Already bored with Tanakamania, I thought I would take a look at the HOF Ballot using JAWS with a twist. The table below is based on the 2014 HOF Ballot Stats Page at BB-Ref
JAWS -- Jaffe WAR Score System
Developed by Jay Jaffe and introduced on Baseball Prospectus.
JAWS contains a combination of Career and 7-yr peak WAR totals
allowing for comparison to average Hall of Famers by position.
What I did was look at the difference between the players JAWS total and that avg total for a HOF at that position and convert the raw number of that gap to a percentage over or under the average. This is how the table came out ranked by that percentage
Player | WAR | WAR7 | JAWS | Jpos | Ov/Un Pos | % Ov/Un Pos | |
1 | Barry Bonds | 162.5 | 72.8 | 117.6 | 53.2 | 64.4 | 121% |
2 | Roger Clemens | 140.3 | 66.3 | 103.3 | 61.4 | 41.9 | 68% |
3 | Greg Maddux | 106.8 | 56.3 | 81.6 | 61.4 | 20.2 | 33% |
4 | Mike Piazza | 59.2 | 43.1 | 51.1 | 43.1 | 8 | 19% |
5 | Jeff Bagwell | 79.5 | 48.2 | 63.8 | 54 | 9.8 | 18% |
6 | Frank Thomas | 73.6 | 45.3 | 59.5 | 54 | 5.5 | 10% |
7 | Alan Trammell | 70.3 | 44.6 | 57.5 | 54.7 | 2.8 | 5% |
8 | Curt Schilling | 79.9 | 49 | 64.4 | 61.4 | 3 | 5% |
9 | Tim Raines | 69.1 | 42.2 | 55.6 | 53.2 | 2.4 | 5% |
10 | Mike Mussina | 83 | 44.5 | 63.8 | 61.4 | 2.4 | 4% |
11 | Tom Glavine | 81.4 | 44.3 | 62.9 | 61.4 | 1.5 | 2% |
12 | Rafael Palmeiro | 71.8 | 38.8 | 55.3 | 54 | 1.3 | 2% |
13 | Edgar Martinez | 68.3 | 43.5 | 55.9 | 55 | 0.9 | 2% |
14 | Larry Walker | 72.6 | 44.6 | 58.6 | 58.1 | 0.5 | 1% |
15 | Mark McGwire | 62 | 41.9 | 52 | 54 | -2 | -4% |
16 | Craig Biggio | 64.9 | 41.6 | 53.3 | 57 | -3.7 | -6% |
17 | Sammy Sosa | 58.4 | 43.7 | 51.1 | 58.1 | -7 | -12% |
18 | Fred McGriff | 52.6 | 36 | 44.3 | 54 | -9.7 | -18% |
19 | Luis Gonzalez | 51.5 | 33.8 | 42.7 | 53.2 | -10.5 | -20% |
20 | Jeff Kent | 55.2 | 35.6 | 45.4 | 57 | -11.6 | -20% |
21 | Lee Smith | 29.6 | 21.1 | 25.4 | 34.4 | -9 | -26% |
22 | Don Mattingly | 42.2 | 35.7 | 39 | 54 | -15 | -28% |
23 | Kenny Rogers | 51.4 | 35.6 | 43.5 | 61.4 | -17.9 | -29% |
24 | Moises Alou | 39.7 | 27.5 | 33.6 | 53.2 | -19.6 | -37% |
25 | Jack Morris | 44.1 | 32.8 | 38.4 | 61.4 | -23 | -37% |
26 | Ray Durham | 33.7 | 25.7 | 29.7 | 57 | -27.3 | -48% |
27 | Armando Benitez | 17.7 | 16.6 | 17.2 | 34.4 | -17.2 | -50% |
28 | Mike Timlin | 19.6 | 14 | 16.8 | 34.4 | -17.6 | -51% |
29 | Paul Lo Duca | 17.9 | 18.7 | 18.3 | 43.1 | -24.8 | -58% |
30 | Hideo Nomo | 21.1 | 22.8 | 22 | 61.4 | -39.4 | -64% |
31 | Eric Gagne | 11.9 | 12 | 12 | 34.4 | -22.4 | -65% |
32 | Richie Sexson | 17.9 | 18.8 | 18.4 | 54 | -35.6 | -66% |
33 | Todd Jones | 10.9 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 34.4 | -23.3 | -68% |
34 | Sean Casey | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 54 | -37.7 | -70% |
35 | Jacque Jones | 11.5 | 13.2 | 12.4 | 53.2 | -40.8 | -77% |
36 | J.T. Snow | 11 | 12.8 | 11.9 | 54 | -42.1 | -78% |
Steroids debate aside, this list looks about right to me. I personally have Schilling above Mussina and Glavine, but they are really interchangeable. In the real world, Bonds and Clemens aren't getting in any time soon, Glavine is a LOCK, Trammell will never get in, unfortunately. Raines is a long shot. Piazza and Bagwell are steroids suspects without any evidence. The HOF is a mess. But it's still fun to look back at guys careers and debate who were the best of the best.