2016 Arizona Diamondbacks Preview: Optimism - Why We Will Win The NL West

Lao Tzu wrote, "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are going."

The Diamondbacks have changed direction. Their philosophy has changed from "our players have more grit" to "we play baseball the right way." They will win the NL West. Let’s go through a five step process to understand the reasons.

STEP 1. Let’s start from the 2015 WAR baselines from the Baseball Reference website.

Team	starting pitching	relief pitching	position players	weak positions
Diamondbacks	-3.1	-1.7	12.4	second, third
Giants	0.4	1.2	7.5	outfield
Dodgers	10.3	-2.0	5.0	shortstop
Rockies	-0.2	0.3	-4.7	first, left, shortstop
Padres	-4.6	-2.8	-2.4	third, right, shortstop

STEP 2. Let’s talk about the most significant changes in each team and the impact on the baseline WARs.

Diamondbacks.

• Starting Pitching. The big and bold additions were Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller. They will transform Diamondbacks starting pitching from worst in the NL West to Best. Patrick Corbin pitched great last year, and will pitch more games this year. Beyond those changes, I see pitching upside because Welington Castillo has improved his pitch framing, and Chris Herrmann was added as an additional backup catcher.

Change	Impact
Greinke & Miller (valued at 3-year average WAR) replace Anderson and Hellickson	+5.8+2.7-0.8-0.0=+7.8 WAR
Corbin starts 22 games instead of 16	+1.8-1.3=+0.5 WAR

• Relief pitching. Tyler Clippard is an awesome addition to the bullpen. Like Addison Reed, he could close, but will be more valuable in another role. Beyond that change, I see upside because, unlike last year, the bullpen will not be overtaxed because the starting pitchers will go farther into games.

Change	Impact
Clippard replaces Reed	+1.5-(-0.1)=+1.6 WAR

• Position players. Diamondback offense (720 runs scored) and defense (2 gold gloves) were outstanding in 2015, and spring training confirms that fact. As of 20 March, the Diamondbacks had scored 144 runs in spring training, 22 more than any other team. The core remains intact with just a couple of changes. Jean Segura will eliminate the weakness at second base. He has been awesome in spring training, and I see additional upside. Jake Lamb will own third instead of sharing with Tomas, Hill, and others. With Nick Ahmed, Philip Gosselin, and Brandon Drury, the Diamondbacks have quality infield depth. Paul Goldschmidt will own first base. On the loss side, Inciarte (5.3 WAR) will be replaced with a combination of Socrates Brito and Yasmany Tomas.

Change	Impact
Segura owns second (valued at three year average WAR)	+1.5-(-2.3)=3.8 WAR
Lamb owns third instead of Tomas, Hill, …	+1.7-(-0.9)=2.6 WAR
Brito and Tomas replace Inciarte	+2.1-5.3=-3.2 WAR

Giants.

• Starting Pitching. On paper, the addition of Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija looks like an improvement compared to the losses of Leake, Lincecum, Hudson, and Volgelson. In reality, the Giants rotation has significant downside risk – Peavy is 35 with back issues, Cueto may have a health concern, and Samardzija and Cain had bad results in 2015. Odds are that at least one of these downside risks will be realized.

Change	Impact
Add Cueto and Samardzija	+3.9+0.2-0.0=4.1 WAR

• Relief Pitching. Giants relief pitching remains the best in the NL West. No change in predicted WAR.

• Position Players. An attempt was made to address the outfield weakness by adding Denard Span and Kyle Blanks to replace Byrd and Aoki. And the return of Hunter Pence is significant. Nevertheless, the outfield remains weak.

Change	Impact
Span and Blanks replace Byrd and Aoki	+0.8+0.2-0.6-1.0=-0.6 WAR
Pence plays 155 games instead of 52	+2.3-1.0=1.3 WAR

Dodgers.

• Starting Pitching. What a shock it must have been to lose Grienke! Instead, the Dodgers added Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda. There is significant downside risk due to a steep drop-off of Kazmir’s velocity this spring, and Maeda’s physical results. The Dodgers have problems because 1) Brett Anderson had back surgery, 2) Hyan-Jin Ryu had shoulder surgery, 3) Brandon McCarthy is out from Tommy John surgery, and 4) Alex Wood missed a spring training start due to forearm tightness. The Dodgers have a difficult choice for the fifth spot in the rotation. I note that Mike Bolsinger has a very slow "fastball", and Brandon Beachy has had two elbow surgeries.

