After last night's curb-stomping, the Dodgers' magic number to make the playoffs sits at 8. In other words, any combination of 8 Dodgers wins or Diamondbacks losses will result in the NL West division going to Los Angeles. With 19 games left over all, it's fair to say that the Diamondbacks are standing on the razor's edge.
There's not a lot of point in hashing out the scenarios in which the Diamondbacks would win the division, as they're so dire to be extremely unlikely. No, instead we need to start preparing ourselves for the possibility that the Dodgers will celebrate before our very eyes, as they visit Chase Field in a week.
Best case scenario for the Dodgers would mean clinching on Saturday. This would happen only in the event they win out the week, while the Diamondbacks lose out (or lose out and neither win nor lose on Saturday, at that point their destiny is out of their hands).
Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks will be hosting the Dodgers Monday through Wednesday next week. So what would it take for the Snakes to avoid this disaster?
With 9 games during this time frame, the Diamondbacks don't have a ton of room to move. And 6 of those remaining are against Los Angeles. Winning this current series and tying the next would slow the Dodgers a bit and put the magic number at 6. But what about the weekend series?
The Diamondbacks play 3 games against the Rockies, a team they should be able to take 2 games from. Unfortunately, the Dodgers play the Giants for 4 games, and should be able to take at least 3. Assuming LA takes 3, that puts their theoretical record over the next 9 at 5-5. Consequently, the Diamondbacks would have to go 7-2.
The only way for that scenario to work is for the Diamondbacks to sweep the Rockies. Even one game dropped means the Dodgers will celebrate at Chase, and this already with a very generous assumption that the D-backs will win the next two games, and take 2 out of 4 next week.
Of course, it also very possible the Dodgers celebrate in San Francisco, which has interesting, hypocritical schadenfreude possibilities. If the D-backs do win this current series, then the Dodgers can't celebrate at AT&T Park. But even if the Dodgers do win the next two games, it would take a 4 game sweep in San Francisco, and the D-backs to lose 2 of 3 against Colorado.
Unfortunately, the math doesn't really work in our favor. The schedule is at a perfect moment where it seems completely unavoidable. We're going to see the Dodgers celebrate at Chase Field.
Does it really matter that the Dodgers are likely to celebrate on our team's field? Probably not, though I'm sure there's some Arizona local Dodgers fans that will be completely insufferable about it. I still don't want to see it happen, because I'm a selfish person. But I'm also deeply pessimistic, so I'm guessing the Chase Field clubhouse attendants better start icing some champaign.