-support, as over his previous five outings, where Atlanta scored him a total of 10 runs.
On that basis, starting Miller against the Braves makes sense, because their offense has been historically abysmal. Thus far, the wRC+ is just 56. The lowest mark in the live-ball era over a full season belongs to the 1920 Athletics, but they are more than ten points better than the Braves, at 67. Atlanta are batting .226, with a .582 OPS and a mere six home-runs. Coming into today, there are forty-one players who have hit six or more home-runs this season, including three in today's line-up for the Diamondbacks: Drury, Castillo and Goldschmidt. Also likely helpful, given Shelby's struggles: Atlanta rank 12th for walks.
It may also help that he has pitched well at Turner Field in the past, with a career ERA over 19 outings there of 2.52, compared to a career ERA of 3.43. Of course, thanks mostly to last season's epic streak of winless futility, his record in the park is a nondescript 4-10. Still, if he can't beat the Braves - and having watched them play last night, their current projected record of 41-121 seems entirely credible - then further starts should likely be filed away in the box marked "doing the same thing over and over, expecting a different result."