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Project the Diamondbacks Win Total for 2016

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In a fun offseason exercise, I have a spreadsheet available for the average fan to project how he or she thinks the team will fare. Now that we've hit the slow part of the offseason between the Winter Meetings and New Year's. It does not necessarily mean the team is done making moves.

Obligatory Torey Lovullo picture.
Obligatory Torey Lovullo picture.
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

For a fun exercise this Winter, I put up my own projection chart for how I think the Diamondbacks will fare individually. Overall, the calculations themselves aren't as precise as top baseball stat webpages like Fangraphs or Baseball Reference because the formulas I use themselves are imperfect. Overall, I utilized an overall Park Factor of 105 for Chase Field in the calculations for calculating +/- metrics like wRC+, ERA-, etc. Fangraphs depth chart projects the Dbacks will put up 29.0 WAR in 2017 and finish 76-86.

Using the payroll regression formula, the Diamondbacks current estimated payroll of $90.85M and a league average of $150M, that puts the team at 74-88. I project the Diamondbacks position players to put up 19.0 WAR and the pitching staff 13.8 WAR. That adds up to 32.8 WAR or a 80-82 record projection. Another W-L prediction, I used with the team's 2016 record of 69-93 as the baseline. The Diamondbacks contributed 24.5 WAR in 2016 and are projected for 32.8 WAR in 2017 or a 8.3 WAR increase. Add those wins to the 2016 record and the 2017 record projects to 77-85. The final record projection I used is Pythagorean record, with the team scoring 722 runs on offense and the pitching allowing 791 runs. That adds up to a 72-90 record. That puts a prediction low of 72 wins and a high of 80 wins. I took the average of the four predictors and got 76 wins, so my prediction for 2017 is 76-86 with the current roster. You can find this on the final tab of the spreadsheet.

Here is the spreadsheet itself for you to play around with. I also welcome anyone to use this spreadsheet to write a fan post about how they think the team will perform in 2017. Please don't change the formulas though, I spent hours inserting and proofreading them.