These projections are of interest, since they take a different route from the bet-based ones we saw of Atlantis, yet neither are they absolutely sabermetric-based, like ZIPS or Steeamer. To quote the article,"our win totals are based on exactly how many games we think each team will win – with no need to make adjustments for the betting public’s anticipated reaction. And unlike the many excellent projection models out there, we are not beholden to formulas capable of producing strikingly accurate statistical projections, but lack an occasionally necessary human element.We’ll take the liberty of adding a dash of what we’ll call Projected Unforeseen Events,"
Here's the numbers for all 30 teams.
That would see the D-backs miss out on a wild-card spot, but it'll be close - if this comes to pass, they'd be two games behind the Dodgers and Pirates, who would play off for the second-wild card position. More, somewhat inexplicable, love for the Giants here, though if it isn't to be us, I guess I'd rather see them with the division than the Dodgers. But looks like the Cubs are going to be a near-unstoppable juggernaut. But you know the last time any Cubs team had 101+ wins? 1910. Even last year's 97 wins hasn't been surpassed by them since 1935.
As far as the D-backs are concerned, it's a little more encouraging, though it puts them behind the Mets for the second wild-card spot, as well as LA and Pittsburgh. But a two-game swing is virtually nothing; and even the four-game gap by which we trail the Giants would be well within the typical margin of error for such things. I'm trying to think the last time we were projected by any neutral system with a win total in the upper eighties. 2012 maybe? Certainly, been a while...