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2013 Diamondbacks: ZIPS Total Team Projection

The ZIPS projections provided earlier were a little wonky in terms of total playing time. In the comments, shibum78 fiddled with them a bit, to come with a total team projection that could be compared to last year's numbers. Here's the prettified version of his post.

By shibum78
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

I changed a few things around based on playing time to make it all fit for next year. This is how I figured the playing time:

I looked at the median plate appearances and innings pitched for MLB teams. Kept the plate appearances and innings the same from ZIPS for all of the position players, except for Eaton because there isn’t that many plate appearances to go around. I made adjustments for the bench players. putting into consideration the plate appearances for the starters. I also do not have McDonald on here, because I think unless Willie completely stinks it up in spring training, we may look to trade McDonald. Well, that is unless we cut Chavez (unlikely due to his $3mil contract) or Hinske (not such a bad idea considering this roster).

For the pitchers,. I kept the innings the same from ZIPS except for Delgado. Also assumed that the main bullpen guys would hit their figures (Sipps, Reynolds, Ziegler, Bell, Collmenter minus starts, Putz, and Hernandez) and filled the rest of the innings with De La Rosa and Marshall, who I think have the best upside for the bullpen.

Hitters

Player PA BA OBP% SLG% OPS+ WAR
C Montero 506 .267 .354 .428 108 3.4
1st Goldschmidt 645 .259 .338 .467 113 2.3
2nd Hill 624 .271 .326 .444 104 3.2
SS Pennington 541 .258 .315 .380 85 1.9
3rd Prado 604 .293 .339 .434 105 3.3
LF Kubel 515 .260 .328 .485 114 1.6
CF Eaton 559 .275 .358 .389 100 2.2
RF Ross 517 .260 .321 .448 103 1.4
4th OF Parra 509 .273 .331 .400 95 1.4
Util Bloomquist 235 .265 .299 .353 74 -0.1
Util Chavez 202 .257 .312 .421 94 0.6
Bench bat Hinske 124 .230 .304 .410 89 0
Backup C Nieves 194 .233 .269 .312 55 -0.2

Last year, the Dbacks finished 6th in position player WAR amongst NL teams with 26.6. They are projected for 21 WAR this year, so losing 5½ wins. Some of that can be gained back by not being such a crappy, aggressive running team. If they do finish with 21 WAR, that would rank them 10th in position player WAR.

Starting Pitchers

Player Starts IP K/9 BB/9 K/BB ERA ERA+ WAR
SP1 Kennedy 32 201.1 7.96 2.50 3.18 3.71 112 4.3
SP2 Cahill 32 200.1 6.83 3.10 2.20 3.86 108 3.9
SP3 Miley 29 180.0 6.55 2.35 2.79 3.90 107 3.4
SP4 McCarthy 19 118.2 6.60 1.74 3.79 3.87 108 2.3
SP5 Corbin 29 176.2 7.13 2.60 2.74 3.97 98 2.6
SP6 Delgado 21 109.1 7.47 4.14 1.80 4.86 86 0.8

Last year, Dbacks finished 4th in starting pitching WAR with 15 WAR. They are projected for 17.3 WAR this year, which would improve them by 2 ½ wins. This would rank them 2nd in starting pitching.

Bullpen

Player Games IP K/9 BB/9 K/BB ERA ERA+ WAR
LR Collmenter 31 61.1 6.97 2.42 2.88 4.11 101 1
Lefty Sipp 66 57.0 9.47 4.11 2.30 4.11 101 0.5
BP Reynolds 70 58.1 8.95 2.78 3.22 3.86 108 0.7
BP Ziegler 66 58.0 6.52 3.10 2.10 3.57 117 0.9
BP Bell 62 58.2 8.28 3.37 2.46 3.84 108 0.7
SetUp Hernandez 68 65.2 11.51 3.56 3.23 3.02 138 1.4
Closer Putz 54 49.2 10.50 2.17 4.84 2.90 143 1.1
BP DeLaRosa 25 28.1 7.190 3.360 2.14 4.47 93 0.1
BP Marshall 20 21.2 4.990 3.530 1.41 4.98 83 -0.1

Last year, Dbacks finished 4th in bullpen WAR with 5.9 WAR. They are projected for 6.3 WAR this year, which would improve them by ½ win. This would rank them 3rd in bullpen.

Overall, the Dbacks finished 81-81 in 2012, but really played like a 86 win team. If the team plays out like the projections above, you’re probably looking at a 83 win team. However...

Adjustments

This is where I want to go over where I think the projections sell some of the players short:

  • C – Montero, they have him at 3.4 WAR and Nieves at -0.2 WAR. I think Montero will have more than 506 plate appearances (563/year last 2 years) and this is his age 28 season, so there shouldn’t be any drop in production. If we just average last 2 years, he would have 4.7 WAR and Nieves would have less plate appearances. This should add 1.4 WAR.
  • 2nd – Hill, they have him at 3.2 WAR, I think his hitting the last year was legit, but he will regress some b/c of his BABIP (last year his WAR was 6.2). I think he should be able to sustain 4.2 WAR, so this should add 1 WAR.
  • CF – Eaton, they have him at 2.2 WAR, and I think they’re being way too conservative on his on base skills, defense, and baserunning. I think he should conservatively 3.2 WAR, so that should add 1 WAR.

These 3 adjustments put the Dbacks at 86-87 wins. If we can get a full season of Brandon McCarthy and Daniel Hudson can contribute anything this year, that could even give us 2 more wins. Ultimately, I do think we have a legitimate 86-89 win team. I think this year, Dbacks fans will fall in love with Adam Eaton and along with the steady play of Prado, will help take some of the sting away from the great season Upton will have.

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