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Preview: Game #62, Diamondbacks vs. Giants

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Well, that was fun, wasn't it? Let's do it again - though if we can perhaps score some runs before the eighth inning, I wouldn't complain...

Suck it, Buster. Suck it long, and suck it hard...
Suck it, Buster. Suck it long, and suck it hard...
Jennifer Stewart

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Madison Bumgarner
LHP, 4-4, 3.46
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Trevor Cahill
RHP, 3-6, 3.27

Diamondbacks Line-up

  1. Willie Bloomquist, 2B
  2. A.J. Pollock, CF
  3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
  4. Cody Ross, LF
  5. Miguel Montero, C
  6. Martin Prado, 3B
  7. Gerardo Parra, RF
  8. Didi Gregorius, SS
  9. Trevor Cahill, P

So, same eight starting position players as yesterday - just arranged into a radially different order. On a quick eye-ball, I think Goldschmidt at #3 might be the only person who occupies the same slot. Kinda understandable, given we only managed five hits yesterday, and were potentially the GoldBomb away from losing our shutout streak, but I'm not sure that shuffling the same cards around and playing them in a different order is really going to do much. Still: 2.5 games up in first place means we pretty much have to give Gibson the benefit of the doubt as far as line-up construction goes to this point. #GibbyBall.

For amusement, after Goldzilla's eighth-inning exploits last night, here are the five biggest plays of the season, in terms of Win Probability added. As you can see, it blows away the competition over the first 61 games this year, with almost twenty points over it's neared competitor, Kubel's bases-loaded double in the seventh inning against the Cubs earlier this month.

Date Batter Opp Pitcher Score Inn Out Cnt RBI WPA Play Description
06-07 Goldschmidt SFG Affeldt down 1-0 b8 2 2-0 3 66% Home Run; Pollock Scores; Bloomquist Scores
06-01 Kubel @CHC Russell down 3-1 t7 2 1-2 3 47% Double to LF; Gregorius Scores; Goldschmidt Scores; Prado Scores
05-07 Goldschmidt @LAD League tied 3-3 t9 1 3-2 2 43% Home Run; Parra Scores
05-27 Gregorius TEX Darvish down 4-2 b8 1 2-0 2 40% Home Run; Nieves Scores
04-24 Parra @SFG Mijares tied 1-1 t9 2 0-0 1 38% Single to SS; Gregorius Scores; Pennington to 3B

That's why, all told, Goldschmidt is destroying the competition in terms of Win Probability Added this year. On Fangraphs, he's at +367%, more than two and a half wins better than the next Diamondback, Gregorius, who is at +108%. It's also 30 points more than the second-placed in all baseball, the Orioles' Chris Davis. It's not surprising, given how well Goldzilla has been hitting in general, and in particular his insane figures with runners in scoring position. Paul's line there is now .439/.478/.930, an OPS of 1.407. While it'd be unrealistic to expect that to continue, I'd settle for it lasting a couple more days.