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Predict the D-backs Opening Day roster: prediscussion thread

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As we head into spring training, time for another SnakePit competition, I think...

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

We had the "off-season prediction" contest back before the winter meetings, so we'll see how those prophecies shaped up once the season starts. But I figured it might be fun, before pitchers and catchers report at the end of next week, to have another contest to predict the Opening Day roster. This thread is to chew over the format; I've come up with an idea, but want to see if there are any obvious holes in it, or if you can come up with suggestions to improve it. Overview of the basic concept is:

  1. You pick 10 players who will be on the Opening Day roster. I kinda figured requiring the full 25 would be too much of a slog.
  2. Of course, some players are more likely to be on the roster than others.
  3. To this end, I'll be splitting the 40-man roster into five groups: the dead-certs, the highly likelys, the likelys, the possibles and the long shots.
  4. You get one point if you pick a dead-cert (say, Paul Goldschmidt) and he makes the roster; two for a highly likely, and so on down to five for a long shot.
  5. You also get a wild-card slot, for a player not on the 40-man currently. This can be a non-roster invitee, a currently unsigned free agent, etc. 10 point jackpot if they make the Opening Day roster!
  6. Most points across the 11 total choices wins... nothing at all, except the respect of your peers.
  7. Obviously, any signing announcement, trade, etc. removes that player from wild-card capability.
  8. Anyone removed from the 40-man roster, remains in their original group.
  9. Not sure whether to require everyone to pick two players from each group, or just allow free selection for all ten of your picks? Leaning toward the former, but open to thoughts.
  10. Probably run it next week, entries to close when pitchers and catchers report on Feb 17.

Thoughts, comments, suggestions, scenarios I've forgotten to address etc. welcome over the weekend.