Arizona Diamondbacks 2016 Preview: Third-base

Jake Lamb called last year "a big learning experience". How much do you agree?

Preston: I can't really say how much he learned. I certainly agree that he had plenty of opportunities to learn, and should have more of a game-plan going into 2016. As far as whether he learned to right things, we'll just have to wait for the season to figure out.

Piratedan7: Well, we can't properly assess that until we see some AB's and fielding this year.... learning is one thing, applying lessons learned is another.

Makakilo: I agree very much for two reasons. First, in his second season in the majors, he had three times as many games and PAs as his first season. The increased playing time is evidence of talent and learning. Second, due to his foot injury, he did not play in the majors from 19 April until 6 June. After his rehab, he had a mini-slump. Lamb said the 2015 season taught him there will be ups and downs, and he has no doubts the season made him a better player. I have heard other players say their confidence was greatly increased after they bounced back from a slump. This injury and slump has likely increased Jake Lamb's confidence to bounce back from his next slump.

Xipooo: It was his first full year at the big leagues except for the rehab time, so yeah, that's a lot of things to learn. Not just pitching wise, but also clubhouse wise.

Jim: It was almost bound to be, given he had only 37 major-league appearances to his name. It was almost bound to be a different game. But if that was the case, it might bother some how there didn't seem to be much progression: July OPS = .715; August OPS = .682. September = .678. However, what I did note was the steady improvement, after he came back off the DL, in Lamb's K:BB ratio. In June, he had 22 strikeouts and just four walks. But by September, that had improved all the way to 23:13. That does suggest he improved his plate discipline over the course of the year, and that's that I wouldn't actually mind if he got to try his hand at the top of the order in 2016.

Can Lamb make third-base his own?

Preston: I think he has the capability, but he is going to have to have a great spring in order to do it going into the season. Brandon Drury isn't far behind him, and if Jean Segura keeps hitting or Phil Gosselin picks it up and they want Drury on the team, we'll be looking at a platoon at third base. And while that might not be good for the future development of either player, this isn't about development any more, it's about winning now.

Piratedan7: If he produces, sure... if not... Hello! Brandon Drury

Makakilo: Jake Lamb can win the position based on his outstanding defense and based on his good-enough offense.

• Outstanding Defense. What surprised me is that Jake Lamb may be the best defender at third in the National League! His injury kept him from being nominated for a gold glove. He did not reach the 137 games required for the SABR Defensive Index (SDI) - which is weighted 25%. The following table compares Lamb to the National League Gold Glove nominees. It shows Lamb was the best defender using statistics that do not penalize Lamb for playing less games and less innings.

  Third Base 2015 from Fangraphs	Revised Zone Rating (RZR)	Plays Made Out of Zone (OOZ) per 100 innings	Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) per 150 defensive games
  Jake Lamb	79%	5.8	12.9
  Nolan Arenado	76%	5.4	4.6
  Matt Duffy	75%	4.9	12.7
  Todd Frazier	75%	4.4	7.5

• Good Enough Offense, part 1. The next table compares Lamb's offense to Nick Ahmed because both are defensive stars. Lamb has the better offense. Just like Nick Ahmed, Lamb's offense is good enough!

  2015	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
  Jake Lamb	.263	.331	.386	.716
  Nick Ahmed	.226	.275	.375	.634

• Good Enough Offense, part 2. A platoon is possible with Philip Gosselin, perhaps the best hitter of nine other players who could possibly play third for the Diamondbacks. The small sample size caveat applies to Gosselin's offense, which is based on 44 games in 2015. Can Gosselin repeat in a full season? And, the small sample caveat applies to Gosselin's defense at third, which is based on a total of 16 games at third base over the last two years. It would be risky to play Gosselin at third base. If I platooned Lamb and Gosselin, I would always start Lamb, and pinch hit Gosselin with runners in scoring position. In 2015, Gosselin hit .423 compared to Lamb's .190 with runners in scoring position.

  2015	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
  Jake Lamb	.263	.331	.386	.716
  Philip Gosselin	.311	.373	.500	.873

Xipooo: Yes. (Don't you just love one word answers?)

Jim: I'm cautiously optimistic, though part of that is down to the lack of real alternatives. He still has less than 150 major-league games on his resume, and was only 24 for the entirety of last season. There weren't many younger everyday players at the hot corner. His OPS+ improved from 75 to 94, and I think it can improve by about the same again in 2016: couple that with his very solid defense there, and at league minimum salary, Lamb should be perfectly acceptable.

What are his strengths and weaknesses?

Preston: Across the minor leagues, he was a high-OBP guy. His walk rate was a very healthy 12%, but his BABIP was .380 in 2013 and .399 in 2014. So we should have seen some regression coming. In 2015, his BABIP was still healthy (.344) and his walk rate was a very decent 9%, which helped him to a .331 OBP. But his power wasn't there. He's a very useful and generally patient hitter, but I'm afraid that for him to be at the level we would like to see, that BABIP is going to need to be up in the .370 range at least, and this seems improbable. Of course, Lamb is also very strong with the glove. He posted 7 defensive runs saved last year in under 800 innings at third base, and UZR backs up this, rating him at 8.7 last year. He also would back up Goldy at first, something that his competition for third base won't do.

