For each line, we give the original projection, the amount wagered over and under, and the current pace, assuming we continue at the same rate going forward.
Wins: 84.5 (3350-4562) - Pace 66, UNDER
This is three games better than it was when we last checked. If we maintain that pace, we should be getting close to the line by the end of the 2015 season. :) However, don't be under any illusions: the improvement is mostly because we were so terrible early on. The last stretch has been pretty bumpy for the D-backs, going 12-15, and currently sitting a season-high 15 games below .500. Just to reach .500, we now need to go 48-33 the rest of the way, effectively playing like a 96-win team for the remainder of the season. Yeah, I'm not feeling it. Our worst record since Towers took over seems all but assured. Even playing .500 ball would leave us close to 90 losses.
Place in NL West: 2.5 (2164-1700) - Pace 5, OVER
No change here - we're still last, despite several chances to overtake San Diego. But what we are seeing is an increasing gap between the haves (Dodgers and Giants) and have nots (Padres, Rockies and us), mostly caused by Colorado being absolute crap. They were half a game back of the Dodgers and apparently deluding their fans into believing the West was a three-horse race. Since them? Only one team in the majors has won fewer than nine games, the 7-19 Rockies. They're still in third, but are now twice as far from second place (eight games back) as last (3.5 games up)
Paul Goldschmidt's home runs: 35.5 (1100-4073) - Pace 30, UNDER
Six more home-runs for Goldie, not really narrowing the gap, but not letting it grow any larger. However, he didn't hit a single bomb during this nine-game home-stand, and seemed to be struggling over that time, hitting only .226 despite a BABIP of .389, He's taking plenty of walks, which is good to see: since June 8, he has 18 of those, compared to 19 strikeouts, but they don't factor into this line. We need DINGERZ! though I can't say I mind too much Goldschmidt's decision not to take part in the Home-run Derby. Nothing good can truly come of that event. Except, of course, the opportunity to boo Prince Fielder.
Mark Trumbo's home runs: 37.5 (1200-4136) - Pace 14, UNDER
It has now been 59 games since Trumbo played at all, and we won't be seeing him for a while, despite Mark being pretty gung-ho and saying last week, "I'm ready to go," in reference to the necessary minor-league rehab assignment. The team's opinion seems rather different, and much more cautious, and he certainly won't be back until after the All-Star break. Which is after our 93rd game this season, meaning Trumbo will probably be missing close to half the entire campaign. Hopefully, his return from injury will go a little better than Cody Ross's did, though Ross is hitting .324 for June.
Brandon McCarthy's innings pitched: 144 (1452-1350) - Pace 194, OVER
Touch wood, it looks like McCarthy is going to make it without injury through the treacherous shoals which have been the month of June in previous seasons. He needs only to pitch more than 47 innings the rest of the way to make this one a lock, and if he remains healthy, about the only thing that would stop him is a Cahill-esque demotion to the minors, which I can't see happening. More likely might be a deadline trade, but I don't recall anywhere saying the line is limited to innings pitched for the Diamondbacks, so I'm inclined to let this one run, regardless of which jersey he might be pulling on.
Bronson Arroyo's home runs allowed: 31.5 (100-4847) - Pace 20, UNDER
Conversely, rather than a line looking increasingly likely to be decided by a lack of injury, this is one where health has lobbed an unexpected spanner into the mechanism, Arroyo "enjoying" the unprecedented experience of time on the DL. Still., it's not all down to that, since Arroyo's rate of 1.0 per nine innings, is the lowest he has posted since 2005. Concerns about him pitching in Chase have also been unfounded to date, with just three home-runs allowed at home, in 46 innings of work here. Meaningless trivia: right now, he has thrown exactly the same number of innings and given up exactly the same number of long balls, as Josh Collmenter.
Archie Bradley's starts at MLB level: 12.5 (2200-716) - Pace 0, UNDER
The clock is ticking. Bradley is still rehabbing, but is now on his way back to Double-A Mobile, and one imagines he will work there for some time before there can even be any consideration of moving him to the big leagues. Quite where he sits on our depth chart is hard to say, though there is still time for him to reach the line, up until late July. We should get Bronson Arroyo back, and that'll be the end of Mike Bolsinger, but one wonders whether priority will be given to getting Trevor Cahill back in the rotation, and seeing if he has been "fixed," rather than Bradley getting to make his debut? We should know more by the end of the fourth lap, next month.
Martin Prado's OPS: .770 (4300-136) - Pace .690, UNDER
Still going the right direction, though Prado has cooled off considerably since his OPS reached a season high mark of .716 on June 7, after game #64, hitting below the Uecker Line (.197) with a .585 OPS. His OPS in this stretch overall has been a fairly respectable .745, though in terms of value, worth noting he had almost as many double-plays (7) as extra-base hits (8). It continues to be Prado's lack of power which is the main culprit; he's going to step up the pace in the second-half or he'll have his first season with single-digit homers since he was a 24-year-old in 2008.
Bench-clearing incidents with Dodgers: 0.5 (2866-250) - Pace 0, UNDER
Maybe we should have made this the Brewers instead? Because after the events of last week, it would perhaps seem more likely we'll have a brawl with them than the Dodgers this season. Except, we won't actually be playing the Brewers again this season, so forget I said anything. We won't know for a while, as the next time we face Los Angeles isn't until the 26-27th of August, for a two-game set here. There's then a three-game series there, about ten days later, but this is looking increasingly like water under the bridge.
Np change in any of the lines this month, and that's fine for me, as I don't have to update my spreadsheet, and can simply copy/paste the standings from last month! Will things change by game #108? Tune in at the end of July to find out...
|Dallas D'Back Fan||1500|
|Craig from Az||500|
|AF DBacks Fanatic||-500|
We'll be back at the half-way point, which looks likely to be four weeks from today, the off-day after game #81.