File under "Reliever Volatility"
Fernando Rodney over the last 3 seasons has been quite up and down, looking at his first and second halves.
He's had a couple of great first halves, (2014 & 2016) a couple of truly horrific halves, (2015 first & 2016 second) and a couple of mediocore halves., (2014 and 2015 2nd halves)
Overall the 3 year average isn't terrible, but it's not great.
Year | Split | G | IP | ERA | SV | WHIP | HR9 | SO9 | BB.9 | SO/W |
2014 | 1st Half | 38 | 36.33 | 1.98 | 27 | 1.13 | 0.2 | 10.4 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
2014 | 2nd Half | 31 | 30 | 3.90 | 21 | 1.60 | 0.6 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 |
2015 | 1st Half | 37 | 36 | 5.50 | 16 | 1.53 | 1.5 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 |
2015 | 2nd Half | 31 | 26.67 | 3.71 | 0 | 1.24 | 1.0 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 |
2016 | 1st Half | 34 | 34.67 | 1.04 | 17 | 0.92 | 0.3 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 2.5 |
2016 | 2nd Half | 33 | 30.67 | 6.16 | 8 | 1.92 | 1.2 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 1.6 |
204 | 194.34 | 3.66 | 89 | 1.38 | 0.8 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 |
However, what happens if we take out the first half of 2014. Sure, it's a selective begin and end point, but I think I can be given some leeway here given his age and likely decline. Since the 2nd half of 2014, he has one great half, 2 horrible halves, and 2 mediocre halves.
Year | Split | G | IP | ERA | SV | WHIP | HR9 | SO9 | BB.9 | SO/W |
2014 | 2nd Half | 31 | 30 | 3.90 | 21 | 1.60 | 0.6 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 |
2015 | 1st Half | 37 | 36 | 5.50 | 16 | 1.53 | 1.5 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 |
2015 | 2nd Half | 31 | 26.67 | 3.71 | 0 | 1.24 | 1.0 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 |
2016 | 1st Half | 34 | 34.67 | 1.04 | 17 | 0.92 | 0.3 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 2.5 |
2016 | 2nd Half | 33 | 30.67 | 6.16 | 8 | 1.92 | 1.2 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 1.6 |
166 | 158.01 | 4.04 | 62 | 1.44 | 0.9 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 |
If I'm projecting Rodney, I have no idea what to expect. I think the odds that he has another great first half like he did in 2016 are less than 30%, given he's had a great half 2 out of his last 6, AND he's 40 now.......so odds going down for greatness.... ;)