Just for amusement, here are the projected NL West and NL Wild-Card final standings, if all the teams perform in their remaining X games, the way they have over the last X games. For instance: we have 19 games left, and have gone 8-11 over the last 19. Add that on to our current record, gives a final record of 79-83.
NL Wild Card and thoughts after the jump. Please remember though, this is purely for amusement, folks.
NL Wild Card
- Braves 91-71
- Brewers 86-76
- Phillies 85-77
- Cardinals 83-79
- Padres 82-80
- Dodgers 80-82
- D-backs 79-83
- Pirates 77-85
Obviously, teams may not necessarily repeat their performance over the last 18-20 games down the stretch. But it does show a couple of things. Firstly, the D-backs really need to step up their game, if they don't want their slim chances of reaching the post-season to evaporate, because their 8-11 record will not cut it. However, in our favor is a soft schedule, with the home and home series against the Giants being the only two of six sets against opponents who currently have a winning record. However, we do also have three games against San Diego: they have owned us, plus only the Reds and Nats have a better NL record than the Padres since the end of June.
Elsewhere, the Dodgers could end up with a record 2.5 games worse than they had last season, which would be immensely disappointing given both their strong start [they had a 7.5 game lead on May 27, having gone 32-15] and the apparent ineffectiveness of the blockbuster trade, Adrian Gonzalez having a .666 OPS since coming from the Red Sox. But that's still better than the Pirates. That number doesn't include this afternoon's loss to the Cubs: Pittsburgh are 5-17 in their past 22, have lost seven in a row, and they are now seriously struggling, needing to go 10-9 the rest of the way to get their first winning season in two decades.
It's the Phillies and Brewers who are hot to trot: while the first wild-card is certainly Atlanta's to lose, Philadelphia and Milwaukee are still very much in the race for the second spot, based on their recent performance. The latter are currently at 25-1 odds to win the NL pennant, which might conceivably be worth a flutter - the Reds are favorites, at 9/4, with the Nationals not far behind at 11/4. The Diamondbacks are rank outsiders at 60-1, which is largely understandable. However...maybe just for fun...