The La Russa Heartbreakometer
|Justin Ruggiano - LF||A.J. Pollock - CF|
|Jose Peraza - 2B||Ender Inciarte - RF|
|Justin Turner - 3B||Paul Goldschmidt - 1B|
|Adrian Gonzalez - 1B||David Peralta - LF|
|Scott Van Slyke - RF||Jarrod Saltalamacchia - C|
|Corey Seager - SS||Jake Lamb - 3B|
|A.J. Ellis - C||Chris Owings - 2B|
|Joc Pederson - CF||Nick Ahmed - SS|
|Zack Greinke - RHP||Patrick Corbin - LHP|
Have yourself a season, Mr. Greinke. Even I have to admit that, begrudgingly, since Greinke is well up my list of most-despised Dodgers [which would also be my list of most-despised MLB players, not coincidentally]. His current ERA is the lowest by any qualifying pitcher in the past 20 years, since Greg Maddux returned a 1.56 for the 1994 Braves. Although it has to be said, Greinke has also been pretty fortunate, with a BABIP of .236 which is unsustainably low. If that were to regress for the next six hours, I'd appreciate it. As a result, his FIP is more than a run higher, at 2.72 (that gap is the 4th highest among those 84 qualifiers), and his xFIP even larger, at 3.25.
Still, nether of those figures exactly make him a pushover, and the Dodgers are 11-2 over his past 13 starts Perhaps even more remarkably, in the eight overall losses for LA when Greinke is on the mound, they have scored a total of 12 runs, and never more than three. So those are certainly more on the offense than the pitcher, who put up an ERA of 1.88 in those eight losses. Our best hope for victory may well be for Patrick Corbin to pitch like the ace we know he can, keep the scores level and turn this into a battle of the bullpens. And given the unreliable nature of our 'pen, I'm not exactly feeling optimistic about this tactic.
On the other hand, our bullpen should at least be fresher, since the Dodgers have yet to see a starter complete four innings in this series: Wood was thrashed on Friday, and Bolsinger took a quick shower after the D-backs got the tying run to the plate in the fourth. We'll see. And, of course, it's SnakePitFest, so I'll be heading up the road to the Rose & Crown shortly, to meet the asteroids and others. Might make for a bit of a quiet Gameday Thread, especially given Chase Field's notoriously unreliable wifi! Be aware, therefore, that the quick recap may not be quick, and that the full recap will likely be late... But as long as it's a win, I'll be happy!