Project the Diamondbacks Win Total for 2016

For a fun exercise this Winter, I put up my own projection chart for how I think the Diamondbacks will fare individually. Overall, the calculations themselves aren't as precise as top baseball stat webpages like Fangraphs or Baseball Reference because the formulas I use themselves are imperfect. Overall, I utilized an overall Park Factor of 105 for Chase Field in the calculations for calculating +/- metrics like wRC+, ERA-, etc. Fangraphs depth chart projects the Dbacks will put up 29.0 WAR in 2017 and finish 76-86.

Using the payroll regression formula, the Diamondbacks current estimated payroll of $90.85M and a league average of $150M, that puts the team at 74-88. I project the Diamondbacks position players to put up 19.0 WAR and the pitching staff 13.8 WAR. That adds up to 32.8 WAR or a 80-82 record projection. Another W-L prediction, I used with the team's 2016 record of 69-93 as the baseline. The Diamondbacks contributed 24.5 WAR in 2016 and are projected for 32.8 WAR in 2017 or a 8.3 WAR increase. Add those wins to the 2016 record and the 2017 record projects to 77-85. The final record projection I used is Pythagorean record, with the team scoring 722 runs on offense and the pitching allowing 791 runs. That adds up to a 72-90 record. That puts a prediction low of 72 wins and a high of 80 wins. I took the average of the four predictors and got 76 wins, so my prediction for 2017 is 76-86 with the current roster. You can find this on the final tab of the spreadsheet.

Here is the spreadsheet itself for you to play around with. I also welcome anyone to use this spreadsheet to write a fan post about how they think the team will perform in 2017. Please don't change the formulas though, I spent hours inserting and proofreading them.