clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Place Your Bets on the 2015 Diamondbacks: Half-way

New, comments

Half-way in, and we can now close the books confidently on several of the pre-season wagers.

Sarah Crabill/Getty Images

In case you missed it, before the season began, we presented you with a list of 10 predictions e.g. team wins for the 2015 season, and gave you $1,500 SnakePit dollars to be on the outcomes by choosing whether the actual line in question would be over or under the projected number. You could wager no more than $500 on any one bet, so had to do at least three. 26 brave souls entered the SnakePit Casino this year; how many will leave without the shirts on their backs, and how many will exit being driven by a chauffeur in their new limo?

Below is a section for each bet. The format is the same for each. We have the original projection, the total amount wagered on being over and under the line, the projection for the end of the season based on current numbers and whether that will be over or under the expected line. There are a couple of categories where there's no meaningful projection available, as noted. Stats are mostly through 81 games, except for Peralta's OPS, which is through 83 because I couldn't figure out how to backdate it!

Wins: 72.5 (3385/3400) - 80, OVER

Put another way, the team needs to go just 33-48 in the second half, and 31-47 now, to make this one finish over the line. The latter is pretty close to the pace they had overall last season, so I'm feeling good the 2015 Diamondbacks will, at least moderately, exceed expectations. It's worth noting how much of the improvement took place early on. Through 31 games, we were five ahead of last year's wretched pace; the next fifty contests however, have added on only another two games, as we've gone 26-24 compared to 24-26 in 2014. The gap may not broaden much through the end of July, but we should surge ahead in August and September, where we were 16-37 last season.

Archie Bradley starts: 9.5 (2194/1300) - 16, OVER

Ah, so close... But what seemed like a sure thing after the first month, now looks on much thinner ice, even if Archie now needs just two more starts in the majors to cross the line. The lack of prognosis from his visit to Jimmy the Knife is both encouraging and disturbing: the true cause for the pain and velocity dropped suffered by Archie remains undetermined, as does any solution. Is it purely psychological, related to the line-drive off his cheek? Who knows. As I wrote in the first review, "You're never more than one freak incident away from major disaster...there are still some shoals to negotiate before cashing this one in." That is looking eerily prescient.

Yoan Lopez starts: 4.5 (500/4827) - 0, UNDER

Blisters detailed Lopez, just when it seemed he was getting going with the Double-A Mobile BayBears. He missed a month in May/June, and the first start after Yoan's return didn't go to well. as he took the loss and allowed five earned runs in 3.2 innings. Even with some of those who were ahead of him in spring e.g. Cahill, Arroyo, no longer in the way, it seems doubtful he will be able re-establish himself well enough to get more than a token call-up once rosters expand in September, and even that is far from certain at this point.

All-Stars other than Paul Goldschmidt: 0.5 (1200/2400 - 1, OVER [CLOSED]

DINGDINGDING! Courtesy of A.J. Pollock - not someone on most people's radars as a potential All-Star when the season began - we will indeed have someone else apart from Goldie repping the team in the upcoming festivities. That goes against the pre-season betting, when the money went on Goldschmidt flying solo by a margin of 2:1. Again, this is likely an indicator that the team has out-performed expectations, though more on an individual level here. You could even argue that Brad Ziegler was unjustly overlooked for a spot, but regardless, we close this book on this one as over the line.

Combined HR for Goldschmidt, Yasmany Tomas and Mark Trumbo: 70.5 (2080/1950) - 68, UNDER

That's 20 for Goldie, ten for Trumbo (nine here, plus one with Seattle - the line did not specify anything about a particular team) and four for Tomas, his fifth having come in game #82. This has slid from above to below the line since we checked in at the end of April, mostly because Goldie's pace has slowed a bit. He has one home-run since June 17 - though in part that's simply because he has been pitched around a lot, with 15 walks in 82 PA since then, coming into last night's contest. Still, Tomas has helped pick up some of the slack, even if Trumbo, at recent pace, could end with fewer home-runs this season than Welington Castillo.

Tomas' finish in Rookie of the Year voting: 4.5 (3000/731) - TBA

This one's gonna be interesting. Among rookies with 200+ PAs going into yesterday, Yasmany's OPS is fourth, behind Joc Pedersen (obvs), Kris Bryant (obvs) and something called a Maikel Franco, about which I know nothing. However, his bWAR ranks only 10th; by that metric, Nick Ahmed has a better shot (2.1, behind Pederson, Bryant and Matt Duffy). On the other hand, his figure is likely impacted by Tomas playing third-base, hardly his natural position, while Jake Lamb was out of action; should he be penalized for that? It's going to make for a good race in the second-half, and may not be decided until the end.

Number of different starting catchers used: 4.5 (1150/2986) - 5, OVER [CLOSED]

The one game started by Gerald Laird is currently proving the difference maker, though even without him, this would still seem very likely to be over, due to Oscar Hernandez's presence on the roster. Not that you'd have noticed it so far, and I think the odds are about 50/50 whether he'll start a game for us between now and the end of the season... As well as Laird's solitary start, we have seen Jordan Pacheco (13 games), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (15), Welington Castillo (20) and Tuffy Gosewisch (34). I am hoping the second half of the season will be more stable, but having seen our primary, backup and tertiary catchers all taken out by injury in the first half, I wouldn't bet on it.

David Peralta's OPS+: 104.5 (1000/701) - 119, OVER

After a shaky spell in early May (his OPS was .666 from May 1-26), Peralta has come around, and in particular has been doing a much better job of handling left-handed pitching. Last year, he struggled, with an OPS against southpaws of only .510, with no home-runs and only four extra-base hits in 81 PA. This year, while still looking for that first career homer off a leftie, he has already more XBH (5) in only 48 PA, and has a .752 OPS. His overall OPS of .811 is currently second only to Goldie on the team, among hitters with 150+ PA this year [Jake Lamb may get there in due course] That kind of development is what will keep him gainfully employed.

Date of Patrick Corbin's season debut: June 1 (4335/100) - July 4 OVER [CLOSED]

Take this one to the bank, and a lot of people did so, cashing in on an overly optimistic return date, which turned out to be almost five weeks too early. It does seem to have been the approach by the Diamondbacks with all their TJ rehabbers; err very much on the side of caution, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. If giving them an extra month before they take the mound in earnest, helps the longer-term picture of pitchers returning to full health and pre-surgery form, then I am perfectly fine with it. It's not as if a month of Corbin is probably going to represent the difference in Arizona making the post-season. Though the way we've been playing of late...

Date of Aaron Hill trade: July 1 (1560-100) - OVER [CLOSED]

Well, he's still here. After a wretched April, with a .446 OPS, Hill has hit better, and his OPS is now up into the low six hundreds. I can only presume that trying to fatten his numbers up against left-handed pitching, with the view to a trade, is part of why Jake Lamb hasn't seen many lefties to date. Hill is the only man left on the current Diamondbacks roster earning more than $5.5 million, and is being paid more than double that, both this season and next. A trade seems inevitable, even if we end up having to eat a good chunk of salary; I think it's either that or we just DFA and end up eating the lot. Guess we'll see in the coming weeks.