SnakeLines, Week 19: TOOTBLAN!

Week 18 review

So close, and yet... After wins for Delgado and Miley, the line came into the fifth game sitting at the push, with two W's for our starters this week. The unders had already lost, but a second Delgado victory would tip the line over, and make winners of the two brave souls who predicted that. With half the wagers having gone for 'push', the house was obviously hoping for a Randall W. Things looked bleak as the Rays scored three in the first, but the offense fought back and Delgado left after the bare minimum five innings to qualify, in line for the win with a 7-4 advantage. However, enter the D-backs bullpen, and a four-run seventh blew the lead, tagging the starter with a no-decision.

That completed the week with the actual tally set at two, exactly as the line projected. In Vegas, that would mean everyone would get their money back, but the generous house here pays out double, for those who saw it coming and wagered on the "push". Quite a short roster this week, probably because of the relatively brief window between posting and first-pitch last Friday. No excuses this time, with almost a day and a half before this week's round gets under way.

• Winners (5): blank_38, Gildo, GuruB, preston.salisbury, xmet
  
• Sinners (5): Angry_Saguaro, azcougs, AzRattler, piratedan7, walleye01
  

Standings

• 12 points
  blank_38
• 9 points
  AJV19
  Gildo
  grimmy01
• 8 points
  
• 7 points
  GuruB
  JoelPre
  SenSurround
  TolkienBard
  
• 6 points
  AzRattler
  piratedan7
  walleye01
  xmet
• 5 points
  Angry_Saguaro
  rd33
  
• 4 points
  azshadowwalker
  Craig from Az
  frienetic
  Marc Fournier
  
• 3 points
  azcougs
  AzDbackfanInDc
  BigLeagueAZ
  FlannelFlapjacks
  imstillhungry95
  preston.salisbury
  
• 2 points
  bozzy35
  BrokeNBattleX
  eel
  Maizefed
  Songbird
  TimInTucson
  
• 1 point
  AZfan85308
  babakolo
  backtocali
  benhat
  BobRob12
  catbat
  LiamNeeson
  Muu
  navyazfan
  porty99
  Shawnwck
  Xipooo
  
• 0 points
  azsportsfan31
  BattleMoses
  Daniel Corbin Jr.
  Diamondhacks
  hotclaws
  leemellon
  littleRoom
  PatrickPetersonAZ
  since_98
  Stumpy657
  Surksquatch
  

Week 19 line

This one is going to be a little bit different, because there is no easily-measured metric for this. As you're probably aware, TOOTBLAN stands for Thrown-Out on the Basepaths Like A Nincompoop, and is a generic catch-all for blunders on the bags. It has been a subject of some concern this season, with the desired improvement on a disappointing 2012 performance in this area, not coming through. Instead, our stolen-base rate, already below average at 65% last season, has dropped further, to 58%. And even beyond that, only the Brewers have had more runners thrown out at home.

We'll be writing more about that tonight, actually, as I'm working on an article analyzing our performance on the bags. But for the purpose of this report, TOOTBLANs are loosely defined as any voluntary advance by a runner, which results in an out. This will include pickoffs, being caught stealing, doubled off on a line-drive, failed sacrifice fly attempts, getting thrown out going first to third on a single, etc. Over-sliding a base also counts. The house's assessment of what constitutes a TOOTBLAN will be final, but I will listen to appeals in the Gameday Thread. I'll try to remember and maintain a running tally in the previews, but no guarantees....

This will cover six games, the three-game series against the Mets this weekend, followed by the three-game set versus the Orioles from Monday through Wednesday. Not sure there's much significance in the opposition: I suppose we might have more people on base than usual against the Mets, hence slightly more chance to TOOTBLAN, but not sure it'll be significant. You want some numbers? Here are the TOOTBLANS for the Arizona season so far:

• Caught stealing: 29
• Pickoffs: 6 (excluding pick-offs caught stealing)
• Outs on base-paths: 35

Diamondbacks TOOTBLAN: 3½

Usual rules. Over or under in the comments, by first pitch Friday at Chase Field (6:40pm). Get it right, and get a point: I'll update the results and standings next Thursday which is another convenient off-day.