I decided that I would take the five starting pitchers from each season with the most games started. While there might be a pitcher with more innings pitched, I figured for the sake of this exercise, games started would be a good way to organize the pitchers. From here on out, I will refer to these starting pitchers each season as the "starting five". The next section contains each season’s starting five in descending order of GS. Listed next to each year is the number of games started by all five pitchers combined. For example, last year’s starting five started 125 out of a possible 162 games. Next to each individual’s name is their respective bWAR for that season, and at the bottom is the total of all five pitcher’s bWAR’s. If you feel like saying tl;dr, you can skip down and there are some tid bits of interest afterwards, with some reflections and toughts.
2015: 125 starts
Rubby De La Rosa: - 0.0 bWAR
Chase Anderson: 0.8 bWAR
Jeremy Hellickson: 0.0 bWAR
Robbie Ray: 1.7 bWAR
Patrick Corbin: 1.3 bWAR
TOTAL: 3.8 bWAR
2014: 117 starts
Wade Miley: 0.8 bWAR
Josh Collmenter: 2.4 bWAR
Chase Anderson: 0.8 bWAR
Brandon McCarthy: - 0.5 bWAR
Trevor Cahill: - 1.5 bWAR
TOTAL: 2.0 bWAR
2013: 133 starts
Wade Miley: 1.3 bWAR
Patrick Corbin: 2.8 bWAR
Trevor Cahill: 0.7 bWAR
Brandon McCarthy: - 0.2 bWAR
Ian Kennedy: - 2.5 bWAR
TOTAL: 2.1 bWAR
2012: 132 starts
Ian Kennedy: 2.3 bWAR
Trevor Cahill: 2.6 bWAR
Wade Miley: 3.5 bWAR
Joe Saunders: 0.7 bWAR
Patrick Corbin: 0.7 bWAR
TOTAL: 9.8 bWAR
2011: 132 starts
Daniel Hudson: 1.5 bWAR
Ian Kennedy: 4.8 bWAR
Joe Saunders: 1.5 bWAR
Josh Collmenter: 1.9 bWAR
Zach Duke: - 0.3 bWAR
TOTAL: 9.4 bWAR
2010: 124 starts
Rodrigo Lopez: - 0.7 bWAR
Ian Kennedy: 2.9 bWAR
Dan Haren: 0.6 bWAR
Edwin Jackson: 0.1 bWAR
Barry Enright: 1.5 bWAR
TOTAL: 4.4 bWAR
2009: 141 starts
Doug Davis: 2.4 bWAR
Dan Haren: 6.5 bWAR
Max Scherzer: 1.3 bWAR
Jon Garland: 1.3 bWAR
Yusmeiro Petit: - 0.5 bWAR
TOTAL: 11.0 bWAR
2008: 141 starts
Brandon Webb: 5.8 bWAR
Dan Haren: 6.1 bWAR
Randy Johnson: 3.2 bWAR
Doug Davis: 2.4 bWAR
Micah Owings: - 0.4 bWAR
TOTAL: 17.1 bWAR
2007: 139 starts
Brandon Webb: 6.4 bWAR
Doug Davis: 2.5 bWAR
Livan Hernandez: 1.4 bWAR
Micah Owings: 1.6 bWAR
Edgar Gonzalez: 0.2 bWAR
TOTAL: 12.1 bWAR
2006: 129 starts
Brandon Webb: 7.0 bWAR
Miguel Batista: 2.3 bWAR
Claudio Vargas: 1.1 bWAR
Enrique Gonzalez: 0.0 bWAR
Juan Cruz: 1.7 bWAR
TOTAL: 12.1 bWAR
2005: 135 starts
Brandon Webb: 5.0 bWAR
Javier Vazquez: 2.1 bWAR
Brad Halsey: - 0.1 bWAR
Russ Ortiz: - 1.7 bWAR
Shawn Estes: 0.9 bWAR
TOTAL: 6.2 bWAR
2004: 125 starts
Randy Johnson: 8.5 bWAR
Brandon Webb: 3.2 bWAR
Casey Fossum: - 1.4 bWAR
Steve Sparks: -0.7 bWAR
Casey Daigle: -0.6 bWAR
TOTAL: 9.0 bWAR
2003: 129 starts
Elmer Dessens – 1.2 bWAR
Miguel Batista – 4.3 bWAR
Brandon Webb – 6.2 bWAR
Curt Schilling – 6.0 bWAR
Randy Johnson – 1.6 bWAR
TOTAL 19.3 bWAR
2002: 153 starts
Randy Johnson: 10.9 bWAR
Curt Schilling: 8.7 bWAR
Rick Helling: 2.0 bWAR
Miguel Batista: 2.1 bWAR
Brian Anderson: 1.8 bWAR
TOTAL: 25.2 bWAR
2001: 126 starts
Curt Schilling: 8.8 bWAR
Randy Johnson: 10.0 bWAR
Brian Anderson: - 0.9 bWAR
Miguel Batista: 2.9 bWAR
Robert Ellis: - 0.3 bWAR
TOTAL: 20.5 bWAR
2000: 131 starts
Randy Johnson: 8.1 bWAR
Brian Anderson: 4.1 bWAR
Armando Reynoso: 1.4 bWAR
Todd Stottlemyre: 0.6 bWAR
Omar Daal: - 2.0 bWAR
