Game #21 Preview: 4/29, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies

Jordan Lyles RHP, 2-1, 2.92

Josh Collmenter RHP, 1-3, 3.65

Charlie Blackmon - CF	Ender Inciarte - CF
Corey Dickerson - LF	Chris Owings - 2B
Troy Tulowitzki - SS	Paul Goldschmidt - 1B
Justin Morneau - 1B	Mark Trumbo - RF
Nolan Arenado - 3B	David Peralta - LF
Carlos Gonzalez - RF	Yasmany Tomas - 3B
Nick Hundley - C	Jordan Pacheco - C
Daniel Descalso - 2B	Nick Ahmed - SS
Jordan Lyles - RHP	Josh Collmenter - RHP

Last night was a literal roller-coaster of emotions, wasn't it? First, we teed off on the Rockies' starter; then we lost our own pitcher to a horrific injury; and finally, we poured on the offense in the later innings, to reach double-digit runs for the first time in 34 contests, dating back to September 13 last year. After the famine we experienced against the Pirates over the weekend, this was truly an all-you-can-eat buffet of scoring. Will it carry forward to this evening? Does momentum from a victory like that. help the offense in the game which follows, or is it the case (as we sometimes say) we should have "saved some runs" for the next night?

I'd have to do a full study, but I did take a look at what happened with Arizona last year. Looking the games following the ones we put up 10 or more runs, we scored 38 times in eight contests, a 4.75 average, almost a run better than our 3.80 mean for the whole season. However, that average is heavily skewed by back to back games at Coors Field, where we put up 16 and 12 runs (while conceding eight and seven!). Take this out, and the average of the remaining seven contests drops to 3.71, very close to our average. And conversely, when we conceded 10+, which happened six times, the average in the next game was only 3.33, well below the season average of 4.58.

I certainly suspect that Lyles will be harder to score off than Kendrick was, based on performances so far. It'd help if we can keep Colorado off the board in the first: so far, we've allowed 16 first-inning runs, which is tied for the most with the ninth (hello, Addison Reed?). We've actually scored quite a few there ourselves: 11, though our biggest inning has been the third, when we've brought 15 runs across the plate; that's probably when the top of our order has generally come up to bat for the second time. But regardless of the score, based on results so far, you might as well give up after the sixth. For we are 8-0 when leading at that point, and 0-8 when trailing....