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SnakeLines, Week 9: Homer Happy?

With one game less than expected, the Diamondbacks pitchers had their work cut out for them to reach the strikeout line expected this week. Did they manage it? And will the hitters do any better this round?

By Jim McLennan

Week 8 review

Date Opp Rslt IP H R ER BB SO HR
May 24 SDP W,5-2 9.0 8 2 2 3 3 1
May 25 SDP L,4-10 9.0 12 10 8 3 3 1
May 26 SDP W,6-5 9.0 9 5 4 2 6 1
May 27 (1) TEX W,5-3 9.0 9 3 3 5 15 0
May 27 (2) TEX W,5-4 9.0 8 4 3 3 4 0
May 30 TEX L,5-9 8.0 15 9 9 2 4 2

This week's lesson. Just because there are seven games scheduled to be played, doesn't mean that there will actually be seven games played. Unforeseen circumstances, like rain-outs and players getting injured are thing which are definitely borne in mind by the sports books when they set their lines, so you'd do well to bear them in mind when placing your best. Not that it probably made too much difference this week. As you'll recall, the line was based on the number of strikeouts recorded by the Diamondbacks pitchers over the (theoretical) seven games, and was set at 49 1/2.

Things didn't exactly look promising after the Padres series, where only 12 K's were recorded over the three games, but Arizona's hurlers really got the job done in the day game of the Memorial Day double-header. Led by Tyler Skaggs, they fanned a season-high 15, get right back on track. However, the night-cap proved a lot less K-worthy, and after the rain-out yesterday, this afternoon's contest was no better. In fact, Brandon McCarthy became only the second Diamondback starter in over 380 regular-season games since late 2010, not to record a strikeout [the other being Patrick Corbin, against the Giants on Sep 27 last year]

The final tally came in at 35, so it's probably unlikely that the postponed game made any significant difference, short of another season-high whiff tally. But perhaps interesting to note that (with an obvious nod to small sample size), in the four games the team won, the average K's per game were double that recorded when we lost. Hmm. Maybe should dig into that some more, see if there's any deeper correlation - either on the hitting or pitching sides. Anyway, this week, the line appears to have been dropped at close to the right spot, with almost half the 20 entrants picking above and half below. Here's how the results break down.

  • Winners (11): Angry_Saguaro, azcougs, AzDbackfanInDc, BigLeagueAZ, blank_38, grimmy01, JoelPre, Marc Fournier, SongBird, TolkienBard, walleye01
  • Sinners (9): AJV19, BrokeNBattleX, AzRattler, Craig from Az, Gildo, imstillhungry95, piratedan7, rd33, SenSurround,

Standings

  • 6 points
    blank_38
  • 5 points
    grimmy01
  • 4 points
     AJV19
    frienetic
    Gildo
    Marc Fournier
    SenSurround
  • 3 points
    AzRattler
    Craig from Az
    piratedan7
    TolkienBard
  • 2 points
    azshadowwalker
    eel
    GuruB
    JoelPre
    Maizefed
    rd33
    Songbird
    walleye01
  • 1 point
    Angry_Saguaro
    azcougs
    AzDbackfanInDc
    AZfan85308
    backtocali
    BigLeagueAZ
    BobRob12
    BrokeNBattleX
    navyazfan
    Shawnwck
  • 0 points
    azsportsfan31
    BattleMoses
    Daniel Corbin Jr.
    Diamondhacks
    hotclaws
    imstillhungry95
    leemellon
    LiamNeeson
    littleRoom
    Muu
    since_98
    Surksquatch
    Xipooo

Week 9 line

Let's get offensive this week. How many home-runs will the Diamondbacks hit over the next week? That covers the three games in Chicago and the four in St. Louis: the forecast for the first couple of days at Wrigley does look decidedly iffy, it has to be said, but one would hope they will try to squeeze in the contests around any storms. But the weather can certainly affect the results, something we often forget with our nice, domed, rain-proof home park. There was the infamous wind-blown game we played at Wrigley against the Cubs in 2006, where we hit six home-runs in the first seven innings of a 15-4 win. But the elements giveth, and the elements taketh away...

Here's the usual slew of numbers to confuse the hell out of you help you come to an informed decision.

  • Overall home-runs per game: 0.94
  • Road home-runs per game: 1.08
  • Home-runs last series in St. Louis: four (three games)
  • Home-runs last series in Chicago: two (three games)
  • Home-runs last seven games: four
  • Home-runs last seven road games: four

Diamondbacks Home-Runs: 7

Usual rules. Over, under or push (the last if you think they'll hit exactly seven) in the comments, by first pitch tomorrow in Chicago. Winner gets a point, unless "push" comes up, when you get two points.

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