TOTAL: 12.2 bWAR
1999: 145 starts
Randy Johnson: 9.2 bWAR
Andy Benes: 0.9 bWAR
Omar Daal: 4.7 bWAR
Armando Reynoso: 1.6 bWAR
Brian Anderson: 1.3 bWAR
TOTAL: 17.7 bWAR
1998: 130 starts
Andy Benes: 3.1 bWAR
Brian Anderson: 1.5 bWAR
Willie Blair: - 0.2 bWAR
Omar Daal: 4.2 bWAR
Amaury Telemaco: 0.9 bWAR
TOTAL: 9.5 bWAR
TOTAL bWAR: 203.4
The first thing that I noticed when setting up this data, was how bad our pitching has been the last three years. In fact, when analyzing pitchers using this method, we see that the worst three years out of all eighteen by total bWAR are 2015, 2014, and 2013, with 2014 being the worst of all (unsurprisingly). The front office has gone out and signed Zack Greinke and then traded for Shelby Miller who were worth 9.3 and 3.6 bWAR last year respectively. If we replace our two worst starters with Greinke and Miller with last year’s numbers, we would have had a starting five total bWAR of 16.7 bWAR. This total would have been good for sixth best in Dbacks’ history behind 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2008. However, we all know that it is not as simple as just adding last year’s totals for projections this year.
With all of the recent projections that have come out, it looks like most people are pegging Greinke with being worth around 5 WAR this year, with Miller coming around three. Three for Miller is already historically probable, so that much is acceptable. However, some people might be saying "Greinke was worth 9.3 bWAR last year, why would he only be worth 5 next year"? The answer is actually pretty simple. Greinke’s 2015 was epic… In fact, in his 12 major league seasons, he has only exceeded 4.3 bWAR three times. THREE! Don’t get me wrong, I am extremely excited to have Greinke and I think that he will do very well here. But with those three seasons being worth 10.4, 9.3, and 5.3 bWAR, it is easy to see that there are two outlier seasons on his resume. But even if he is "only" worth 5 bWAR this coming year, we could still be in line for over 15 total bWAR from our starting five in 2016.
Now, here is where things get kind of interesting. If we compare Randy Johnson’s first 12 years in the big leagues with Greinke’s, we see some scary similarities. Through Randy’s first 12 seasons, he had a total of 43.5 bWAR, compared to Greinke’s 48.6. Randy was three years older when starting his 13th season, but also got a major contract from the Arizona Diamondbacks. I’m not guaranteeing that Greinke will become the next Randy Johnson, but the track records are similar. Both even won one Cy Young before coming here. If Greinke can provide us with even half of what Johnson gave us, I think that we will be in really, really good shape. Speaking of Johnson, another thing of interest here is the fact that of the 90 individual seasons listed above, Randy had seven of them. Despite only having seven of the 90 aforementioned seasons, Johnson contributed over 25% of the total bWAR! And to further demonstrate how much of our pitching history is tied up in only a few players, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, and Brandon Webb combined to contribute 53.4% of our total bWAR for all starting fives, and in only 16 out of 90 individual seasons to boot!
What are your thoughts about how well our pitching staff will be in 2016?
