FanPost

Fernando Rodney: You don't know the half of it

File under "Reliever Volatility"

Fernando Rodney over the last 3 seasons has been quite up and down, looking at his first and second halves.

He's had a couple of great first halves, (2014 & 2016) a couple of truly horrific halves, (2015 first & 2016 second) and a couple of mediocore halves., (2014 and 2015 2nd halves)

Overall the 3 year average isn't terrible, but it's not great.

Year Split G IP ERA SV WHIP HR9 SO9 BB.9 SO/W
2014 1st Half 38 36.33 1.98 27 1.13 0.2 10.4 3.0 3.5
2014 2nd Half 31 30 3.90 21 1.60 0.6 10.2 4.8 2.1
2015 1st Half 37 36 5.50 16 1.53 1.5 7.0 4.3 1.7
2015 2nd Half 31 26.67 3.71 0 1.24 1.0 10.1 4.0 2.5
2016 1st Half 34 34.67 1.04 17 0.92 0.3 9.9 3.9 2.5
2016 2nd Half 33 30.67 6.16 8 1.92 1.2 10.6 6.5 1.6
204 194.34 3.66 89 1.38 0.8 9.6 4.4 2.2

However, what happens if we take out the first half of 2014. Sure, it's a selective begin and end point, but I think I can be given some leeway here given his age and likely decline. Since the 2nd half of 2014, he has one great half, 2 horrible halves, and 2 mediocre halves.

Year Split G IP ERA SV WHIP HR9 SO9 BB.9 SO/W
2014 2nd Half 31 30 3.90 21 1.60 0.6 10.2 4.8 2.1
2015 1st Half 37 36 5.50 16 1.53 1.5 7.0 4.3 1.7
2015 2nd Half 31 26.67 3.71 0 1.24 1.0 10.1 4.0 2.5
2016 1st Half 34 34.67 1.04 17 0.92 0.3 9.9 3.9 2.5
2016 2nd Half 33 30.67 6.16 8 1.92 1.2 10.6 6.5 1.6
166 158.01 4.04 62 1.44 0.9 9.5 4.7 2.0













If I'm projecting Rodney, I have no idea what to expect. I think the odds that he has another great first half like he did in 2016 are less than 30%, given he's had a great half 2 out of his last 6, AND he's 40 now.......so odds going down for greatness.... ;)