Change	Impact
Kazmir and Maeda replace Greinke and Anderson	+3.3+0.0-9.3-1.5=-7.5 WAR

• Relief Pitching. The new relief pitcher, Joe Blanton, is 35 years old. His WAR was 1.2 in 2015, he did not pitch in 2014, and his WAR was -2.0 in 2013. His three year average WAR is less than zero. I counted no impact. The Dodgers’ relief pitching remains weak.

• The Dodgers eliminated their weakness at shortstop by replacing Rollins with Corey Seager.

Change	Impact
Seager replaces Rollins	+1.8-(-0.1)=1.9 WAR

Rockies.

• Starting Pitching. A significant impact was made when Jorden Lyles and Jon Gray replaced Kendrick and Butler.

Change	Impact
Lyle and Gray replace Kendrick and Butler	+0.3+0.3-(-0.5)-(-0.5)=2.6 WAR

• Relief Pitching. A small impact was made by adding Jake McGee to replace Axford .

Change	Impact
McGee replaces Axford	+1.0-0.8=0.2 WAR

• Position Players. The weaknesses in first and left were eliminated by the additions of Gerardo Parra and Ben Paulsen. The weakness at short, which resulted from trading Tulowitszki, remain.

Change	Impact
Gerardo Parra replaces Dickerson and Barnes	+1.0-.5-(-1.0)=1.5 WAR
Ben Paulsen replaces Wilin Rosario	+0.8-(-1.3)=2.1 WAR
Jose Reyes replaces Troy Tulowitzki	-0.2-1.4=-1.6 WAR

Padres.

• Starting Pitching. A significant impact was made by adding Robbie Erlin and Brandon Maurer. Nevertheless, the Padres have the weakest starting pitching in the NL West.

Change	Impact
Erlin and Maurer replace Kennedy and Despagne	+0.1+0.6-(-0.4)-(-1.3)= 2.4 WAR

• Relief Pitching. The Padres have the weakest relief pitching in the NL West.

Change	Impact
Rodney replaces Benoit and Kimbrel	-0.6-1.8-1.3=-3.7 WAR

• Position Players. The shortstop weakness was eliminated by adding Alexei Ramirez. Justin Upton was a huge loss. The weaknesses in right field and third base remain.

Change	Impact
Alexei Ramirez replaces Anista	+1.0-(-0.5)=1.5 WAR
Jon Jay replaces Justin Upton	-0.2-4.4=-4.6 WAR

STEP 3. Predicted WAR for 2016 based on the changes talked about.

Team	starting pitching	relief pitching	position players	weak positions
Diamondbacks	5.1	-0.1	15.6
Giants	4.5	1.2	8.2	outfield
Dodgers	2.8	-2.0	6.8
Rockies	2.4	0.5	-2.7	shortstop
Padres	-2.2	-6.5	-5.5	third and right

STEP 4. Age-related WAR reduction. Looking at each player would have been tedious and debatable. Instead, teams will be compared by looking at the average age of their predicted 25-man rosters.

Team	Average age of 25-man roster	Estimated regression in WAR
Diamondbacks	27.4	0
Giants	29.8	1.3
Dodgers	29.8	1.3
Rockies	29.1	0.8
Padres	28.7	0.6

STEP 5. Ranking the NL West teams. Start from number of wins in 2015, add the increase/decrease in WAR, and subtract age-related WAR reduction.

• Diamondbacks 92 wins

• Giants 87.5 wins

• Dodgers 85 wins

• Rockies 72 wins

• Padres 69 wins

Summary

The Diamondbacks will win the NL West because they have the best starting pitching and they have far superior position players. Starting pitching is best because 1) Diamondbacks added Grienke and Miller, 2) Castillo improved his pitch framing, 3) Dodgers pitching will be much worse than last year, and 4) Giants pitching has significant downside risk. Position players are far superior because 1) the outstanding core from last year is young and remains intact with only a couple changes, 2) quality infield depth (Lamb, Ahmed, Segura, Gosselin, Drury) will eliminate the weak results at second base and third base, and 3) Diamondbacks play the game the right way.