Piratedan7: He's not Aaron Hill, nor does he appear to be Mark Reynolds. Preston alludes to his history, and we hope that this will translate at this level... but you know... matt davidson was highly thought of, so was Mike Olt.. so at this point, I'd say that he didn't suck too bad last year and he's young and so we hope that with experience comes production.

Makakilo: His strength is defense. His hitting has some weaknesses. That indicates to me that improvement is possible. The following table shows he hits better against righty pitchers.

	PAs	BA	hits	single	double	triple	HR	RBI
lefty	51	.200	9	8	0	0	1	3
righty	339	.272	83	58	15	5	5	31

The following table shows he hits better in away games than home games.

	PAs	BA	hits	single	double	triple	HR	RBI
home	190	.226	38	29	4	4	1	17
away	200	.297	54	37	11	1	5	17

The following table shows he hits best with a runner on base, and worst with runners in scoring position.

situation	batting average
runner on base	.274
bases empty	.256
runners in scoring position	.190

Xipooo: Really, I'd say he's an overall decent player but needs to learn how to hit left handed pitching if he's going to play everyday. I'm not sure the current regime will give him a lot of AB's against lefties either considering the options they have in the infield. His defense is solid though, which might give him at least a few more chances against lefties than last year.

Makakilo: Late breaking news: This spring, Jake Lamb may have found a way to improve his hitting. For details see Ryan Morrison's article at Inside the Zona.

Jim: I was disappointed by his lack of power, and would like to see that improve in 2016. He had only one home-runs every 65 major-league PAs last year, compared to better than one every 30 in the minors. Third-base is generally expected to be one of the power-packed positions, and Lamb's ISO of .123 was well below the NL average there, of .167. On the other hand, I'll point to the improving plate discipline mentioned earlier as a good sign, and it's one of the reasons I would not be averse to seeing him up at the top of the order, especially if the power continues to be limited. If he isn't going to drive in runs, then getting on base ahead of the likes of Goldschmidt and Peralta will do almost as well.

Will he be allowed to face left-handed hitting this year?

Preston: Unless there's a last minute rule change to remove the use of LOOGYs from the game, he'll have to. And while we have complained about their inclination to platoon, we certainly can't accuse them of not adjusting. Just look at David Peralta last year. Coming into the year, he "couldn't hit left hand pitching." After he started doing well against LOOGYs, he stopped being platooned, and this year is expected to play every day. Lamb could take a similar route.

Piratedan7: I hope so, at least we won't have the kabuki of trying to keep Aaron Hill's trade value up....

Makakilo: The question is whether to platoon Jake Lamb, and if so in what situations. An article at Inside the Zona speculated that Lamb would do well against left-handed fly-ball pitchers who pitch down in the zone. Maybe the home-away split is a more significant split. As I said in my last answer, the baserunner situation could be a very effective way to decide when to pinch hit for Jake Lamb.

In summary, allowing Lamb to bat against left-handed pitchers would be a good approach. If a platoon is used, there are likely better ways to platoon than whether the pitcher is a lefty or a righty.

Xipooo: Yes, initially he will get more experience, but if his numbers continue to drop off the table against LHP there will be some definite platooning for him. I do think the front office is hoping to turn him into the permanent 3rd base player. He's good enough defensively and has plenty of power.

Jim: I'd really like to get an answer of why it happened so rarely last year. I mean, FOUR starts against an opposing lefty? Admittedly, he only hit .172, but how is he going to get any better if he doesn't get the opportunities. If that's going to continue this year, we do need someone who can be good as the other half of the platoon. I'm not sure Phil Gosselin is the answer to that particular question. Which is a nice segue into...

What's the back-up plan? Is it sufficient?

Preston: It would be hard to find fault with the number of options behind Lamb, if the quality might leave something to be desired. Brandon Drury (ranked as the #3 prospect in the franchise) wouldn't be much of a drop-off. He's not quite as slick with the glove, but has better range, and while Drury would make the lineup even more right-hand heavy, he's good with the bat, too. Behind Drury, we have Phil Gosselin, who lacks the arm strength to be an everyday third baseman, but can fill in if needed. Going deeper, Jack Reinheimer is another option, and even Sean Jamieson could play there if needed. Realistically, though, third base is a position of weakness. Either Lamb or Drury has to live up to potential in order for the team to compete, I think.

Piratedan7: What... Drury and Gosselin not enough? You want MORE! Who are you people! Can't you think for yourselves? Why do you have to be so constantly depressing me with all of these "what if" scenarios? What if we find out that the D-Bat Dog is actually GOOD for you, hah! what about that?

Xipooo: I'd say Gosselin is the most likely candidate, but more likely a platoon option than an actual replacement. Lamb would have to get injured again for him to be replaced. Under those circumstances I think you bring up Drury.

Makakilo: Gosselin and Drury are talented backups at third. Other infielders in the minors could be ready soon, such as Rickie Weeks, Joaquin Arias, Carlos Rivero, Sean Jamieson, and Jack Reinheimer. Although Segura and Owings would be better placed at second, they are possibles. Overall, the backup plan is sufficient.

Jim. I'm not quite as confident about Gosselin at some. There's a reason he's 27, yet still hasn't had 250 major-league at-bats - and that's despite playing for Atlanta, who were hardly over-supplied with talent the past couple of seasons. His overall stats are nice, but I don't think a career .339 BABIP is sustainable. With a below-average walk-rate and not much power, his value seems highly batting average driven. So, is he really the .311 hitter he was last year? Be nice, but I remain to be convinced.