Leading up to Opening Day, anyone who wanted to was awarded fifteen hundred SnakePit dollars and invited to wager them on a series of over-under lines about the Diamondbacks' season. 31 people entered the doors of our theoretical casino, betting on anything from team wins to Brad Ziegler saves. Slightly over one month in, we're also one-sixth of the way through the 162-game campaign, so let's take a look at the lines so far. For each, I've given the original line, the amounts wagered on sides of that line, the projected tally based purely on the number so far, and whether that projected figure would be over or under the line. That's then used to figure out the standings.
Team wins: 82.5 (8850-1059) - 72, UNDER
And it was going so well, too. If we'd just won the last series against the Rockies, this line would be projected at 84, and the near 90% of people who wagered on us beating it would be in the money. Instead, we were swept, and we find ourselves on pace for a lower win total than last season. Given the cost, both in prospects and Ken Kendrick's money, that isn't going to be acceptable to anyone. However, things aren't so bad they cannot be turned around: remember how depressed we all were before the five-game winning streak? Do that again, with the upcoming week against Miami and Atlanta certainly a good opportunity, and we'll be a bit more cheerful.
Goldschmidt BA: .300 (6260-350) - .239, UNDER
Goldschmidt: HR: 32.5 (531-100) - 36, OVER
Goldschmidt RBI: 109.5 (1650-2504) - 96, UNDER
Paul Goldschmidt has had a really odd start to the season. He is the first National League hitter since Barry Bonds in 2007 with an opening month where he had 20+ hits, but also more walks than hits. May started the same way, with two bases on balls but no hits. At current pace he'll break his own franchise record for bases on balls on August 16. However, that hasn't stopped him from hitting the ball out of the park at a solid rate, six times so far, to tie with Welington Castillo for the team lead. On the other hand, only one of those has come with a runner on base - the two-run shot in the ninth against the Pirates - which is partly why he has only 16 RBI, three below what he'd need to be on pace for beating the line.
Pollock BA: .295 (50-830) - .000, UNDER
Not much to say here. Technically, his batting average is "undefined", being zero divided by zero, but I'm not going to get into the whole "irrational numbers" debate at this point. Hopefully, A.J. Pollock will get some at-bats before the end of the season and render the discussion moot as to whether 0/0 is more or less than .295. But those who wagered on this one may want to start reading up on their theoretical mathematics, so they can make the appropriate argument!
Peralta BA: .290 (600-969) - .255, UNDER
The Freight Train was doing not too badly through the first game of the Cardinals' series, where a two-hit night raised his average for the season to .277. But over the last six games against St. Louis and Colorado, Peralta has gone 4-for-23, with one walk and no extra-base hits, so his BA has dropped by 22 points. One good thing is Peralta is hanging in there fairly well against left-handed pitching so far with an OPS of .673 that's almost the same as last year. The main problem for Peralta has been a lack of power, with just two home-runs to date which is fewer than Nick Ahmed - indeed, fewer than everyone with more than 35 PA, bar Chris Owings.
Greinke Wins: 15 (5850-289) - 12, UNDER
Greinke ERA: 2.90 (1352-1600) - 5.50, OVER
Greinke Strikeouts: 199.5 (850-860) - 192, UNDER
Not exactly the start for which we were hoping from Greinke, was it? That said, both Wins and Strikeouts are not doing too badly at this point: he's one-half of a win and two strikeouts away from the lines respectively, so has plenty of time to turn things around. The ERA will be tougher. if we presume he matches last season's total of 222.2 innings, in order to have an ERA of better (lower) than 2.90, Greinke now needs to give the Diamondbacks an ERA of 2.34 the rest of the way. That's not impossible, but it's certainly a damn sight harder after a couple of starts already, where he was charged with seven earned runs. Still, at least there's a chance, which is more than it seems for...
Miller Wins: 11.5 (7488-0) - 0, UNDER
Welp. In all the years we've been running this, I'm not sure we've ever had a bet where every single dollar went on the same side of the line, only for things to go south so quickly. Six starts in, Miller is winless: indeed, in half of his games, he hasn't even pitched the minimum five innings necessary to get a W. Going back to his time in Atlanta, Shelby now has one win in his last 31 starts. He has got two starts to get his first victory as a Diamondback - and based on Sunday, I'm not optimistic that's going to happen, or he will have been pitching for an entire year with just that solitary W. I hope he turns it around; in the meantime, the house will enjoy rolling around in all the money.
Ziegler Saves: 29.5 (800-3659) - 30, OVER
Squeaking past by the narrowest possible margin, Ziegler has notched five saves to date, and at least the meltdown he had over the weekend means his ERA and FIP are now much closer to each other. For the same of his save streak, let's hope he has now "got that out of his system" and we can go forward with confidence. I'm a bit worried by Brad's early-season control, having walked six batters in only 11.1 innings. He's never been a high strikeout guy, but that walk-rate is more than double what it was in 2015. Still, there's no indication his job is in any risk, especially if he keeps dialing up those double-play balls (he is currently tied for the team lead, with four)
These are provisional, and based upon me having correctly transcribed the numbers from the original comments over into my spreadsheet. I did some basic sanity-checking, e.g. making sure the totals for each player came to A$1,500, but I may have moved your line from an over to an under. Please check your original slips. :)
Ouch. That'll leave a mark, with close to half the competitors (14 of 31) currently losing every one of their wagers. Miller's wins, team wins and Goldy's batting average were the most popular wrong choices thus far. All told, those taking part are A$27,415 in the hole after the first month, on a total wagered of A$46,500. However, it wouldn't surprise me if at least one of those changed sides over the remaining 135 games. For the sake of many punters' utility bills, they will be hoping so!